Today’s notice: What to know about TN-07. There’s not much to know about the state of ACA subsidy talks. An update to our Relaxium investigation. And: Truly, no one is betting on a health care deal.
THE LATEST
Tennesseein’ is Tennebelievin’. “It’s a big vote. It’s going to show something. It’s got to show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been,” Donald Trump told voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District last night, his voice coming through Mike Johnson’s cell phone at a rally for GOP nominee Matt Van Epps.
It would be close to a “pigs fly” moment if Epps loses this. But public polling has shown a close race, and Johnson’s appearance on election eve shows Republicans are taking those numbers seriously. But not, you know, crazy seriously — Trump called in, he didn’t visit.
Privately, Democrats don’t want a special election in this extremely red district to be any kind of litmus test for the midterms. But they can read numbers, too, and they are also buying plane tickets to stump for their nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn. If Behn wins, she will be famous. If she overperforms by a lot, various precincts shifting blue will be famous.
The bigger question: What will this mean for Democrats trying to run in red places next year? Democrats told NOTUS’ Oriana González about potential pickup opportunities from eastern New York all the way down to, well, Tennessee — where she found both Democrats and Republicans excited about poor fundraising numbers from Rep. Andy Ogles (for different reasons, obviously).
Ogles has a GOP primary challenger, but Oriana’s reporting on him getting outraised by a Democrat certainly suggests some unexpected momentum for the party.
The truth: There is a very long way to go. “You can’t draw broad conclusions that’s going to be reflective of what’s going to happen in 2026,” Rep. Shomari Figures, a Democrat from Alabama, told Oriana. “We still got to get out there. Still got to run the races.”
Open tabs: A pared-back White House Christmas — with a Trump Lego portrait (WaPo); National Guard member shot in DC has shown positive signs (AP); Top Jewish donors take stock of GOP infighting over Israel (Politico); A teenager redrew Alabama’s voting map — now it’s state law (The Guardian)
From the Hill
Don’t wait up for an answer to the Affordable Care Act subsidies question, the NOTUS Hill team reports. Increasingly, few on Capitol Hill think current talks will actually result in a bipartisan deal prior to Dec. 31. The White House has not weighed in yet — but when it almost did last week it did not go well at all.
“I will be sad if at the end of the day we just let it lapse and have no answer,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew, one of the Republicans pushing his colleagues hard to get on this, told the team.
Plus, watch this space. The Trump administration’s rhetoric on Afghan refugees isn’t sitting right with all Republicans. “It’s unfortunate this one bad apple spoils a whole bunch,” Rep. Michael McCaul told NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos of the White House plan to put a blanket halt on Afghan asylum and visa proceedings.
“Obviously there are a number of Afghan refugees who helped us tremendously over 20 years, and if they were sent back to Afghanistan would probably be subjected to punishment or death,” Rep. Mike Lawler told Jackie. “So, you know, to me, this needs to be evaluated carefully.”
From the White House
It wasn’t fake news. Despite what administration officials said before, they admitted yesterday that there, in fact, had been a second U.S. airstrike on a suspected drug trafficking boat on Sept. 2. The fake news now is the report that the second strike was directly ordered by Pete Hegseth.
It was actually Adm. Frank M. “Mitch” Bradley who gave the order, Karoline Leavitt said. Hegseth said he supported the order: “I stand by him and the combat decisions he has made — on the September 2 mission and all others since,” the defense secretary posted last night.
Lawmakers from both parties are now calling for a probe into the incident. “I’ve spoken to the secretary, I’ve spoken to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and we’re going to do a vigorous oversight of a very serious charge and find out if there’s anything to it,” Sen. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Monday.
NEW ON NOTUS
Fired up: “The workforce is so shot out and depleted … We’re behind the targets, even when the targets have been reduced,” one current U.S. Forest Service manager told NOTUS’ Anna Kramer.
Senate Democrats, led by Jeff Merkley, Amy Klobuchar and Martin Heinrich, are circulating an outside analysis of Forest Service data finding federal fire management woefully behind past years (and past years’ stats aren’t something to write home about). They’ve written the agency demanding to know staffing levels and a plan for mitigation, according to the letter exclusively shared with NOTUS.
It was all a dream. The U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has basically disappeared from the paid testimonials for Relaxium sleep pills following NOTUS’ Dave Levinthal’s investigation into the former governor’s financial relationship with the company. The U.S. Embassy Jerusalem told Dave that Huckabee has not amended a name, image and likeness contract he signed with Relaxium before getting his ambassadorship.
Trump loyalty test: “I am 100% breaking with her campaign out of loyalty to the President,” Austin McCubbin, a longtime Republican operative and Nancy Mace campaign adviser, said of his decision to cut ties with the South Carolina firebrand. “Nancy Mace is wittingly or unwittingly a proxy for Rand Paul’s 2028 presidential campaign.”
More: A Socialist Mayoral Candidate Is Throwing Her Hat Into the Ring in D.C., by Amelia Benavides-Colón
Appeals Court Rules Alina Habba’s Post as New Jersey’s U.S. Attorney Is Unlawful, by Jose Pagliery
DeSantis Plans to Call Special Florida Redistricting Session Early Next Year, by Amelia Benavides-Colón
NOTUS PERSPECTIVES
It’s Giving Tuesday, so we asked seven experts to name one philanthropic area that should get more attention and funding — and one that should get less. Read responses here from Peter Singer, Darla Silva, Chris Addy, Carmen Rojas, Deborah Lehr, Stacy Palmer and Phil Buchanan.
NOT US
- Zohran Mamdani will be sworn in as NYC’s 111th mayor. But what if that number’s wrong? By Elizabeth Kim for Gothamist
- The Bubble-Wrapped President, by Jonathan Lemire for The Atlantic
- When Participating in Politics Puts Your Life at Risk, by Benjamin Wallace-Wells for The New Yorker
BE SOCIAL
Concepts of a payout. If you’re a prediction-market watcher, we noticed an interesting change: Kalshi gamblers traders became suddenly cynical about an ACA subsidy extension, with the market on that exact question tanking from Republicans wouldn’t risk a premium spike before the midterms, right? (49.5% “yes” at 5 p.m. ET Sunday) to No way the House Freedom Caucus would let this stand (22% just 24 hours later).
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