Lindsey Graham ‘Loves to Intervene’

Today’s notice: How to steal a million dollars from a trade association — but not how to get away with it. Plus: The House GOP, retreating. Lindsey Graham, under fire. Exclusive Oklahoma polling. And: What to know about last night’s election results.

THE LATEST

What will the House GOP retreat amount to? The answer may come not from the people gathered at Donald Trump’s golf club in Doral, Florida, this week, but from those who chose not to go.

That’s most of them, actually. Less than half of the House Republican Conference was enticed by a trip to Florida. The NOTUS Hill team, many of whom are down in Doral, reports that the number of absences is notable, especially for an election year — they spotted just 105 of the 218 members of the conference at the strategy sessions.

Truly absent are the moderates, those Republicans in tough districts and greatly in need of a strategy for the fall, if you believe public polling.

So it’s a lot of talk, but follow-up action is far from guaranteed. One meeting our team got details on was about something that will almost certainly not happen: another reconciliation bill. Speaker Mike Johnson wants one, but was disabused of the notion behind closed doors, NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer and Reese Gorman report. Rep. Jason Smith, the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, told colleagues in the meeting that a second reconciliation bill was not possible.

“Dead as shit,” is how one Republican lawmaker put it.

The idea is moving ahead, but if members of leadership can’t even sell it in Doral … well, let’s just say they may need to retreat on this one.

Open tabs: Arizona Is Now at the Center of Election Investigations (Atlantic); The Miami Trial Exposing Foreign Influence In Trumpland (Lever); Internal Pentagon memo orders military commanders to remove Anthropic AI tech from key systems (CBS); Bondi Is Said to Move to Military Housing Because of Threats (NYT)

From the Hill

“He loves to intervene,” Sen. Josh Hawley told reporters yesterday of his upper chamber colleague and war cheerleader, Lindsey Graham. “I can’t say I share that enthusiasm, but he’s very consistent.”

Graham’s caught some flak for that “enthusiasm.” Conservative commentator Meghan McCain posted that he “is scaring people.” Former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly posted that he’s a “homicidal maniac.” GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna posted that he’s among “some in the Senate that advocate for war everywhere.” And Rep. Nancy Mace, a Republican from Graham’s home state, appeared to subtweet him over his comments Monday on Fox News.

Graham told reporters yesterday that he’s not trying to be a White House spokesperson: “It’s me speaking, not them.”

Even in a war with no shortage of fulsome American rhetoric, Graham continues to stand out. “I’m sorry anybody died. I’m not taking the Iranian bait and listening to them,” he said yesterday amid calls for public hearings on civilian casualties from coalition bombing, NOTUS’ Hamed Ahmadi reports. “These things happen in war,” he said of a strike on a girls’ school on Day 1 of the war with Iran, which he acknowledged may have been an American mistake.

“He may use words that I wouldn’t necessarily use, but I agree with the spirit,” Sen. Thom Tillis told Emily. “It’s not like he’s speaking for the caucus. He is speaking for himself. But he’s been consistent as anti-Iran and pro-Israel.”

Speaking of Israel (and Graham critics), Republican senators lamented the growing rift among conservatives over America’s war partner in fiery remarks at a conference on antisemitism hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington yesterday, NOTUS’ Amelia Benavides-Colón reports. Popular voices like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes were called phony conservatives by the likes of Sens. Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton, who accused the internet personalities of being among the worst purveyors of antisemitism online.

From the campaign trail

The race to succeed Marjorie Taylor Greene heads to a runoff: Trump-endorsed Georgia district attorney Clay Fuller will face off against Democrat Shawn Harris next month to determine who’ll complete the remainder of Greene’s term.

It’s a real good news/bad news moment. The good news for whomever wins the runoff is that they go straight to Congress. The bad news is they will soon have to run in another primary in order to serve a full term.

A Colom-oscopy for Mississippi? Last night, Mississippi district attorney Scott Colom handily won the Democratic nomination for Senate. A real question Democrats are (quietly) asking themselves, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports: Can Colom make it a real race against the incumbent, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith?

Even big buyers of the idea rank the race as a long shot. But Colom — whom Hyde-Smith, during Joe Biden’s administration, blocked from becoming a federal judge — is running a campaign that’s impressed party strategists, in a state with a large population of Black voters, in a year shaping up to be hostile for Republicans.

Exclusive numbers: A new poll on a potential Republican Senate primary in Oklahoma to replace Sen. Markwayne Mullin (Trump’s new nominee to lead DHS) found Rep. Kevin Hern leading in two hypothetical matchups against Gov. Kevin Stitt and Rep. Stephanie Bice, both of whom are considering bids for the seat, Reese reports.

The poll, conducted on behalf of the conservative organization Club for Growth, found Hern — who, according to two sources that spoke with Reese, is expected on Wednesday to announce his run for Senate — leading Stitt by 12 percentage points. It also found Hern leading Bice 49% to 37% with 14% undecided. The survey reached 510 likely Republican primary voters in Oklahoma, and has a margin of error of +4.4% at the 95% confidence level.

NOTUS SCOOP

Nothing ventured, something gained: The (now-former) director of government affairs at the National Venture Capital Association, Jonas Murphy, pleaded guilty in December to embezzling more than $1 million from the trade association’s PAC, NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno reveals today for the first time.

How he did it: From December 2023 to June 2025, Murphy made 211 unauthorized transfers to six personal bank accounts while he was treasurer of VenturePAC, according to court documents.

What he did with the money: Allegations include $5,000 in straight cash withdrawn from D.C. ATMs, a $67,000 automotive country club membership in New York and more than $9,000 at a Manhattan clothing store.

How he got caught: Last June, the FEC flagged expenditures on the PAC’s April 2025 disclosure forms “for which you have failed to include the purpose,” the commission wrote. Disbursements originally listed as going to prominent names in venture capital were amended to show they were unauthorized payments to Murphy.

As of yesterday afternoon, Murphy was listed as a realtor at The Parker Group, a Delaware- and Maryland-focused real estate company. “Before entering real estate, Jonas represented startups and investors at a trade association in Washington, D.C. and served on Capitol Hill,” his bio read. After NOTUS called for comment, Murphy’s page was apparently scrubbed.

What comes next: VenturePAC eventually reported to the FEC that it had been reimbursed. U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro’s office did not publicize the plea deal. Sentencing is set for June, and Murphy faces up to 10 years in prison.

NEW ON NOTUS

Trump’s State Department pick drops out: A contentious pick for a top State Department role, Jeremy Carl, dropped out of contention yesterday. Earlier this year, Carl took part in a tense Senate hearing, in which he was accused of making racist comments in the past.

Carl is the author of a 2024 book titled “The Unprotected Class: How Anti-White Racism Is Tearing America Apart.” In it, he wrote that “white identity” has been “erased” from American history.

More: Top House Republicans Refuse to Condemn Colleagues’ Anti-Muslim Remarks, by Torrie Herrington

NOT US

• How Marco Rubio Went From Neocon “It” Boy to Top MAGA Lieutenant, by Matthew Duss for The Nation
  
• How Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff see the world, by Diana Nerozzi for Politico
  
• Everyone Is Flocking to the Same MAGA Hot Spot. They’re Missing Something Critical. By Ben Jacobs for Slate

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