A Fair Deal?

Today’s notice: New documents reveal states’ concerns about the cost and tight timeline for Trump’s fair. An internal Treasury report warns Bessent about the risks of an AI bubble bursting. Trump makes a call to get a U.S. soccer player out of trouble. Health care providers for ICE detention centers go without pay. And: A NATO summit preview ahead of Trump’s trip to Turkey.

THE LATEST

The pressure was on to plan President Donald Trump’s highly touted Great American State Fair, but concerns about high costs and the quick timeline for the event haunted communications between Freedom 250 and state organizers for months, NOTUS’ Jenna Monnin and Sam Fortier report from documents they obtained.

“We have almost no budget, so every penny counts!” a New Hampshire official told Freedom 250 in an email when the state committed to the fair on May 19.

A $12,000 price tag for furnishings through Freeman, which called itself the “designated provider,” sent New Hampshire organizers spinning over a cost that was “not in the budget” for their state. “Even if it were, we do not have sufficient time to get the proper approvals,” an official said in an email.

Freeman is tied to the Trump administration. A major Republican donor who is the U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands, Joe Popolo, served on Freeman’s board for almost 20 years and was CEO of the company for 11 years. Popolo’s wife, Chris Freeman Popolo, describes herself as “an engaged shareholder in my family’s 95-year-old business, Freeman Co.”

Freedom 250 tells NOTUS it was unaware of Freeman’s connection to Popolo. A manager for Freeman described the company in an email to a state official as the “designated provider” for certain services like “material handling” and “furnishing” — though a Freedom 250 spokesperson said there was no exclusive requirement for states to use certain vendors.

Less than a month before the fair, Michigan organizers appeared to not have information about the state’s assigned booth number, dimensions of the space or whether Freeman would be able to restock their booth — as Freedom 250 indicated earlier — and help state staff move the materials from a drop-off location to the booth itself.

“Current rendering and information leave several important operational questions unanswered,” Michigan organizers told Freedom 250 in an email.

Open tabs: Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy on ending war in Ukraine (CBS); On a chaotic July Fourth, they spent up to $30K to watch the fireworks in style (WaPost); Three sons of Iran’s slain leader Khamenei appear at funeral, not his successor (Reuters); Paul Pelosi in hit-and-run in California, car left with major damage, authorities say (AP)

From Treasury

Scoop: Internal report warns of the dangers of an AI bubble. Career Treasury Department analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the U.S. economy than their dotcom predecessors were in the 2000s and therefore pose a significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change. That’s according to an internal report obtained by NOTUS’ Eric Katz.

The document was prepared for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and federal regulators and has been awaiting final approval.

A Treasury spokesperson dismissed the report’s findings as unvetted and not representative of the agency’s policies or views.

The report’s tone is very different from Bessent’s bullish take on AI. The analysts warn that while AI companies’ valuations are less speculative and generate more revenue than those in the dotcom era, the industry is at risk if it fails to grow as fast as it claims it can, or if companies can’t monetize their products.

From the White House

Trump pulled the trump card to reverse the red card ejection and subsequent one-match suspension for the U.S. team’s top scorer, Folarin Balogun. In a surprising U-turn for the soccer federation, FIFA announced Sunday that Balogun would be able to play in the U.S.’s match against Belgium today — after Trump called the president of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, and asked him to review the decision, NOTUS’ Jenna Monnin reports.

The president celebrated FIFA’s decision to reverse what he deemed a “great injustice” against Balogun in the U.S.’s match against Bosnia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Fox News reporter before FIFA reversed course that the U.S. team “got screwed with that red card” and called for an appeal process.

From DHS

Health care providers for ICE detention centers have not been paid, meaning dentists, pharmacies, emergency departments and others providing offsite care for immigrants in DHS custody are currently working for free. NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos reports Acentra Health, a Virginia-based company in charge of processing the payments, has pushed back the timeline for doing so by several months and most recently said it would start reimbursements later this year.

NOTUS METRO

Sign up for our local newsletter. NOTUS has some of the best reporters covering D.C.-area news, sports and culture. Sign up for all the latest, launching July 20!

Local news: D.C.’s Broken 311 App Has Sparked a Debate Over Government, Tech and AI, by Martin Austermuhle

Sports desk: It’s the Summer of Sports and Politics, by Jesse Dougherty

NEW ON NOTUS

The NATO summit listicle you need. All 32 member states meet this week during a fraught moment for the alliance. Trump flies into Ankara, Turkey, tonight where he’s expected to apply pressure for some countries to pony up. Poland, the Nordic countries and Germany are making progress on a pledge to boost defense spending, NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker told reporters Sunday, but “many others are lagging behind” and Trump expects every ally to “step up immediately” and reach the target. Here are five things to watch for, from NOTUS’ Joe Gould and Jenna Monnin. (Yes, one of them is Ukraine.)

More: Mallory McMorrow Drops Out of Michigan’s Senate Primary Race, by Stephen Neukam

DOGE Is Officially Ending. Agencies Are Hiring Again. By Natalie Alms and Eric Katz

Big Lobbying Spenders Are Going All Out at the Great American State Fair, by Dave Levinthal

The Secret Service Risked ‘Mission Effectiveness’ with Understaffing, Watchdog Says, by Derek Hawkins

NOT US

• The Comey effect: 10 years ago, an FBI news conference changed America, by Ryan J. Reilly for NBC
• The Pacific Ocean is running a fever. Why that’s an ominous sign. By Ben Noll for The Washington Post
• Prepare for Airplane Purgatory, by Nicholas Florko for The Atlantic

WEEK AHEAD

Today

Trump departs for Ankara, Turkey, for the NATO summit.

Tuesday

Trump arrives in Ankara and meets with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.

Michigan Democratic Senate primary debate.

Wednesday

Trump meets with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and hosts a news conference before departing the NATO summit.

Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary debate.

Thursday

Palm Beach International Airport is officially renamed Donald J. Trump International Airport, or DJT.

Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary debate.

Friday

Deadline for the bipartisan housing bill to be vetoed by the president or it becomes law.

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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Nikie Johnson. Photo by Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP.