Mike Lawler Has a Plan to Survive in New York

WEST NYACK, N.Y. — Mike Lawler was in his element at the Rockland County America 250 celebration.

He’s one of the most endangered House Republicans, running for reelection in New York’s 17th Congressional District at a time when President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are at record lows and voter concerns about the economy are increasing.

But making the rounds last week, Lawler is leaning on his retail political skills and record to win reelection.

The two-term congressman could barely walk 10 feet before a constituent flagged him down. A pair of elementary school-aged children asked for his autograph. Men, women and children stopped him to take selfies. And when a senior couple approached him after trying unsuccessfully to get help on a tax issue through his office, Lawler suggested a different route.

“I’m going to give you my cell phone number so you can call me. 845 …,” he said.

It’s a scene that illustrates why Democrats have struggled to unseat a member who on paper is facing serious political headwinds. He’s one of three Republicans who represent districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. But Lawler has worked to build a political identity as an independent-minded moderate whose accessibility and relentless constituent services fits with the purple district just north of the Democratic stronghold of New York City.

That brand will face its biggest test yet this November. In 2024 with Trump at the top of the ticket, Lawler beat the Democratic nominee, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, with just over 52% of the vote.

Democrats are trying to nationalize the race around affordability, highlighting inflated gas prices and costs of goods. They are linking potential cuts to health care and social services to Lawler’s vote in favor of Republicans’ signature policy bill, dubbed the “one big, beautiful bill” by Trump. According to a projection from the Joint Economic Committee, 34,000 residents in the district are expected to lose Medicaid coverage.

Democrats are also hoping the historic trend of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms proves true in a district that Harris narrowly won in 2024.

“I think that now people really, and especially in the 17th District, they really feel that Trump is destroying our country, and we need to have somebody fighting against it,” Ira Halper, 73, a Democratic district leader from Mount Pleasant, told NOTUS.

Republicans think Lawler has insulated himself from such attacks by balancing his relationship with Trump while also breaking with his party on an occasional vote.

“He kind of walks that line in the right way. He doesn’t create enemies,” said Craig Dorney, a 55-year-old registered Republican from Pleasantville. “If you’re a Democrat, it seems like they get elected and they think their sole job is just to fight Trump.”

Trump joined Lawler at a rally in Suffern, New York, in May, pleasing constituents like Tim Kearney, 77, of Nanuet, who told NOTUS that Lawler “is in President Trump’s ear. He’s always letting him know what we need, and Trump listens.”

Lawler defended the visit, which some Democrats frowned upon. “Look, he’s the president of the United States, and just like when Joe Biden came to my district, I showed up,” Lawler told NOTUS last week. “If you want to be able to deliver for your district and your community, you have to engage with the president of the United States, no matter who it is.”

Other voters cited his argument that he’s not always in lockstep with his party. Betty Jabloner, a registered Republican living in Chappaqua, said Lawler “votes for what he feels is right.” And multiple Republicans in different parts of the district lauded him for advocating to raise the amount people could deduct for state and local taxes, known as SALT.

“I know he’s campaigned very hard to get the SALT tax changed. It helps me personally and everybody here,” Jabloner, 64, added. “You know, $10,000 for real estate taxes? It’s not even a first-time home in Westchester. Maybe a condo?”

Lawler will face Cait Conley, a West Point graduate, veteran and national security expert who is a top Democratic recruit, in November. Last month, Conley easily defeated Beth Davidson, a local member of Rockland County’s legislature, and Effie Phillips-Staley, a progressive activist, in the primary.

Voter registration in the district favors Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by nearly 80,000 registered voters. The race will turn on whether Conley can unite an increasingly fractured party and pick up independents.

Lawler’s record as an incumbent who is a regular presence in the media helps his profile. He also served as a state legislator for two years and before that owned a political consulting firm.

That foundation shapes how he navigates a politically and ethnically diverse district with Democratic strongholds in Westchester and the southern part of Rockland County and more conservative communities across the rest of Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess counties.

Democrats NOTUS talked to across the district shared a mix of enthusiasm, frustration and uncertainty about whether their party can mount a formidable challenge this time against Lawler.

“I feel, like, very disillusioned, and I won’t be surprised if Lawler wins again,” Ashleigh O’Dell, a 38-year-old from New City, told NOTUS. “The only thing I can do is, like, get out there and vote and hope other people do for Cait.”

Democratic intraparty fighting could be a major factor this fall. Conley walloped her opponents in the primary, leading Davidson by 17 percentage points and Phillips-Staley by more than 44 percentage points. But the progressive contingent, uninspired by Conley, could stay home.

“I don’t want Mike Lawler to win but we’re not willing to compromise on all of our most important policy concerns just to beat him,” said Alexandra Cain, a resident of Philipstown.

Cain, 44, who runs Babies Not Bombs NY17, a progressive website, sent an open letter to Conley congratulating her on her primary win while urging her to work more closely with progressives. Among their list of demands is a call to “condition military aid to Israel on compliance with international humanitarian law.”

Conley told NOTUS about those concerns: “Although we might not agree on every policy, we do agree on the values of where we are trying to get to: ensuring affordable healthcare is the right of every person, that the government should be responsive to the people and not corporations, and that by working hard, you should not have to struggle to put food on the table or keep a roof over your head.”

While she deals with pressure to move to the left, Conley needs to make some inroads with independents and the Orthodox Jewish community in Rockland County, which traditionally votes as a bloc. Community leaders told NOTUS they expect voters will vote for Republicans down the ballot or split the ticket.

“If she wants to chip away at Lawler’s iron-clad support in this community, she better start showing up, which I have not seen much of that happening as of now,” Yossi Gestetner, a right-leaning political operative with a strong understanding of the Jewish community, told NOTUS.

Conley said she has been engaged with the community: “I have had the pleasure of meeting many voters in the Orthodox community and will continue to work hard to meet with as many voters as we can over the next four months.”

Democrats point to internal polling this month showing Conley up by 6 percentage points. But it’s still early and both parties intend to pour millions into the race. The Republican National Committee added six additional ground staff and has already knocked on more than 60,000 doors this year, Kristen Cianci, the committee Northeast regional communications director, told NOTUS. Both parties expect the race to be expensive once again; combined spending in the last cycle was roughly $34 million.

House Majority Forward, the nonprofit affiliate of the Democrats’ outside super PAC, is currently running ads in the district, and the group plans to invest “heavily” ahead of the midterm, according to a spokesperson. Conley was added to the “Red to Blue” program for candidates in competitive districts, which gives her “organizational and fundraising support” from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The race could end up being one of the most expensive this cycle as both parties target undecided and independent voters.

But with Republicans holding such a tight margin in the House, the race could ultimately turn less on individual candidates and more on party control.

“So, it’s not so much about him personally, but more of I want Democrats in the majority,” Frank Burgold, 39, of Chappaqua, told NOTUS of Lawler.