Iowa Could Turn Blue — In These Two House Races

After a well-respected poll suggested Vice President Kamala Harris has momentum in the unlikely state of Iowa, Democrats in the state are once again reminding the rest of the country to reconsider how red they think the state is.

And they would like attention on their down-ballot races.

The political consensus outside of the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, by famed pollster J. Ann Selzer, that dropped this weekend is that former President Donald Trump will likely win the state. But national Democrats have had their eyes on two congressional races for months where their candidates are polling just ahead of the incumbents they’re challenging. That’s where they hope to add Democrats to Iowa’s all-Republican congressional delegation.

“Everybody talks about Iowa as red, but Democrats are losing in Iowa by incredibly small margins,” Rob Sand, the Iowa state auditor and a member of the Democratic Party, told NOTUS.

This cycle, he and others are hoping they can turn that around.

Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts are two target districts for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is running against former state legislator Christina Bohannan in a southeast Iowa district, where polling shows this has been a tight race. A Des Moines Register poll has Democrats ahead by 16 percentage points in Bohannan and Miller-Meeks’ district.

“If you look at that poll, I should be clutching my fake pearls and hiding in my basement,” Miller-Meeks said on Monday, according to the Des Moines Register. “I’m doing neither. That’s because I have tremendous hope, faith, belief in the people of this state and the people of this country.”

Miller-Meeks won Iowa’s then 2nd Congressional District by only six votes in 2020, making it one of the closest congressional elections in decades. Miller-Meeks is up for a rematch against Bohannan, who she beat by 7 percentage points in 2022.

In the neighboring 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Zach Nunn trails Democrat Lanon Baccam in what polling shows has also been a close race. Nunn was also elected by a small margin — just over 2,000 votes in 2022.

Neither of the sitting lawmakers’ campaigns responded to requests for comment.

“We are confident Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win because they have delivered strong results for their communities,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement to NOTUS, adding that Baccam and Bohannan are “too out of touch for Iowa.”

The two races have been a priority for the DCCC since at least January, when Bohannan and Baccam were added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which gives organizational and fundraising help to “top-tier candidates” who may flip a House seat. In August, the DCCC announced millions worth of ad buys in the districts, when the races were still projected as leaning Republican. The Cook Political Report lists them both as “Republican Toss-Ups.”

“We have districts in places that may not be states that are targeted for the presidential race, but where we have congressional opportunities to pick up seats,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene told NOTUS in an interview on Friday, in which she said Iowa was on her list of places to visit before Election Day.

Bohannan and Baccam have consistently outraised and outspent their opponents this cycle.

Abortion is a top issue on Iowa voters’ minds, as Iowans have been under a six-week abortion ban since July. Bohannan and Baccam have both run on their opponents’ anti-abortion rights records.

“Voters are excited about Christina’s campaign because they know she always has and always will put middle-class families first to lower costs, invest in public education and restore reproductive freedom,” Bohannan’s campaign manager, Jindalae Suh, said in a statement to NOTUS.

Democrats in the state have long been accustomed to getting national political attention because of the Iowa caucus. But national Democrats removed its first-in-the-nation nominating contest this cycle after the botched 2020 caucuses and after other parts of the party called for a more diverse nominating presidential calendar.

For Democrats there, however, close races where Iowa Democrats have a chance don’t come as a surprise, said state Sen. Rob Hogg.

“Iowa is a much more purple state than our current elected officials reflect,” Hogg said.

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Em Luetkemeyer is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow. Riley Rogerson contributed reporting.