As Tuesday became Wednesday, the presidential race hadn’t yet been called, but Republicans were already celebrating one key victory: The U.S. Senate.
With the GOP flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio — and officially hanging on in Nebraska — Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. They may also add to their numbers, with races in Pennsylvania, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan — all seats that Democrats are defending — yet to be called.
Businessman Bernie Moreno’s win over incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is a particular bright spot for Republicans, completing Ohio’s political realignment and sidelining one of the Democratic Party’s best messengers.
Election Day was shaping up to be a tough one for Democrats, with the White House increasingly looking good for Donald Trump and Republicans defending Senate seats in Florida and Texas — both races that were called swiftly Tuesday evening.
Early Wednesday morning, they were taking a victory lap. The official Senate Republicans X account posted just: “LETS GO.”
All told, Senate races will cost over $2.5 billion, with each of the three most expensive races — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — topping $250 million, according to AdImpact. Democrats are projected to outspend Republicans by over $200 million.
Republicans leaned on a familiar recruiting maneuver to lighten the financial burden of an expensive and expansive Senate battleground: wealthy, male self-funders.
The GOP challengers — in concert with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines — largely campaigned on the reliably conservative issues of crime, inflation and immigration. Whether Republicans tackle those topics in the majority remains to be seen and hinges on House and White House control.
But regardless of which party wields presidential power, the Senate must address Trump’s 2017 tax package, which is set to expire in 2025, a June debt ceiling deadline and a suite of annual authorization and appropriations bills.
Of course, with Senate control also comes the ability to set a more broad legislative agenda. If Trump wins the White House, his administration will undoubtedly lean on the Senate to advance his administration’s conservative priorities. But the Senate will also be critical for confirming judges and administration posts.
As Republican strategist Brian Walsh told NOTUS, “If President Trump wins the White House, obviously he would be the guiding force of what that larger agenda looks like beyond just the tax cuts.”
It will take more than Trump’s whim, however, to actually enact policy. Even with the Republican Senate win, the GOP did not pick-up enough seats to hit the 60-vote threshold necessary to override the legislative filibuster. That means Republicans will have to compromise with moderate Democrats to attract necessary support to pass legislation. It also gives senior centrist Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski — known for bucking their party and criticizing Trump — outsized negotiating power.
In the case of a Harris presidency, the GOP Senate’s influence would be even less expansive, but would force the White House to engage in some degree of bipartisan negotiations. While Harris would maintain the power to veto any conservative legislation, she would need Senate Republicans to play ball to advance her own policies and nominations.
“Democrats would still be able to retain power,” Democratic strategist and former senior aide to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rebecca Pearcey, told NOTUS. “We would be able to block bills being sent over to the House.”
Now armed with Senate control, Republicans will return to Capitol Hill during the lame duck session next week to elect retiring GOP Leader Mitch McConnell’s successor. Former Republican whip, John Cornyn, and current whip, John Thune, are widely considered the frontrunners. Sen. Rick Scott is also seeking the Senate’s top job — as he did unsuccessfully in 2022. His darkhorse candidacy has picked up support from a contingent of staunch conservatives, setting him up to potentially play spoiler.
Sen. John Barrasso is running unopposed for whip. Sens. Joni Ernst and Tom Cotton are running for conference chair — though if Trump wins the White House, Cotton is rumored to be in the mix for a number of cabinet appointments. And Sen. Tim Scott has reportedly cleared the field for National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair.
The leadership races will be decided by secret ballot, making them notoriously hard to predict.
But on Monday, Walsh — also a former senior Cornyn staffer — called the majority leader race “effectively a dead heat” between Cornyn and Thune. Both senators have lended their fundraising prowess to the fight for the upper chamber. And notably, both men have, at times, been critical of Trump.
“A lot of senators also want to see what happens this week,” Walsh said of the leadership race, “and what the political landscape looks like after Tuesday.”
Republicans might not want to get too comfortable, however. It’s never too early to start planning for the next 2026 campaign, which will feature tough races in Maine, North Carolina and Alaska. And Democrats are already eager for a rematch.
“If Republicans take control of the Senate, I think it will be by a close margin,” Pearcey predicted Tuesday morning. “That makes me hopeful for 2026.”
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.