Who’s Afraid of Regime Change?

Today’s notice: The complicated but familiar politics of keeping the oil. The two Jan. 6s. Jeanine Pirro’s stock trades. And: Regime change “isn’t rocket science,” Republicans say.

THE LATEST

Oil and vinegar: When it comes to what happens next for Venezuela’s most profitable export, Donald Trump did not mince words — at least not as Joe Scarborough retold them. “Joe, the difference between Iraq and this is [George W.] Bush didn’t keep the oil. We’re going to keep the oil,” the MS NOW host said of his conversation with the president this week.

Big Oil is not lining up to help so far, however. Chevron, the only big player to go on the record about Venezuelan oil reserves post-U.S. intervention, said it is focused on protecting its current assets. NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports that the American Petroleum Institute has not met with Trump about the issue.

The economic reality: The global price of oil has dropped so low that industry analysts say it’s unlikely that anyone would want to spend the billions required to develop production in a politically unstable place like Venezuela.

Trump’s answer: subsidize infrastructure investments in Venezuela that would then be repaid by the oil produced. In other words, massive taxpayer funds spent on building up the economy of a foreign land with the nebulous promise it would work out in America’s favor down the road — a line that Bush-era nation-builders would find familiar (and the exact kind of thing 2016-era Trump railed against).

The Donroe Doctrine is pressing ahead. Reuters reported yesterday that talks are underway to divert Venezuelan crude oil meant for China to refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Trump announced last night that the interim government would “turn over” 30 million to 50 million barrels — and that he would directly control what is done with the proceeds.

“It is literally a drop in the bucket for us” is what Ed Hirs, who teaches energy economics at the University of Houston, told Anna of the deal, estimating that it would be worth roughly $2.5 billion — “about four days” worth of U.S. oil production.

The end goal of all this? TBD. “What our objectives are, what our policy is — I’m not clear on any of that,” Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican, told NOTUS’ Hamed Ahmadi.

Stay tuned. Or not, if you’re Sen. Tim Kaine preparing for today’s scheduled White House briefing with senators. “My strong suspicion is they will try to numb us with the details about the operation and, as much as possible, avoid the what’s next question, because I don’t think they know the answer,” he said.

Open tabs: Pentagon will begin review of ‘effectiveness’ of women in ground combat positions (NPR); Trump Admin to Freeze $10B in Welfare Funds to Democratic States (NOTUS); Spending package would reject proposed DOJ restructuring (Roll Call); Wyoming Supreme Court Strikes Down Two Abortion Ban Laws (NOTUS)

From Manifest Destiny

Greenland talk is back. “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The President and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal,” Karoline Leavitt said in a statement after a couple days of Trump and top officials publicly eyeing the Danish territory again.

“The president likes to think out loud,” Sen. John Kennedy told reporters yesterday. NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer reports that Kennedy’s take — effectively an eye roll — was rampant among his fellow Republicans. Now that regime change is actually on the Trump 2.0 agenda, they don’t believe the threats of military action directed at Greenland.

Apples and oranges: That’s how many Republican lawmakers described comparisons between U.S. intervention in Venezuela and decades of less-than-ideal results from interventions in the Middle East, echoing arguments from Marco Rubio on Sunday’s “Meet the Press,” when he acknowledged there’s been a “phobia built up” against regime changes.

“This isn’t rocket science,” Sen. Jim Justice told Emily. “We know what works and what doesn’t work. Sure, there’s some rough edges, or whatever like that, but we’re smart enough to figure this out.”

From the Hill

Life in a split screen: No event in recent history reflects the choose-your-own-adventure truth of our current politics than the violent riot at the Capitol that took place five years ago yesterday.

“The years may have muffled the screams we heard,” Rep. Bennie Thompson said at an hours-long recounting of Jan. 6, 2021, with fellow Democrats, NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson reports.

“Fake news” was how Trump described the Democrats’ remembrance event. He spoke at a House GOP retreat at the (physically, at least) renamed D.C. venue formerly known as the Kennedy Center. The White House posted a special website that included a MAGA timeline-of-record of the day’s events, and referred to the rioters as “patriots.”

About that speech: Almost 50 minutes into Trump’s retreat address, a Republican member in the audience texted NOTUS’ Reese Gorman: “My butt is starting to hurt.” The speech still had 40 minutes to go.

From the White House

Abortion politics surprise: Trump threw a wrench into long-standing politics around abortion access, telling House Republicans yesterday to be “flexible” on the Hyde Amendment, the decades-old ban on federal funds being used to pay for abortion costs.

The flexibility was supposed to make passing a health care law easier, but groups opposed to abortion rights and Republicans in the Senate were shocked. “That’s kind of a sea change,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis told NOTUS’ Oriana González, adding that Trump’s comment could “have a chilling effect in moving forward legislatively.”

Promises made… Trump has aggressively moved to fulfill some campaign promises — but others are still pending, NOTUS’ Violet Jira reports. She reviewed 43 campaign videos laying out “Agenda 47,” his early vision for a second term, and found clues of what’s to come in 2026.

The White House insists all of Trump’s campaign vows remain in play, even harder-to-achieve promises like “Freedom Cities” or term limits for members of Congress.

NEW ON NOTUS

Shop-iffy? U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro’s prolific stock-trading portfolio includes a company currently under legal scrutiny, NOTUS’ Dave Levinthal reports. Pirro owns up to $15,000 in shares of Shopify, the online platform a bipartisan group of attorneys general say needs to do more to curb “pervasive illegality” by e-cigarette retailers who use the company’s services.

Her office told Dave the trades pass muster according to federal conflicts-of-interest rules.

More: Grammy-Winning Bluegrass Musician Cancels Kennedy Center Show, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

Hilton Cuts Ties With Minneapolis-Area Hotel Over Canceled Rooms for Immigration Agents, by Jackie Llanos

Longtime Staffer Launches Bid to Replace 88-Year-Old Eleanor Holmes Norton, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa Has Died, by Samuel Larreal

NOT US

• The Brand Dressing MAGA’s Leading Ladies—Whether It Likes It or Not, by Laura Esposito for The Daily Beast
  
• The Front-Runner: California’s Gavin Newsom would rather be wrong than weak. By Helen Lewis for The Atlantic
  
• Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Big Breakup, by Charles Bethea for The New Yorker

MEET US

Welcome to Meet Us, where we introduce you to a member of the NOTUS team. Manuela Silva is a NOTUS reporter and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow covering California, immigration and housing.

Manuela Silva Tracey Salazar

Hometown: Washington, D.C.

Past work: City news editor at the Columbia Daily Spectator; Investigative Reporting Workshop fellow; intern at the Futuro Media Group and the Bronx Times.

Why journalism: It’s a license to be curious and a little bit nosy.

NOTUS + AJI highlight so far: Learning about how some of the best journalists do their work!

Thing you can’t live without: the metro.

Best advice you’ve ever been given: Give yourself and others grace.

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