Today’s notice: The official NOTUS guide to Election Night 2024. What to look for, when to look for it, and the definitive answers on who is going to win. OK, maybe not that last one.
Polling’s Biggest Test…Ever?
So many weird things went on with polling this cycle. Endless arguments about the recall vote screen. Everyone just saying the word “herding” constantly to each other. Ann Selzer. How soon will we know if public polling has face-planted tonight?
Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman told us to watch Baldwin County in Georgia and Nash County in North Carolina for signs that Donald Trump is actually overperforming with Black voters. If he does very well or wins the counties, it’s a good sign for pollsters. If Kamala Harris does well in Cabarrus and Union counties in North Carolina — the Charlotte ‘burbs — it’s a sign that “she really has flipped some of those suburban women,” Wasserman said. Bad sign for pollsters not named Selzer.
Pollster Jim Hobart of Public Opinion Strategies, who polls for Republicans, echoed this take. But if Harris grows the suburban totals Joe Biden enjoyed in 2020 and Trump has a strong showing in heavily Black counties, “long night for us all.”
Drew Linzer, who polls at Civiqs, said maybe incessant poll-average-refreshers should relax. “Generally I’ve found it’s important to be patient, allow time for a large amount of votes to be counted,” he said, “and avoid jumping to conclusions too quickly about what the election means or whether polls were right or wrong.”
—Evan McMorris-Santoro
Is Kamala Harris Finding Joy?
How was the vice president feeling going into Election Day? “She’s nervous,” an operative close to her told NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright. Then again…
“I wouldn’t call it nervous,” a friend who has spoken with her in the last few days told us. Nervousness or not, those who’ve been around Harris say what she’s feeling is not based in fear or worry, but is a reflection of the reality that it’s up to the voters now.
“She’s tired, but she’s convicted, she is determined, she’s a smidge confident — not overly so,” a senior Democrat who saw her this week told NOTUS.
Front Page
- Trump’s Pennsylvania Ground Game Is MIA. Will It Matter?: Despite all of Harris’ GOTV advantages, the race is still tied.
- The High-Stakes State Supreme Court Races: There’s been a growing realization of their power post-Dobbs.
- The Elections Will Be Litigated: The courts are deciding who gets to vote and how.
- What Florida Democrats Are Actually Watching For: The party is looking beyond the presidential and Senate races.
- Will Black Men Really Stay Home on Election Day?: What early-voting data tells us about turnout among Black men.
- Iowa Could Turn Blue — In These Two House Races: Democrats have had their eyes on two congressional races for months.
Last View From the Battlegrounds
NOTUS reporters are fanned out across the country, following the final days of the cycle. What they are hearing:
Pennsylvania: The big cheese(steak). GOP operatives tell us they feel good about their low-propensity voter efforts. Dems say their GOTV operation is paying off. AFL-CIO political director Steve Smith told us it’s all about Pittsburgh for the labor vote, and he’s been “seeing a surge of support for Harris at doors in recent days.” If Bob Casey is “running ahead, it bodes well for the union vote across the “blue wall,” he added.
Georgia: GOP strategist Martha Zoller told NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause she’s looking to see if “Nikki Haley women” are returning to the Trump fold. Matthew Gunning, a political science professor at Georgia Gwinnett College, is eyeing how Dems do in the Atlanta suburbs. Margins in Hancock and Taliaferro counties will show if Trump has actually made gains with Black rural voters.
Michigan: A senior Democratic operative on the ground texted us “cautiously good!” when asked how the Harris team feels. NOTUS’ Mark Alfred worked the line hours ahead of Trump’s final rally in Grand Rapids. Trump supporters were “hopeful but not certain,” he reported.
Nevada: It’s GOTV vs. voter registration here. If Democratic strongholds like Clark and Washoe counties turn out well, Democrats may have a good night. Smith told us pro-Harris union turnout operations were “at 161% of our final four days’ door-knocking goal, so we expect to see movement there.”
Arizona: Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin told NOTUS’ Torrence Banks if turnout is high, it’s possible Dems flip the 1st and 6th District House races. Democratic consultant Adam Kinsey said the 2nd District could also be a surprise if Democrats have a good night in the state.
North Carolina: Jess Jollett and Ashlei Blue, leaders of Dem-aligned groups in the state, say they’re pushing for at least 250k Black voters to turnout today to match 68% Black voter turnout in 2020. The goal is 300k. On the Republican side, NOTUS’ Calen Razor finds insiders watching Gov. Roy Cooper’s hometown. “Will Democrats shed a point or two or more there with the hometown boy not being a candidate for office for the first time in almost two generations?” Matt Mercer of the NCGOP said of Nash County.
Trend Alert: Planning to Go to Bed Early
Hard to say if it’s just the Red Bull talking, but all types of people told us they are actually expecting to know who wins the White House tonight. Georgia results might come in early, for example.
Strategist Steve Schmidt predicted Monday on Julie Mason’s SiriusXM show it would be an early Election Night. Operatives we reached out to said the same thing. And even Wasserman said he may have already seen enough to See Enough early in the night.
“I feel like I’ll have a very good indication of how the night is looking early on,” he told us. “But I can’t tell the world because I’ll be making House calls for the NBC Decision Desk like I always have.”
—Evan McMorris-Santoro
Four Bellwether Counties to Watch
Cumberland County, Pennsylvania: This county doesn’t get the attention others do, but it could be crucial, Wasserman said. Gov. Josh Shapiro won it big. Trump won it in 2020. Harris needs to show she can put up numbers close to Biden’s if she wants to be competitive.
Wayne County, Michigan: The Trump campaign and the state GOP see an opportunity to make inroads here with Black men. It also has the highest concentration of Arab Americans of anywhere in the country, some of whom have bucked Harris over her position on Israel.
Nash County, North Carolina: It’s one of just a handful of blue-to-red-to-blue counties.
Gwinnett County, Georgia: There are more Republicans in Gwinnett than any other county in the state, but Harris has heavily targeted white suburban women to close the margins.
—Katherine Swartz
Will the Freedom Caucus Hate Exec Orders if They’re Trump’s?
A look into one possible post-election future from NOTUS’ Reese Gorman: Democrats win the House, Trump wins the White House.
“Gonna be much more hot on the executive side then the leg side,” a former Trump White House aide told Reese. “HFC won’t like that, but Trump likes to get wins and get points on the board and he’s gonna want to get a win right out of the gate and not twist some arms on something they don’t agree with.”
Be Social: What’s for Dinner
Working election night means newsroom dinner. NOTUS investigative reporter Byron Tau ran down what’s on the menu for some of the Beltway’s most prominent reporters. Here’s what our sources are telling us.
CNN is expecting Mediterranean food with late-night Chick-fil-A. Politico is expecting a fajita bar with a late-night pizza delivery. Bloomberg is expecting Chinese food. The Wall Street Journal’s expecting to get Nooshi.
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