Election Myths and Truths

Today’s notice: What to watch for in prime time tonight. Tallying up the latest campaign fundraising numbers. Randy Fine declares war on a Trump adviser. Chuck Schumer gives a math lesson. And: Some hard numbers on immigration agents and the use of force.

THE LATEST

The election-fears bully pulpit: “The truth is, nobody knows yet what President Trump will ultimately say, which is why everyone should tune in.” That’s what White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Jasmine yesterday after we asked about what to expect from Donald Trump’s election integrity-themed address tonight.

We got a hint yesterday from CBS News, which reported that the speech will be about an alleged CIA cover-up of attempted Chinese interference in the 2020 election.

What we know for sure is that Trump intends to use one of the presidency’s most powerful tools — a prime-time address to the nation — to talk about a subject where he has generally been very distant from the facts. Entertaining conspiracy theories about the American electoral system, and a deep state that is rigging it, has been part of Trump’s political messaging from the start.

People who run America’s elections expect more of the same from this speech, and they are preparing to have to deal with the fallout. They remember when Trump claimed the California primaries in June were rigged, which was bogus. They remember the months and years before that, when he repeatedly claimed some results cannot be trusted.

The timing of this speech is making election officials nervous. Yesterday, we spoke to someone who is very wired into the nonpartisan business of running elections at the ground level — the basic stuff, the infrastructure stuff. They had a stark warning: If Trump uses the speech to further his election conspiracies, the impact could be dramatic. July is too late for major changes to election infrastructure, but plenty of time to foment new distrust in voting that has proven very difficult to combat.

“You can’t fact your way out of this kind of narrative, and that’s really hard for election officials broadly because our default response is, ‘Let me talk your ear off for an hour and a half about all the facts,’” this person told us.

The East Room address may be one of the biggest tools Trump has left in his quest to raise concerns about election integrity before November. As we detail in a story with NOTUS’ Violet Jira today, many of the president’s policy moves this term around elections have fizzled. But he’s still got the biggest megaphone on Earth.

Open tabs: Planning for Lindsey Graham’s funeral complicated by scheduling world leaders (Post&Courier); How Mike Lindell met Trump - and then won his endorsement for governor (Star-Tribune); JD Vance Says the Trump Admin Mishandled the Epstein Files’ Release (NOTUS); Officials asked to turn over phones at the White House as Wiles, Patel lead intensifying leak probe (CNN)

From the campaign trail

The turmoil gripping the Democratic Party and its many contested primaries isn’t affecting the fundraising figures of some of its top 2026 candidates, the latest Federal Election Commission filings show.

NOTUS’ Alex Roarty tells us that reports filed ahead of last night’s deadline show many of the party’s top candidates continuing to post incredibly strong fundraising receipts: Roy Cooper, for one, said he raised more than $14 million for his Senate race in North Carolina; Sherrod Brown said he raised more than $17 million for his Ohio Senate run; and Mary Peltola, the Senate nominee in Alaska, said she raised $7 million. Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia has more than $40 million in the bank.

Other FEC nuggets: Sen. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Arizona) campaign gave $19,000 it received from former Rep. Eric Swalwell to an organization combating sexual and domestic violence; pundit George Conway’s run to fifth place in the NY-12 Democratic primary personally cost him $2 million; and the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s campaign account has more than $2 million left in it.

From the Hill

Recon 4.0? House Republican leaders have floated yet another reconciliation package to pass after the November midterms, though it’s unclear whether they can even pass the current bill under discussion. The idea, NOTUS’ Joe Gould and Kadia Goba report, is that the fourth recon bill (future) could appease House GOP defense hawks who don’t think the third recon bill (current) goes far enough.

It could go to covering the major price tag to fund the Iran and Venezuela military operations, according to House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Alabama).

The challenges ahead for bills like this are substantive and … well … two sources familiar with the matter confirmed to Kadia and NOTUS’ Reese Gorman that Rep. Randy Fine (R-Florida) told the White House he plans to vote against every rule that comes across the House floor until Trump quits talking to Alex Bruesewitz, an outside presidential adviser Fine has been beefing with online.

Chuck Schumer’s NDAA math lesson: The Senate minority leader may be playing the long game after Democrats blocked Republicans from taking up the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act this week. Schumer is hoping to leverage the need to get the defense policy bill through the Senate with Democrats’ push for parity with nondefense spending, NOTUS’ Joe Gould points out.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) said changing the Trump administration’s request — $1.5 trillion for defense, $660 billion for nondefense — would get the NDAA moving.

“We can deal with the Iran issue with amendments,” Kaine said, “but the problem is we can’t really authorize a top line on defense without a nondefense top-line number — because a big increase in the defense budget, like, wait, is it coming out of Medicaid and SNAP?”

Republicans are livid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune accused Democrats of holding the bill “hostage” after offering a package of preapproved amendments, obtained by NOTUS, that was full of sweeteners for the minority party. Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi), who said he forged the bill in good faith with Democrats, claimed Schumer won’t stop at the NDAA in his efforts to embarrass Republicans before the midterms. “Mr. Schumer is angling for a government shutdown for political purposes,” Wicker said, “and doesn’t want anything to be accomplished.”

Stay tuned: The House will take up its NDAA next week.

NOTUS METRO

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Sports desk: The Mystics’ Sonia Citron Is an Unmistakable Star, by Dave Sheinin

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

The viral photo of the woman on the metro was powerful. But, asks Helena Andrews-Dyer at NOTUS Perspectives, was it also exploitative? Plus: Dana Milbank musters his investigative reporting skills to fight noise pollution — and wins.

NEW ON NOTUS

Documenting ICE: Immigration enforcement agents used or threatened to use force in nearly 400 incidents across eight states last year — against immigrants, protesters, observers and bystanders — according to a new ACLU report reviewed by NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos. Agents used their vehicles to box in people 52 times, rammed other cars 14 times, pulled 76 drivers and passengers out of their cars and smashed windows 47 times, Jackie writes.

More: Blanche Faces Cornyn-Size Hurdle in AG Confirmation Fight, by Al Weaver

Democrats Split Over Rep. Massie’s Amendment to Cut Israel Aid, by Torrie Herrington

Trump’s Intelligence Pick May Spark Congress to Renew Spy Powers, by Avani Kalra

NOT US

• We Went on the Road With Mike Johnson and His 1,477 Unread Text Messages, by Olivia Beavers for The Wall Street Journal
• Rare Lincoln Documents Exposed to Unsafe Heat in New Exhibit, NPS Staff Say, by Emma Uber for City Cast DC
• Inside Maine Democrats’ Unusual, Rushed Search for a New Senate Nominee, by Bayliss Wagner for The New York Times

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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr, Brett Bachman and Andrew Burton. Photo by Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP.