Does a Trump Endorsement Mean What It Used To?

Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, says President Donald Trump has a magic touch when it comes to making endorsements.

Hudson, who has long played a key role at the NRCC, said that Trump has been valuable in choosing candidates for the House Republicans’ campaign arm to endorse this cycle. As a result, Trump has “helped clear primary fields” in “competitive” districts.

“We certainly talk more, coordinate better than we did before,” Hudson said about the difference between working with Trump in his first and second terms. “I don’t think it was ever bad. I just think we’ve gotten better at communicating early. What candidates are you talking to? What do you see out there? And we try to make sure we’re closely aligned.”

The president’s use of his endorsement to strategically place candidates in certain races ahead of primaries has been clear this cycle. Rep. Julia Letlow, a Republican from Louisiana, decided to enter the Senate race and challenge incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy after Trump publicly called on her to run. A former chair of the Alabama Republican Party, John Wahl, announced his run for lieutenant governor after unexpectedly receiving an endorsement from Trump.

In Arizona, Karrin Taylor Robson received Trump’s endorsement early in the state’s governor’s race. But after Trump also endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs in the race last April, Taylor Robson dropped out of the race in February.

White House allies were bullish about the influence he has on races.

“It seems like it got more powerful from 2020 to 2024 when he was figuring out if he was going to run again,” one Republican strategist working on multiple Trump-endorsed campaigns told NOTUS about the president’s endorsement. “And now that he’s president for the second time, it’s the most powerful thing in American politics.”

“A lot of these races across the country, you’re seeing the people kind of put their egos aside and get on the side of the president and his team and the MAGA agenda,” the strategist continued. “You’re starting to see that the really good people are understanding that, I am probably not going to beat the president’s endorsement. That’s how powerful it is. And so I want to make sure I’m supporting him in his agenda.”

Blake Miguez, a Republican state senator from Louisiana, decided to drop out of the U.S. Senate race after not getting Trump’s endorsement, and instead decided to run to replace Letlow in the House. Miguez, who ultimately did get an endorsement from Trump in the race for Letlow’s seat, told NOTUS that the president’s endorsement cleared “nearly half of the Republican primary field.”

“Trump country folks have a lot of confidence in the president,” Miguez said during an interview at the start of March. “When they [candidates] stay into the race or they push things in defiance to the president, they have to answer their constituency and/or make a case that they’re a better candidate. But if I had to bet, I’m betting on President Trump.”

The Atlantic on Wednesday reported that Miguez’s former girlfriend accused him of rape and abuse in a 2007 police report. The outlet reported that Trump endorsed Miguez without knowledge of the allegations. A spokesperson for Miguez’s campaign told NOTUS that the allegations are “categorically false.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s endorsements haven’t guaranteed victory in the past. Mark Burns, a pastor, lost to now-Rep. Sheri Biggs in a 2024 runoff election in South Carolina, in which the governor and Trump endorsed separate candidates. Republican Sen. John Curtis beat Trump’s endorsed candidate to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney in Utah during the same cycle. And in Georgia, the president endorsed former Sen. David Perdue for governor in 2021, only for him to decisively lose to Gov. Brian Kemp in the primary.

But Republicans still believe a Trump endorsement boosts their chances of success.

“Does Donald Trump’s endorsement help a Republican candidate in a Republican primary? Undoubtedly,” Mo Brooks, a former Republican congressman from Alabama who lost Trump’s endorsement to Sen. Katie Britt for his comments on the 2020 election, said. “Does it guarantee victory? No. Ultimately the candidate has to prove his muster.”

Clay Fuller, Trump’s endorsed candidate to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia, on Tuesday advanced to a runoff in a crowded special election.

Fuller, a district attorney in Georgia, told NOTUS last month that Trump’s endorsement was “rocket fuel” for his campaign. He said he would have dropped out of the race if he didn’t receive it.

“Before the endorsement, I said I am a candidate that is running as 100% pro-Trump. And if he makes a decision, goes with some other candidate in this race, I’m going to support the president’s decision,” Fuller said.

“If it had been another candidate, I would have gotten out of the race and supported that candidate,” he added.

Even as Trump’s agenda on immigration enforcement, tariffs and the war with Iran is growing increasingly unpopular, Republicans say his endorsement is still highly coveted.

“Normally in politics, endorsements are really not that influential. They may help with some fundraising, but they don’t really mean that much to the average voter,” said Stan Barnes, a lobbyist and former Republican state senator in Arizona. “But the Donald Trump endorsement does mean something to the average voter.”

“And that’s why it’s so popular, because Trump is trusted by a great many people that are Republican, loyal voters. And it is so much easier to say ‘what does Trump want?’ as a Republican voter than it is to actually research the issue or to try to make up your own mind.”

Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona political strategist and former Republican, said the president’s endorsement is more powerful now than ever. He said that Trump’s popularity with Republican voters “doesn’t seem to waiver.”

“I think he’s looked at as more of an elder statesman,” Coughlin said. “He’s not up for reelection again. He’s the incumbent president. He’s the leader of the Republican Party, unquestionably.”

“It’s like the former CEO who comes back and is CEO and has more loyalty amongst the rank and file by virtue of his having left and come back,” he added.

The suggestion that someone else’s endorsement might have greater influence among Republicans is quickly dismissed by Trump’s allies.

Michael T. Lowry, a pollster and a former chief of staff for Republican Rep. Robert Aderholt, released a poll showing that Britt’s endorsement is more powerful than Trump’s within her state of Alabama. She was fast to downplay it.

“There is nothing more powerful than a Trump endorsement,” Britt told NOTUS. “He wants to make sure he gets good people in that can help move his agenda forward. And obviously, it’s certainly his prerogative.”