Mixed Day for Dictatorship Predictions

Today’s notice: Trump & Co. are the Loosiers in Indiana. Twenty House Republicans vote to overturn a Trump E.O. A confusing and bad day for FEMA. What an audit of the NRA reveals. And: The immigration gold card is live, to the surprise of Congress.

THE LATEST

Republicans enter their drama era: Predictions of an endless Donald Trump reign fueled by unbending party unity behind his every whim may have been a bit premature.

“It’s time to say no to outsiders who are trying to run our state,” Indiana state Sen. Spencer Deery, one of the Republicans who joined with Democrats yesterday to vote down Trump’s demand for new congressional district lines, told NOTUS’ Christa Dutton. The Republican-controlled upper chamber ended up voting “no” on new maps 31-19.

Time for another episode of “if the shoe was on the other foot”: If another president had dispatched their VP to cajole state leaders into voting for a new map; if their top political guru had hinted all his dark arts would be summoned to make it happen; if top national party leaders like the speaker of the House had agreed to stick their necks out, and the state’s governor, too; if the president had promised to primary anyone who refused to back the plan — and they then lost? It would be one of the biggest political scandals of their term.

“I wasn’t working on it very hard,” Trump said after the vote. “I wasn’t very much involved.”

Subject change alert: “Trump is expected to push the government to dramatically loosen federal restrictions on marijuana,” The Washington Post reported hours after the Indiana vote.

If that doesn’t distract you, how about this? Last night, Trump announced that he was handing a pardon to former Colorado county clerk Tina Peters, the only Trump ally currently in prison for 2020 election-related crimes.

The only problem: She was convicted on state charges, which are near universally held to be outside the reach of a presidential pardon. But Peters’ lawyer, Peter Ticktin, made the case directly to Trump in a letter this week that he “has the power to grant a pardon in any of the states of the United States.”

“The question of whether a president can pardon for state offenses has never been raised in any court,” Ticktin wrote. That likely won’t be the case for long.

Open tabs: White House Sanctions Six Ships, Says It Won’t Rule Out More Seizures (NOTUS); Justice Department fails to reindict Letitia James for a second time (CNN); The Senate Goes Back to Square One on Health Care (NOTUS); Abrego Garcia Freed From Detention After Judge’s Order (NOTUS)

From the Hill

Speaking of Republican drama, 20 of them voted with Democrats to overturn Trump’s executive order ending federal workers’ bargaining rights. Rep. Jared Golden’s discharge petition forced the vote on the bipartisan bill that Mike Johnson refused to bring up for a vote earlier this year.

Republicans really don’t want you to jump to conclusions about this, NOTUS’ Oriana Gonzalez reports. “In every healthy relationship, folks are going to disagree,” Rep. Nick LaLota said.

Talk about disagreeing: “Here we have right in front of us, bigger than Dallas, a chance to address the cost of living without Democratic obstructionism. And we won’t take advantage of it,” Sen. John Kennedy grumbled to reporters earlier this week about his own party’s leadership.

Kennedy wants a new reconciliation bill focusing on deregulation. But John Thune, he says, won’t bring it to the Senate floor. “It’s always better in my view at 60,” Thune told reporters, arguing for a bipartisan bill.

One thing Republicans can agree on: Eight GOP senators told NOTUS’ Avani Kalra they could not think of a Republican who messages quite as well as Trump does on affordability. An AP-NORC poll released yesterday found public support for Trump’s handling of the economy had reached its lowest number in either of his terms.

From the White House

Curiouser and curiouser: Things have been, well, not great with Kristi Noem and FEMA for a while now, but on Thursday, they got plain confusing. Shortly after Noem abruptly left a House hearing, saying she had to chair a FEMA Review Council meeting announcing its recommendations for the future of the agency, the meeting was canceled.

Tensions are rising around Noem, sources tell NOTUS’ Anna Kramer — specifically when it comes to this report. Noem swept in and changed the council’s report to suggest that her agency maintain control over a much-diminished FEMA, per The Washington Post. The council had originally concluded that FEMA should be made more independent.

NOTUS INVESTIGATION

Rifling through the couch cushions at the NRA: Last year, the National Rifle Association liquidated nearly $40 million worth of stock, fixed-income securities and other holdings. The group’s investment portfolio shrank to less than $33 million in 2024, down from more than $72 million the year before. NOTUS’ Dave Levinthal and Violet Jira report on an independent audit that shows just how dire the financial straits have become for what was once one of the flushest and most powerful groups in politics.

THE BIG ONE

‘The Trump Gold Card is Live!’ reads an email sent out yesterday from the Department of Commerce, announcing that applications are officially open.

The idea is to grant fast-tracked permanent residency via existing EB-1 and EB-2 visa programs to those willing to give the United States “a $1 million gift.” Corporate sponsors can also give the U.S. $2 million per employee.

The email came as a surprise. Most Republicans that Emily asked said they hadn’t realized the application had officially launched, taking the gold card from proposal for Congress to consider to thing done without Congress. Not many were perturbed by that, though, except for moderate Rep. Don Bacon.

“We have Article 1 authorities, so we should live up to that,” he said. “I just don’t believe the executive branch should arbitrarily change rules.”

NEW ON NOTUS

A Democrat’s Netflix binge: Shares, that is. Rep. Cleo Fields recently purchased between $200,000 and $500,000 worth of Netflix stock, according to a review of disclosures by Dave. Fields is the guy, you may recall, who bought between $80,000 and $200,000 of Oracle stock in the days leading up to (and the day after) it was announced the company was part of Trump’s plan for TikTok.

Not convinced: Democrats aren’t sold on the Fix Our Forests Act, a bipartisan bill to expand the U.S. Forest Service’s authority to clear underbrush. Why? They’re worried it will give the Trump administration a green light to sideline Indigenous groups. “There’s no notice and comment opportunity,” Sen. Adam Schiff said, NOTUS’ Helen Huiskes reports.

More: Democrats Return Henry Cuellar to Powerful Spending Post After Trump Pardon, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

Trump Signs Executive Order Aimed at Curbing State-Level AI Regulation, by Samuel Larreal

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

Why 2026 Will Be the Year American Politics Finally Returns to Normal: It’s been a weird 10 years and a truly bonkers 2025. But signs are piling up that sanity is set for a major comeback.

Supreme Court decisions from this term that will prove consequential: A NOTUS forum featuring Erwin Chemerinsky, Luis Fuentes-Rohwer, Sarah Isgur, Leah Litman, Devon Ombres and Ilya Shapiro.

NOT US

• I Asked the Pentagon About Pete Hegseth’s Mentor. Then the Threats Started. By Dan Friedman for Mother Jones
  
• Jasmine Crockett vs. Ken Paxton Is the Race Texans Deserve, by Christopher Hooks for Texas Monthly
  
• As Trump misses deportation goals, ICE pushes migrants to give up their cases, by Ted Hesson and Kristina Cooke for Reuters
  

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