The Speaker Speaks

Today’s notice: NOTUS sits down with Mike Johnson. Examining the power of a Trump endorsement. Why Trump’s endorsement of new coal mining hasn’t resulted in much new mining. And: Exclusive polling on Americans’ skepticism toward creating Skynet.

THE LATEST

What’s on Mike Johnson’s mind? The House speaker sat for an extended interview this week for On NOTUS, our podcast hosted by Reese Gorman. The conversation came at a challenging time for the razor-thin majority Johnson is in charge of corralling — the chances for major legislation seem dim, party infighting seems likely and a historically challenging midterm looms.

“Fear is not in my vocabulary,” Johnson told Reese during the interview. Some moments that capture the uncomfortable political moment the speaker is in:

On the war in Iran and its impact on domestic affordability politics: “The mission is virtually accomplished now as it was defined.” Donald Trump says “the same thing to us privately as he says publicly” about the war’s timeline, Johnson said. “So we think this gets resolved quickly, and then we get right back on track.”

On how the politics of immigration enforcement has changed: “Look, I think there’s a recognition that there needed to be a change, a shift in strategy and implementation. And you’re seeing that.”

There will be further shifts if Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin is confirmed to lead DHS, Johnson said. “He’s a thoughtful guy. He’s pragmatic. He will uphold the rule of law but do it in a way that recognizes the dignity of people.”

On the president’s bromance with Zohran Mamdani: “Look, they’re New Yorkers, OK?”

On liking his midterm odds at a time when few others do: “I have a very boring 90-minute slideshow I can show you, to show you all the reasons we’re gonna win, OK?”

“It boils down to a couple things,” Johnson went on. He pointed to strategist Mark Penn’s latest public polling (conducted Feb. 25-26) that found a jump ball on the generic ballot. (Other public polling has found a small but consistent Democratic lead.) Democrats “don’t have a message,” the speaker said. “The whole game plan for them is ‘we hate Trump.’ Well, great. That’s not exactly an agenda to run on.”

“The entire control of Congress, and thus the direction of the country, comes down to about 31 seats,” Johnson said, citing a “small map” due to redistricting. “We are putting lead on target.”

Open tabs: Rescue effort under way as US military refueling plane crashes in Iraq (Guardian); The Republican Who Wants to Banish His Own Constituents (Atlantic); How the Pentagon Got Hooked on AI War Machines (Bloomberg); Mullin departure creates ‘House whisperer’ vacancy for Senate GOP (The Hill)

From the campaign trail

Still the primary clearer? Despite flagging approval ratings and term limits, a Trump endorsement is still the best tool Republican strategists insist there is when it comes to ending expensive primary fights, NOTUS’ Torrence Banks reports.

This is a reality few are willing to question. After Michael T. Lowry, a Republican pollster, released numbers last month suggesting the endorsement of Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama carried more influence in the state, Britt was among the first to call it fake news. “There is nothing more powerful than a Trump endorsement,” she told Torrence.

The entire GOP Senate primary in Texas remains about who can win Trump’s backing. Other races this cycle — the Republican Senate primary in Louisiana, for one — are tests of how powerful his endorsement still is.

The thinking behind the faith in a Trump endorsement: “Trump is trusted by a great many people that are Republican,” Stan Barnes, a lobbyist and former Arizona state senator, explained. “And it is so much easier to say ‘what does Trump want?’ as a Republican voter than it is to actually research the issue or to try to make up your own mind.”

From the White House

Mining indifference: The Trump administration is offering up millions of acres of public lands for coal mining — but companies aren’t placing bids, NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak reports. These failed auctions “are really an indicator that there’s not much appetite for new coal, or the appetite is at prices that are so low as to be not worthwhile for the government to even consider them, which is extraordinary given the pro-coal policies of this administration,” Seth Feaster, a coal industry analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Shifra.

Environmentalists blame a changing energy economy. “The coal operators in the West have secured a lot of leases. They have enough leases to keep their existing mines operating for probably at least a decade,” Shiloh Hernandez, an attorney at Earthjustice, said. “To expand money past 10 years is a proposition that they don’t see any market value for.”

The industry blames Joe Biden. “It’s important to recognize that the prior administration actively worked through anti-coal policies to erode all confidence in the longevity of the coal industry, and so it’s no surprise that some of the initial sales reflected how challenging it has been for coal producers,” Ashley Burke, a spox for the National Mining Association, said.

From the Hill

Iran determined to strike in U.S.? “I think it’s fair to say it’s a higher risk now,” Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly said yesterday, echoing fears from lawmakers that Iran-inspired domestic attacks might happen as a result of America’s ongoing combat operations overseas. NOTUS’ Hamed Ahmadi reports that lawmakers on the Hill said they have not heard anything beyond public reporting that suggests a specific threat.

The strange case of an FBI alert about potential Iranian drone strikes in California fueled fears this week, even as the sourcing unraveled. It was based on a single unverified email tip shared through a law-enforcement intelligence network and did not identify specific targets, timing or a credible threat, Hamed writes. Karoline Leavitt posted: “TO BE CLEAR: No such threat from Iran to our homeland exists, and it never did.”

From the future

First on NOTUS: Americans fear the killer AI robot. Most Americans doubt the Pentagon can use AI responsibly, a new poll obtained exclusively by NOTUS’ Samuel Larreal found. The survey, commissioned by Americans for Responsible Innovation, found that 61% of adults don’t trust the government to use AI for surveillance without abuse, and over 70% of them think there should be human judgment over AI weapons.

Last month, the Pentagon designated Anthropic as a supply-chain risk after a disagreement over AI-powered surveillance and weapons. Since then, the Pentagon has faced mounting scrutiny over its use of AI.

NEW ON NOTUS

Trump picks a replacement for Kari Lake: The president yesterday tapped a top State Department official, Sarah B. Rogers, to take over at the U.S. Agency for Global Media, just days after a federal judge ruled that Lake had been running the agency unlawfully.

In a post to X, Lake called the judge “rotund” and said she planned to continue serving as deputy CEO.

More: Chris Wright Says He’ll Personally Review All DOE Communications After Oil Tanker Snafu, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

NOT US

• The Women Leaving the New Right, by Sam Adler-Bell for New York magazine
  
• Shot by Border Patrol, Then Called a “Domestic Terrorist,” by Ruby Cramer for The New Yorker
  
• Trump’s New Cyber-First War Strategy, by Rishi Iyengar for Foreign Policy

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