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The Arizona Math Problem

Kamala Harris speaks at Cochise College Douglas Campus in Douglas, AZ.
Carolyn Kaster/AP

Today’s notice: Hard problems. Harris vs. the math in Arizona. Loyalty vs. decency for Republicans after another racist Trump tirade. Using hurricanes to make a political point vs. politicizing them.


The Math vs. the Vibes

Arizona has been a psychically validating state for Democrats in recent years as the place they can point to and say MAGA politics just don’t work, look at Kari Lake. But it looks like the state might be a lot more stressful for Dems this time around. NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright reports that despite massive spending, multiple appearances and a huge ground operation, an operative close to Kamala Harris’ team says: “If you would rank the seven battleground states, people think it’s the least likely she wins” Arizona.

The biggest challenge is math. “Republicans now have more than 250,000 more registered voters than Democrats. And independents now have more than 100,000 more registered voters than Democrats, a shift from 2020 when Democrats surpassed indies by 20,000,” Jasmine finds. Local strategist Stacy Pearson explains: “There is just a mathematical complication in Arizona that other states don’t have. None of the other swing states have lost Dems the way Arizona has.”