Today’s notice: Well, that was a long month. Senators’ odds for a Blanche confirmation. Ryan Mackenzie returns Adam Kidan’s money. Democratic AGs say they’re gonna have a big cycle. The winding paths of two South Carolina political careers. And: Regulating the wokeness out of AI is harder than it sounds.
THE LATEST
Who’s happier to see July end? Mercury’s second retrograde ended eight days ago, but that was not enough to stop a seemingly endless torrent of terrible, horrible, no good, very bad headlines that have bedeviled both sides this month.
Donald Trump started the month with stormy weather almost canceling his Fourth of July fireworks. It proved to be a sign of things to come. The war with Iran flared back up, the economic indicators went back down. The courts pummeled him, forcing him to pay E. Jean Carroll and withdraw subpoenas issued to New York Times reporters in an attempt to find out who leaked that the much-ballyhooed new Air Force One was not exactly ready for prime time.
Trending
The last week brought some astoundingly bad polling numbers, increased oil prices, the Senate refusing to do his bidding on the SAVE America Act and acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s nomination for the permanent gig sputtering.
What didn’t happen: The hot MAGA summer of lowered prices and talk of tax cuts some Republicans hoped for. If a shellacking comes from voters in November, remember how things never gelled in July.
The Democrats did their best to have a worse month than the GOP. The Graham Platner-pocalypse showed the left has a lot to learn about picking primary candidates. Several embarrassing faceplants by DCCC-backed candidates showed the establishment also has a lot to learn about that. Oh, also parts of the DNC appear to be a dumpster fire — the parts of it that aren’t being actively scammed by fraudsters, that is.
Democratic primary voters in Maine were, of course, disenfranchised cuz of all that, and now thousands more might see their votes wasted in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. A lot of people did what they were asked to do in Wisconsin and voted early for one of the two candidates who dropped out this month.
What this portends: If Democrats manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in November, just remember how they spent their July.
What comes next? Let us again consult the astrology charts: The Lion’s Gate Portal opened up Tuesday, peaks Aug. 8 and stays open until the 12th, which happens to be a few days after the Senate leaves for recess. We have no idea what these words actually mean but it’s all about cosmic alignment, according to NOTUS’ Manuela Silva — letting go of the old and being clear about your intentions moving forward.
Open tabs: Trump Announces Deal for ‘Complete Disarmament’ of Hamas (NOTUS) Midterm election fears run high, poll finds (Semafor); Senate Finance Republicans kill bid to stop Trump IRS audit-immunity deal (Politico); Taco Bell’s Plan to Win Back Customers After Cyclospora Outbreak (WSJ); Joe Rogan warns liberals against trying to turn Texas blue (Fox)
From the Hill
Blanche’s odds: Todd Blanche has had a bumpy week. Is Trump about to be rebuked by the YOLO Caucus? Or is this just some noise before the Republican-controlled Senate gives the Republican president the nominee he wants? Manuela asked senators their odds for Blanche’s eventual confirmation as attorney general. They changed throughout the day, but not by much.
“I would say, based on the comments that I’ve seen coming from the White House, not very good,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said earlier in the day.
“67.7%,” YOLOer (and part-time bolo-er!) Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) joked after Trump’s Truth Social post suggesting he’d withdraw Blanche’s nomination if Tillis and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) don’t get on board.
“You know, I can be really hopeful and say I hope that that happens before we leave,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-West Virginia) said. “But it wouldn’t surprise me that what we have to do is hold the nomination off until September.”
“I believe we will,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said when asked if the Senate will see Blanche confirmed. Any timeline predictions for that, senator? “Nope!”
“I’m not in that at all. So I have no idea,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) said.
From the campaign trail
Refund incoming: Pennsylvania’s 7th: Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie returned a donation from Adam Kidan, a convicted fraudster whom Trump pardoned three days after he donated to Mackenzie, NOTUS’ Avani Kalra reports. The refund comes one day after Avani reported on the donation. Mackenzie faces Democrat Bob Brooks in one of the most competitive House races in the country.
First on NOTUS: Democratic AGs say internal numbers show wind at their backs. A new state-of-the-race memo marking 100-ish days till the general election from the Democratic Attorneys General Association suggests the group is poised to capitalize on the outsize attention attorneys general have seen in the lawsuit-heavy Trump 2.0. DAGA has raised $20.3 million since Jan. 1, a total that is close to double what it raised in the 2022 cycle. The memo points to internal polling the association says shows Democrats can “flip 2-3 seats from red to blue” in November.
THE BIG ONE
Un-woke-ing, another job AI cannot actually do: The Trump administration is trying to regulate “wokeness” in artificial intelligence. What that looks like in practice is turning out to be difficult to define as the General Services Administration tries to draw up contracting language for the second time, NOTUS’ Natalie Alms reports.
The government’s draft language says it would test systems for bias, but it’s unclear how to do so. Even if a bias test can be spun up, contractors would have to pay decommissioning costs if their software is found to be swayed too woke, and could face legal exposure. “That’s a huge penalty for something that I think is such a mushy framework,” Jessica Tillipman, associate dean for government procurement law studies at GWU, told Natalie.
NOTUS METRO
Sign up for our local newsletter, written by Martin Austermuhle and Zara Norman.
Local news: D.C.’s Worst Landlord Is Its Housing Authority, by Zara Norman
Sports desk: The Commanders’ Defense Has Made a Strong First Impression at Camp, by Martenzie Johnson
NOTUS PERSPECTIVES
“I came to Michigan expecting to dislike El-Sayed’s candidacy,” writes Dana Milbank today at NOTUS Perspectives. Instead, he reached a very different set of conclusions: that the Michigan Democratic primary isn’t really an ideological civil war, and Abdul El-Sayed isn’t as scary as the establishment thinks.
NEW ON NOTUS
A tale of two South Carolinians: The career arcs of Mark Sanford and Lindsey Graham tell the story of the modern Republican Party, NOTUS’ Paul Kane writes. Once close friends — Graham was the godfather to one of Sanford’s sons — the pairs’ political fortunes took a divergent course after Trump changed the GOP. Graham got on board, Sanford never really did. Tracing their steps over the years, Paul details the path that has led to perhaps the most unlikely place: Sanford running a long-shot bid against Graham’s sister in the Republican primary for Graham’s old Senate seat.
More: Defense Hawks Challenge the White House Push for a Narrow Reconciliation Bill, by Joe Gould and Avani Kalra
Democrats Mobilize Over Fears Trump Will Deploy Troops to Polls, by Joe Gould and Kadia Goba
Judge Appears Skeptical of Trump Administration’s Arguments About Anthropic Posing Security Threat, by Hamed Ahmadi
Trump-Themed Passport Rollout Goes National, by Jenna Monnin
NOT US
- Bipartisan Anger Grows at Pentagon’s Delayed ‘Forever Chemicals’ Cleanups, by Hiroko Tabuchi for The New York Times
- ‘It’s the honor system’: New Jersey’s noncitizen voter registration brings private worries into the open, by Matt Friedman for Politico
- A new media ecosystem is taking root on the left, reshaping Democratic politics, by Ali Swenson for The Associated Press
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton. Photo by Alex Brandon/AP.
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