Iran Politics Are Back

Today’s notice: What happens after the ceasefire? Lindsey Graham’s legacy. The story behind the photo of the woman on the train. Fraud enforcement check-in. Mike Lawler’s fight. And: Which progressive firm has come out on top after Graham Platner?

THE LATEST

The dream of lower gas prices this summer seems truly gone, doesn’t it? Donald Trump and the Iranian regime have torn up their deal and are now once again each claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have already started to tick back up, and it’s hard to imagine that story will change anytime soon.

The war returns, and the political challenge with it. In other words, this is an election where costs are a huge motivating factor, and a conflict that has never been popular doesn’t play well for the incumbent party. There was some hope that at least one of those challenges, the price of gas, would be alleviated.

“I’m not an economist,” Rep. Richard Hudson (R-North Carolina), the chair of the NRCC, told Manuela yesterday when asked if gas prices will be going back down again significantly before the election — just hours after meeting with Trump at the White House. It was a déjà vu moment from the pre-ceasefire world. “What the president did in Iran was the right thing to do, and he had to do it, and I support him,” Hudson went on. “You can’t make political calculations when it comes to the safety of this country. I think Americans, people appreciate the president who’s willing to stand up for the country and do the hard things.”

It’s not just the Iran war that feels like it’s moving backwards. “There’s no question that inflation is back. The issue is, what’s causing it?” Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) said. “Is it temporary? Is it systemic? I think it’s being caused by three things: conflict in Iran, the AI boom, and I think we’re still seeing some inflation from the rising cost of imports from tariffs.”

But what’s new? There’s a lot going on, and trading strikes with the Iranian regime has become par for the course lately. Congress is back, but with the baggage of a summer of rising gas prices and an ongoing conflict — exactly what many members hoped just a month ago would not be the case.

Open tabs: Trump to assert voting machine vulnerabilities in Thursday speech (Reuters); Trump Administration Finally Hands Over Evidence From Minnesota ICE Shootings (NOTUS); Judge Rebukes Settlement Creating Trump’s ‘Anti-Weaponization’ Fund (NOTUS); Appeals Court Revives Lawsuits Alleging Tylenol Causes Autism and ADHD (WSJ)

From the Hill

Lindsey Graham’s replacement to be sworn in today. The late senator’s younger sister, Darline Graham Nordone, is set to become the next senator from South Carolina at 2:30 p.m., Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced. She will be South Carolina’s first female senator and is not expected to run in the shortened Republican primary next month.

Carrying Graham’s torch, at least on the issue of sanctioning Russia, will be several sitting senators, NOTUS’ Joe Gould reports. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), who cosponsored Graham’s sanctions bill, says the measure’s text could be out as soon as today, with a vote on it coming later this week.

“Obviously, Lindsey was the man driving that, the driving force behind it,” Thune said of the bill’s next steps. “But there are others who have a deep interest in it. So it would be great if we could figure out a way, a path forward to get that done.”

The sanctions bill will be perhaps the first test for a Republican conference without Graham, as fears rise among members that losing the South Carolinian means they’ve also lost the Senate’s Trump whisperer, NOTUS’ Al Weaver and Avani Kalra report.

From the District

Knowing Bernita Bowlding: “They say that ‘We love you, we got you,’ but the reality is that this woman is homeless,” said Joseph Bowlding, the older brother of Bernita — whose stare into a photojournalist’s camera while surrounded by white supremacists went viral this month. In a deeply reported story, NOTUS’ Ellie Silverman introduces us to Bernita and her family and the reality behind the photograph. “They don’t understand her. They don’t know how our family feels,” Joseph said of the online chatter. “It was important to hear the true side of who she really is, instead of just like a fantasy fairy tale.”

From the DOJ

What’s new in the new Fraud Enforcement Division? So far, mostly just a new name, NOTUS’ Violet Jira reports. Violet checked on the progress of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s promise to centralize and boost anti-fraud efforts at the Department of Justice and found much of the substantive work remains to be done. Former senior DOJ officials in anti-fraud work told her that while existing divisions have been moved to the new one, they have not seen a significant change in output. The DOJ says its plans ahead of schedule. “We’re building a first-of-its-kind division to deter fraud against the United States,” a spokesperson said.

From the campaign trail

Mike Lawler’s fight to stay in the House: “It’s not so much about him personally, but more of I want Democrats in the majority,” voter Frank Burgold, 39, of Chappaqua, New York, told NOTUS’ Kadia Goba of Lawler. The Republican congressman faces one of the most high-profile House contests in the country and is trying to convince swing voters he’s the good parts of Trump and none of the bad.

Kadia spent time with Lawler on the trail in New York’s purple 17th Congressional District, where one recent (Democratic-sponsored) poll found him down by 6 just as the money bombs are starting to land. Trump appeared with Lawler in May, a visit that Democrats are trying to exploit. Lawler calls it part of what makes him the right member for the district.

“Look, he’s the president of the United States, and just like when Joe Biden came to my district, I showed up,” Lawler told NOTUS. “If you want to be able to deliver for your district and your community, you have to engage with the president of the United States, no matter who it is.”

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Sports desk: James Wood Is Still Growing (And Other Things to Know), by Jesse Dougherty

NEW ON NOTUS

Choosing the Middle Seat: NOTUS’ Stephen Neukam profiles the political consulting firm involved with a string of progressive victories in this year’s primaries — among them Melat Kiros in Colorado and Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) is a longtime client. The firm, Middle Seat, may see its profile rise even higher, Stephen writes, after competing lefty political firm Fight Agency drew progressive critics after the implosion of Graham Platner’s candidacy in Maine.

More: Trump Cuts Two Utah National Monuments by More Than 90%, by Anna Kramer

Trump National Golf Club in Virginia Has a Pest Control Problem, Records Show, by Dave Levinthal

NOT US

• Locked Away, by Jonathan Blitzer for The New Yorker
• Political text messages could get more effective and annoying. Blame AI. By Maham Javaid for NPR
• The Americans Striking It Rich in the Data-Center Buildout, by Will Parker for The Wall Street Journal

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The newsletter was produced by Kelly Poe, Thomas Burr, Brett Bachman and Andrew Burton. Photo by Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP.