One of Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities in the Senate next year might be in deep red Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Democrats are targeting Sullivan over his support for President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran, hoping to put the state in play amid a challenging political environment for Republicans nationwide. Rising prices, particularly of health care, utilities and gas, are fueling voter frustration and significantly threatening GOP congressional majorities in November.

“The vibe around the country is real apprehension around the economy,” said Sen. Peter Welch. “That’s a dynamic that’s very powerful, and then [Peltola] is a very well-known and well-regarded statewide figure. So she starts out with her own identity, but I think that the headwinds are in the Republicans’ direction.”

Sullivan is clearly feeling the heat. Last week, as the Senate considered additional funding for immigration enforcement, he voted for six amendments proposed by Democrats to address cost-of-living issues, joining Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who is considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent this year.

A Democratic party-aligned group this week also began airing ads attacking Sullivan over cuts to Medicaid and rising prices, including for health insurance subsidies for people enrolled in the Affordable Care Act. Sullivan voted in December for a bill that would have extended the subsidies for three years, but the measure failed due to Republican opposition.

Even Republicans concede that the Alaska race has become more than simply something to monitor. One Senate Republican said that while Sullivan is optimistic, he’s become “clearly concerned” with the reelection fight given the worsening environment for Republicans nationally. The fact that he faces Peltola, who is widely considered the best possible recruit Democrats could have won in the state, is focusing more attention on the contest.

In an interview with NOTUS, Sullivan expressed confidence about his reelection and touted his record of bringing federal dollars back home to Alaska.

“I always have tough races — 2014, 2020 — and I’m always prepared,” Sullivan said Tuesday. “So you deal with externalities. Having high energy prices, I don’t think it’s good in any part of the country … but I’m going to keep doing what I’m doing, which is keep putting points on the board for my state.”

One Republican operative with experience working on Alaska races told NOTUS about Sullivan’s recent votes for Democratic amendments: “I think it’s an awareness that he’s in a real race.” This operative added, “I’d rather a member accept that and do the right things for their … state than follow blindly what leadership’s doing. You have to be able to say, ‘Look, I stood up to my party on this.’”

“It’s Alaska. It’s weird. … It’s a weird state to campaign in. It’s a weird state messaging-wise. It’s complicated,” the operative continued. “But I’d rather be Dan Sullivan than not be Dan Sullivan up there right now.”

Early polls have shown Peltola with an edge over Sullivan. A survey from Alaska Survey Research released this week found Peltola leading with 49 percentage points to Sullivan’s 43.

Peltola also reported a massive fundraising haul in the first three months of the year, totaling almost $9 million, four times as much as Sullivan’s $2.1 million.

Despite the state’s consistent Republican tilt, Democrats have made Alaska a linchpin state in their hopes of winning the majority in the fall. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the year that the Last Frontier is part of a quartet of states — alongside North Carolina, Maine and Ohio — that can help his party flip control of the chamber.

Specifically, Democrats are hopeful that Peltola, the single-term former congresswoman, can repeat the success that saw her win the state’s at-large House seat twice in four months. She was ultimately defeated by Rep. Nick Begich in 2024.

Peltola’s campaign dismissed the senator’s votes last week in support of Democratic cost-of-living amendments as “hollow political showmanship” that wouldn’t blunt the “crushing weight of his disastrous, special interest driven price hikes,” while Schumer called Sullivan “very nervous.”

Sullivan’s campaign shot back: “Obviously the only person who is ‘very nervous’ is Chuck Schumer, who is so petrified of being ousted by his radical left-base that he forced the Senate to partake in a ridiculous, time-consuming reconciliation process so that his party could continue to oppose closing our borders, funding our law enforcement, and strengthening our national security.”

Despite the Democratic optimism, Republicans remain bullish that Sullivan will ultimately get over the finish line. A second Senate Republican pointed out that the incumbent Republican is a far cry from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who Peltola defeated twice for her House seat, and is well-equipped to manage the ranked-choice ballot that is part of the uniqueness of the state. The system allows voters to rank candidates in order of their choice on the ballot instead of voting for just one.

“[Democrats are] obviously flailing for issues that they can try to pin on Dan because he has been very solid on issues that Alaskans care about,” former Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, a longtime friend of Sullivan who lost out to the senator in the 2014 primary for the seat, said in an interview. He pointed to defense and the fight for public lands access as prime issues that will help his cause.

“We’re in for, kind of, guerrilla warfare,” Treadwell continued, saying that he expects plenty of Democratic attacks to come about on public lands and trawling. “They’ve got plenty of money to play that game.”

Republican operatives also believe there’s an effective case to be made against Peltola, especially given votes she took during her House tenure that put her “out of step” with the state on various issues, including national resources.

“When they’re able to tell that story, which they will have the money, the time and the ability to — I think people will start to see the holes in her as they exist,” one Republican operative with experience working on Alaska races continued, conceding that the state is unlike other states Democrats believe they can contest.

Sullivan supporters, however, remain upbeat. When asked if she’s still confident he’ll prevail come November, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was quick with an answer.

“Yeah!” she said.