It was pure exhilaration at the Palm Beach County Convention Center. The lines at the multiple bars at Donald Trump’s watch party kept growing. Actor Jon Voight took pictures with MAGA supporters. Billionaire David Sacks told NOTUS he was feeling “good.” And Roger Stone told reporters that Trump’s performance was “the greatest comeback in American political history.”
Nine primary challengers, two Democratic candidates, two assassination attempts, four indictments and 34 convictions later, Trump has secured his second term in the White House.
“This will truly be a golden age of America,” Trump said as he declared victory at 2:30 a.m.
NOTUS’ Reese Gorman and Ben T.N. Mause distilled the Trump triumph like this: “Despite voter anger over the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, Trump won. Despite the uproar over comments from a comedian that Puerto Rico was a “floating island of garbage” at his Madison Square Garden rally nine days before the election, Trump won. Despite Trump questioning Harris’ race, and his comments about immigrants being “bloodthirsty criminals” and “the most violent people on earth,” and his insistence that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and the realities about his economic record, he won.”
And now, armed with Senate control, a House of Representatives that is poised to — at the very least — be incredibly close, and a chance at the popular vote, Trump will have a long leash to enact his agenda.
Trump has promised to execute mass deportations, build the wall at the southern border, end the war in Ukraine, enact extensive new tariffs, slash interest rates, install Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk in his cabinet and seek revenge on his enemies.
As his former aide Stephanie Grisham said on the campaign trail last month, when Trump embarked on his first term eight years ago, “We couldn’t find the bathrooms or lights. We knew nothing when we joined, let alone the powers he had.” This time, Trump says “nothing will stop” him from enacting his agenda.
Devastation at Howard University
The mood was somber and dispirited at Kamala Harris’ watch party — and the vice president was nowhere to be found. Since its inception, the Harris-Walz campaign had been bullish on the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as the surest path to elect the first woman president. But hope slipped through Harris’ fingers in a manner perhaps best described to NOTUS by one Democrat via Signal: “brutal.”
“I want to go home, get in my own bed and cry,” one person who has been in the VP’s orbit since her first presidential run told NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright and Calen Razor.
Democratic finger-pointing is already afoot. And there are plenty of potential issues to blame. Did Biden stay in the race too long? Did Democrats mismanage their strategy to win voters of color and men? Did Harris tack too far to the middle? Did she pick the wrong VP?
Or, as one senior Pennsylvania Democrat told NOTUS, “maybe Democrats were always going to fucking lose.”
The Polls… Were Pretty Spot On
Follow the herd(ing). The swing states were, in fact, really close, and polling that showed Trump had a real chance to win was right. J. Ann Selzer was not. It will be a while before the full polling performance last night is deeply examined, but this morning, all the debates about recall vote screen and polling averages being flooded by Republican-leaning polls appear to be basically moot.
This is not a particularly satisfying answer for people who want to look to polling averages and forecasters to predict an election. For most of the period Harris was in the race, those averages and forecasts wobbled around versions of “anything could happen.” They were not wrong (except that thing Selzer said could happen, that did not happen). Public polling has survived 2024, which means there will be more forecasts and averages in our future.
Pollsters also suggested ticket-splitting would not play a huge role in this election, another controversial take. Some pundits said voters would vote against Trump but for a Republican Senate. Polling said that was not likely, and in fact, it wasn’t. The House may end up Democratic and the Senate Republican, but ticket-splitting didn’t happen.
—Evan McMorris-Santoro
The View Down-Ballot
- Republicans Win Control of the Senate: The 2024 election was always going to be a tough one for Democrats.
- A Giddy Rick Scott Moves On to His Next Campaign: Senate Republican Leader: “Florida is the center of the Republican Party of this country,” Scott said.
- Sarah McBride Becomes First Openly Transgender Member of Congress: Hakeem Jeffries has already acknowledged that McBride’s security will need to be addressed.
- Ted Cruz Secures Reelection, Spoiling Democrats’ Hopes of a Blue Texas: “This decisive victory should shake the Democrat establishment to its core,” Cruz said.
What’s Undecided?
After losing the White House and the Senate, one Democrat told NOTUS that now, for them, “hope runs through the House.”
Where exactly? All eyes are on California, where as of Wednesday morning, there were many uncalled races that could ultimately decide control of the speaker’s gavel. Here are some races to watch:
California:
- CA-27th: Rep. Mike Garcia vs. George Whitesides
- CA-13th: Rep. John Duarte vs. Adam Gray
- CA-47th: Scott Baugh vs. Dave Min
- CA-45th: Rep. Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran
Outside of California, here are three more we have our eye on:
- NY-4th: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito vs. Laura Gillen
- ME-2nd: Rep. Jared Golden vs. Austin Theriault
- NE-2nd: Rep. Don Bacon vs. Tony Vargas
How Abortion Measures Fared
In solidly blue Maryland and Colorado, voters codified abortion into their state’s constitution. In New York, a first-of-its-kind proposition blocking discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes” won. Even in the Republican stronghold of Missouri, voters passed abortion protections.
The latest wins build on a wave of abortion-protection ballot measures passing in red states since the fall of Roe v. Wade. (Remember Kansas in 2022 and Ohio in 2023?)
It was far from a clean sweep for abortion-rights advocates. Florida Republicans delivered a blow early Tuesday night to the state-level push to enshrine access. As NOTUS’ Oriana González reports, a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights fell short of the state’s 60% threshold with 57% of the vote. (Florida currently bans abortion at approximately six weeks.)
In South Dakota, where abortion is banned, voters rejected an abortion-rights initiative with an overwhelming 61% of the electorate voting against protecting the procedure. And an initiative in Nebraska gave anti-abortion activists their first big win post-Dobbs.
Number You Should Know
25
The percentage swing between Biden’s performance in one crucial South Texas border county in 2020 and Harris’ performance in 2024. Biden won Webb County, Texas, by 23 points. Trump won it this year by 2 points.
Republicans have made these South Texas border counties the face of the immigration crisis. Once Democratic strongholds, political realignment in the region spells trouble for Democrats nationally and in the state.
Tell Us Your Thoughts
What will Democrats take away from this election?
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