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Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady as the Iran War Rages

The central bank cited elevated inflation due to rising energy prices, low job gains and little change to the unemployment rate in its decision.

Federal Reserve Powell AP-25302681770845

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term expires May 15. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, following President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain the naval blockade of Iran and indefinitely extend the war that has stoked inflation.

“Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook,” the Fed Board of Governors wrote in a statement.

The board voted to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing low job gains, little change in the unemployment rate and elevated inflation due in part to “the recent increase in global energy prices.” Only one governor, Stephen Miran — who resigned as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in February to stay in his appointed seat at the Fed — voted to lower rates by a quarter percentage point.

Three other governors — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan — voted to maintain the current rates and did not support including an “easing bias,” which is language that indicates the Fed is likely to lower rates in the future.

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The Fed has faced an uncertain economic outlook for weeks as diplomatic negotiations stalled and the Trump administration shifted the timeline for ending the war. Trump told Axios on Wednesday that he will lift the naval blockade when Iran agrees to a deal regarding its nuclear program.

Trump’s comments sent oil prices up by more than 6%, and U.S. gas prices hit a record high for the year of $4.23 per gallon on Wednesday. Trump has downplayed the impact of oil prices, as Asia turns to Russia for oil to address its desperate energy shortage and Europe faces a looming crisis of its own.

“The effects on the United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or Asia,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. “If this goes on for much longer, and prices go much higher, then we’ll feel that much more. And, of course, I’m talking about aggregate inflation numbers.”

In the U.S., the inflation rate accelerated to 3.3% in March, while the unemployment rate fell by a tenth of a percentage point. Economists worry that the impact of the Iran war on supply chains will last years, potentially complicating the Fed’s ultimate goal of lowering interest rates.

Wednesday’s announcement marked the third consecutive Fed decision to hold rates steady and likely the last of Powell’s tenure as Fed chair. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina cast the deciding vote to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Powell out of the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, all but ensuring Warsh will be confirmed before Powell’s term expires May 15.

Tillis lifted his opposition to Warsh after the Justice Department said it would drop the criminal investigation into Powell’s handling of the multibillion-dollar Fed building renovation — a probe Tillis had suggested was politically motivated.

“I’ve got confidence that this investigation is over,” Tillis said, adding that he received “assurances” from the DOJ that plans to appeal a judge’s order throwing out subpoenas in the Powell case would not lead to reopening the investigation.

Powell said on Wednesday he is “encouraged” by U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro and the DOJ’s moves in the last week to close the criminal investigation, but plans to remain on the Fed board for an undetermined amount of time until the matter is put to bed.

“I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that,” Powell told reporters Wednesday. He congratulated Warsh on his advancement out of committee.

Powell said that his decision to stay has nothing to do with verbal criticism of the central bank.

“My concern is really about the series of illegal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors,” Powell said.

Many lawmakers say they are still concerned, however, about the independence of the central bank’s rate-setting under Warsh. Trump has previously said he would nominate someone who would lower interest rates, though Warsh denied any private demands by the president to do so at his confirmation hearing last week.

“I’ll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve,” Warsh said last week, rejecting claims by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, that he will be Trump’s “human sock puppet.”

Powell will assume a seat on the Fed Board when his chairmanship ends. The board will next convene to determine interest rates June 16-17.