Donald Trump and Republicans have spent countless hours telling voters about their big plans if the former president retakes the White House. But those plans have always had a caveat: the GOP also controlling Congress, which is no sure bet.
Republicans feel good about their chances of retaking the Senate. Democrats defending West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has always seemed like a recipe for a GOP majority in the chamber.
But in the closing weeks of the election, the prospect of Republicans retaining the House has started to look more like an open question. If Republicans win the White House and Senate but lose the House, expect Washington and governing to be messier. A lot messier.
Just like there were during the final two years of Trump’s presidency, there would almost certainly be government funding standoffs, deals that are made and then reneged, and an adversarial relationship with House Democrats as they take on the role of watchdog to Trump’s administration.
Meanwhile, Trump would struggle to get much of anything done, just as he did for the back half of his first presidency. But one thing he could accomplish, sources pointed out to NOTUS, is confirming judges and transforming the administrative state.
Early on in the cycle, Sen. Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Trump that the most important thing for his second administration would be to have a Republican Senate to confirm his judges and nominees, according to a senior GOP aide.
“From Trump’s perspective, the Senate is more important than the House. Because it confirms his nominees and the actual people who will set policy in the administration, his cabinet,” the aide said. “That is why the Senate is so important and that’s why he’s working so closely with Daines so he can have a good chance to confirm his nominees in the Senate.”
All of that would help Trump implement his plans to reduce the size of the administrative state and eliminate many regulations. And much of what Trump wants to do in that sphere could be done through executive action, though Democrats could hold up many of his plans through policy riders on must-pass government funding bills.
Both parties would be teed up for huge fights on those spending bills, with Democrats looking to block some of Trump’s most aggressive executive actions and Republicans looking to get funding concessions — like a border wall — in exchange for just keeping the government’s lights on.
Of course, sources told NOTUS Trump would try to accomplish some of his agenda quickly through a number of executive actions, which would almost certainly anger Democrats and some House Freedom Caucus members who have broadly criticized the use of executive orders to accomplish tasks that used to be within Congress’ purview.
“Gonna be much more hot on the executive side then the leg side,” a former Trump White House aide told NOTUS. “HFC won’t like that, but Trump likes to get wins and get points on the board and he’s gonna want to get a win right out of the gate and not twist some arms on something they don’t agree with.”
A source close to the Trump campaign said the former president would likely issue executive orders pertaining to border security and a border wall, putting the matter to the courts to decide if Trump can effectively appropriate money for a border wall without Congress’ approval. This source also said Trump would undo some of Joe Biden’s regulations on oil and gas.
Ramping up U.S. production on oil and gas, which is already at a record level, is a foundational piece of Trump’s economic plan.
But passing big legislative priorities like extending Trump’s tax cuts and tackling Obamacare would be more challenging.
“If Democrats have control of anything, they’re going to be pretty determined to do it ‘my way or the highway,’” one former Trump White House official told NOTUS. “People sleep on the idea that Trump is gonna be easier to get along with without a reelection over his head. I think he’s gonna want to try to make an effort to be a bit tamer in the second term to ride off into the sunset and build a rapport with people.”
Another source close to the Trump campaign seconded that sentiment, telling NOTUS that Trump is “someone who’s proven over time in business and politics that he wants to get something to done.”
If he has to work with Democrats to do that, this person said, he would.
Democrats also would have some incentives to work with Trump.
While a strong contingent of Democrats would advocate for the “resistance” tactics of Trump’s first term, letting the Trump tax cuts expire and effectively raising rates on Americans would be extremely unpopular. Even if Democrats could keep a Trump tax plan off the House floor, doing so could be politically damaging.
Instead, Democrats may look to work with Trump. Although they might try to prevent proposals like cutting the corporate tax rate to 15%, they could go along with an extension of the current individual tax rates.
A big part of the incentive to work with Trump is that if Democrats win the House, they’re likely to have a slim majority — and retaining that majority in 2026 would be of paramount importance to prevent the GOP’s unified control of government. There would almost certainly be some Democrats who’d look for spots to work with Republicans and the White House.
“It’s not a good electoral strategy or government strategy to oppose him on everything he wants,” one senior aide to a moderate Democrat told NOTUS. “We can’t just go back to 2017 resistance mode.”
Sources suggested Trump would look directly toward the Blue Dogs, a caucus of moderate Democrats.
With a small House majority, Trump may only need a handful of Democrats to join Republicans to approve his legislative plans.
“In 2025, I believe Trump is going to be in the White House,” Blue Dogs co-chair Rep. Jared Golden of Maine wrote in an op-ed published in July. “Maine’s representatives will need to work with him when it benefits Mainers, hold him accountable when it does not and work independently across the aisle no matter what.”
The trick for Trump and Republicans would be to put Democrats in tough spots. They would have to offer legislation that Democrats could conceivably support — and that voters would fault them for opposing. Go too far, such as by insisting on huge corporate tax cuts and an Obamacare repeal, and Democrats would happily stand against Trump. Don’t go far enough, and Trump will hardly accomplish anything.
But if he could offer a more middle-of-the-road approach, sources said, he may succeed in picking off some of his opposition.
Pundits have always believed Trump wants to be a dealmaker president. His strong support among Republicans could be an opportunity to work with Democrats and dare Republicans to oppose him. That dynamic has never really played out, however. While Trump has made deals with Democrats — like on an assault weapons ban and immigration — he’s always reversed himself.
Still, even if Trump governs like a Republican — as expected — there would be some Democrats trying to govern with him. Then again, there’d also be some Democrats eager to keep him in check.
“If by chance Trump wins and the Democrats are in the majority, you can be sure that there will be very aggressive work done in the Oversight and Judiciary Committees to be a bulwark against Trump’s worst impulses and to do everything possible to protect the country and preserve our democracy,” Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman told NOTUS.
The possibility of a Trump White House and a Democratic House may seem unlikely. Pollsters have typically believed the two outcomes would be largely intertwined. But as the election draws to a close, there are a number of pathways for Trump to win where Republicans lose House seats in states like California and New York. On Monday, the famed election forecaster Larry Sabato predicted a 218-217 House majority for Democrats.
The House map is a true toss up for Republicans, and they’re on defense in a number of seats that could determine the majority. Even if they do retain the House, odds are good that the majority will be slim, meaning the most conservative bills would have trouble passing anyway.
On Friday, Cook Political Report moved six House races in the direction of Democrats, and sources familiar with GOP efforts to keep the House are saying their numbers are making them cautious about what the balance of the House would be.
One source familiar with House GOP efforts said the most likely scenario is either a 223- to 224-seat majority, or a 211- to 212-seat minority. Either scenario would pose problems for Republicans, but they’re hoping it’s the former.
—
Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.