Senate Intelligence Leader Lays Out Worst-Case Scenario After Trump’s Strikes on Iran

The top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee laid out a worst-case scenario following President Donald Trump’s military operation in Iran, saying on Sunday that it remains possible the attack will result in a regime that’s even more hostile to the U.S. and speed its path to a nuclear weapon.

Sen. Mark Warner, ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that while he generally supported the goal of overthrowing the Iranian government, American intelligence has little on-the-ground visibility in Iran — and that it is possible these strikes drive more hard-liners into Iranian leadership.

“We don’t have that much visibility into any of the Iranian Resistance,” Warner said on CNN Sunday. “Will the President’s supporters say this was still a great move, if the person who replaces the Supreme Leader is even further to the right and actually rushes forward on the nuclear program?”

“If we now get a leader who rushes towards weaponization,” Warner said. “Are we in a better spot? Is America safer or not? That to me is a very much of an open question,” he added.

Warner said he is not aware of any evidence of an imminent threat to the U.S. from Iran in the days prior to Trump’s strikes, contradicting one of the president’s stated reasons for the attack. Warner also said the Senate Intelligence Committee has not been briefed on Trump’s plan for regime change in the country.

“I saw no intelligence that said Iran was on the verge of launching any kind of preemptive strike against the United States of America,” Warner said, adding that Trump should appear before Congress to justify his decision.

Trump started large-scale strikes against the Iranian government early Saturday morning, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian senior officials as a result.

So far, three U.S. soldiers have been killed and five wounded as part of the operation, according to U.S. Central Command.

Congressional Republicans — including Warner’s counterparts on the Intelligence Committee — have not been able to provide more information on Trump’s plans for Iran or what happens next as the country begins retaliatory attacks.

Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican on the Intelligence Committee who is facing a bitter reelection fight in Texas, was caught flat-footed by the strikes at a campaign event Saturday.

“I’m learning like you are as the news unfolds exactly what’s happening, but I do know that Iran must be stopped from a nuclear weapons program,” Cornyn said.

Sen. Lindsay Graham said in a Sunday interview that he was not sure about the scale of the operation, and demurred when asked if Trump’s attacks amounted to war.

“The Ayatollah would say yes. I don’t know if this is technically a war,” Graham said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, also wasn’t able to provide new evidence that Iran posed an imminent threat to the U.S. when pressed by CNN anchor Dana Bash Sunday morning.

“What we know they have is thousands of missiles that can hit not just our bases right across the Persian Gulf, but bases as far flung as Western Europe and the Indian Ocean,” Cotton said.

“We also know that Iran has a space launch program,” Cotton said. “A space launch program is a very flimsy cover for an intercontinental missile program. It’s the same technology to put something in space that you use to develop intercontinental missiles, and Iran’s clearly had the ambition to do that for many years.”

Cotton added that the U.S. military will continue to strike Iranian military forces to allow the Iranian public to take regime change into their own hands.

“This is a chance, finally, in 47 years, for the people of Iran to rise and try to take control and take back their own freedom as we continue to degrade the regime that’s been oppressing them for so long,” Cotton said.

In another interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation”, Cotton laid out his expectations for the future of Trump’s military campaign, saying that he does not predict a protracted war.

“What we should expect to see is an extended air and naval campaign,” Cotton said. “The president has no plan for any kind of large-scale ground force inside of Iran.”