Many Questions, Few Answers

Today’s notice: It happened again. Democrats are livid — but deeply split on how to fight back. Trump’s coalition is “fraying but not broken.” Plus: All the characters you’ll meet at Maduro’s trial.

THE LATEST

All eyes on Portland: In the past, local leaders could expect a rapid succession of high-profile shootings involving federal agents to produce a coordinated response aimed at alleviating public fears. But after two people were reportedly shot by immigration enforcement agents in Portland, Oregon, last night, Mayor Keith Wilson sounded like he expects no federal compassion for his city.

“We cannot sit by while constitutional protections erode and bloodshed mounts,” Wilson said in a statement. “Portland is not a ‘training ground’ for militarized agents, and the ‘full force’ threatened by the administration has deadly consequences.”

As in Minneapolis, there are a lot of questions to be answered about what happened, why it happened and what, if anything, it tells us about how the federal immigration force is being deployed and trained.

The White House has its answers already. Top officials from Donald Trump on down are in line on Minneapolis. Despite what multiple videos show, they claim the shooting came in response to an act of “domestic terrorism” fueled by a leftist cabal.

Little evidence has been presented to back this up, and the administration is proceeding in a way that would have its supporters howling if someone else was doing it. State investigators have been barred from participating in the federal investigation into the incident, for example.

The Democrats’ plan: TBD. There has been a lot of rhetoric, but as NOTUS’ Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz report, the caucus is largely shying away from using its leverage in the appropriations process and threatening another government shutdown. “We’ll figure out the accountability mechanisms at the appropriate time,” Hakeem Jeffries told reporters.

One thing the White House seems to have no plan for: What happens if Republicans stop marching in lockstep, as public polling continues to find Trump’s numbers falling as the midterms draw closer. There are signs it’s getting harder to pull off — even Mike Johnson rebuked the president when he suggested Republicans prepare to be “flexible” on the Hyde Amendment in health care talks.

“I think it shows that the president is picking less-prudent fights,” an anonymous Republican lawmaker told NOTUS’ Hill team for a story on the state of Trump’s coalition. Another said it was “fraying but not broken.”

Health care could be the breaking point: The topic that fractures Republican coalitions seems to be fixin’ to do it again. Seventeen House Republicans voted yesterday to extend ACA subsidies for three years, NOTUS’ Avani Kalra and Em Luetkemeyer report. The bill passed and will now go to the Senate, where it is not expected to do well.

Open tabs: US Spy Chief Gabbard Excluded From Maduro Plan Over Past Views (Bloomberg); Prosecutors Said to Pursue New Investigation of Letitia James (NYT); Project 2025 creators pitch marriage bootcamp, two-children families (Axios); Trump considers West Wing colonnade expansion for ballroom ‘symmetry’ (USA Today)

From the campaign trail

First on NOTUS: Dave Wasserman cooks. The 2026 preview-of-record has arrived. We have the first look at the election guru’s list of the 10 things that will define the year we’re about to all live through. “Five Ways 2026 Looks Like 2018 — and Five Ways It Doesn’t” is going live on the Cook Political Report this morning.

What’s different: “Inflation and geopolitical instability … The redistricting war … More open seats, but fewer genuine takeover opportunities … Democrats’ brand is weaker than it was eight years ago … Republicans are on more even financial footing.”

What’s familiar: “Health care is at the center of Democratic messaging … Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage … Democrats’ focus on national security candidates … Lack of a clear Democratic leader or identity … The Senate map somewhat insulates Republicans from losses.”

The takeaway: “2026 is still on track to follow the patterns of previous midterm elections, in which a dissatisfied electorate turns down the thermostat on the president’s agenda and penalizes the party in power,” Wasserman writes.

From the Hill

Well, that’s not how it was supposed to go: Senators voted to advance a war powers resolution yesterday that was expected to go nowhere, while a ballyhooed effort to override Trump’s vetoes of two unanimously passed bills in the House failed to happen.

In the Senate, five Republicans joined with Democrats to advance a bill that would require congressional authorization before any further military action in Venezuela. As NOTUS’ Hamed Ahmadi and Tyler Spence report, similar efforts to rein in Trump’s war powers failed in October and November. “I think it concerns people, the more they hear loose rhetoric like ‘Colombia, you’re next, Greenland, you’re next,’” Sen. Rand Paul said.

Trump was not happy about the change of heart, calling for all five Republicans who voted for the bill to lose next time they run for reelection, Tyler reports. Of course, this could be viewed as an in-kind contribution to at least one of those senators, Susan Collins. She’s facing a Democratic campaign challenge in Maine largely based on the idea that she’s not the independent she claims to be, but rather Trump’s kind of senator.

The House’s veto override implosion was caused by too few Republicans wanting to go on record crossing the president. Dozens voted to strike down the two vetoes, Em reports, but not enough to reach the necessary two-thirds majority required for the override bill to pass.

NOTUS DEEP DIVE

Feds’ expected witness list against Maduro? Drug kingpins, corrupt generals and murderous government officials, all of whom are trying to limit their own exposure to the American legal system by cooperating.

That’s the picture of who could be the key witnesses in the federal case against Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports. Some names you should watch for:

Hugo Carvajal, aka “El Pollo”: Venezuela’s notorious former director of military intelligence, known internationally for engaging in torture. Currently in federal custody, he sent a letter to Trump last month saying he’d provide evidence that Maduro’s regime provided weapons and safe passage for terrorist groups threatening the U.S.

Clíver Alcalá Cordones: former Venezuelan general currently serving a 21-year sentence at a federal prison in Maryland.

Roberto Perdigon: past associate of deceased drug kingpin Walid Makled. Perdigon testified against Alcalá as part of a deal he told a federal judge he made with the DEA.

Jorge Abasta León: former senior Venezuelan police officer who testified in the Alcalá case that he witnessed top government officials protecting drug traffickers. He has testified in the past that the DEA paid him for his cooperation.

NEW ON NOTUS

Fear and loathing at the National Symphony Orchestra: Members of the storied institution told NOTUS’ Torrence Banks that the Kennedy Center’s new name is already making their lives more difficult. According to one member, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution: “Even the most far-right conservative, Trump-loving members of the orchestra who’ve loved the takeover are disgusted and terrified.”

More: Top Aide to Rep. Mike Collins Was Reimbursed for More Than $170,000 in Office Expenses, by Reese Gorman

Josh Shapiro Officially Launches Reelection Campaign as 2028 Speculation Swirls, by Adora Brown

PERSPECTIVES

Will history vindicate or condemn the capture of Maduro? A NOTUS forum featuring Jorge Castañeda, Ivo Daalder, Juan Gonzalez, Emily Mendrala, Francisco Rodríguez, Kori Schake and Alejandro Velasco.

NOTUS Perspectives: In Conversation. Join us for a live discussion with Perspectives contributor Alyssa Rosenberg and editor Richard Just. The virtual event will take place on Jan. 14 at 12 p.m. ET. RSVP here.

NOT US

• True Patriots Are Cashing In on the Apocalypse, by Jasper Craven for Wired
  
• Court Records Reveal Details of ICE Agent’s Previous Dragging Incident, by Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs for The New York Times
  
• ICE shooting reinforces Minnesota’s grim role as Trump’s public enemy No. 1, by Nicholas Riccardi and Steve Karnowski for The Associated Press
  

Thank you for reading! If you like this edition of the NOTUS newsletter, please forward it to a friend. If this newsletter was shared with you, please subscribe — it’s free! Have a tip? Email us at tips@notus.org. And as always, we’d love to hear your thoughts at newsletters@notus.org.