Today’s notice: Uncertainty is back. Trump’s tax message is getting drowned out. Can you make ChatGPT say nice things about your candidate? Plus: Hope for health care reform springs eternal.

THE LATEST

Déjà vu all over again. Last night, stock market futures dropped and oil prices rose as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threw the global economy into uncertainty. Donald Trump threatened to attack civilian infrastructure in Iran if the regime doesn’t back down, and Tehran rebuffed the threat. Shots were fired by the Iranians against Western-allied ships, and by American forces against an Iranian ship, which was also seized.

In other words, there is not much tangible difference between today and two Mondays ago, when the world was waiting to see whether Trump would make good on his “a whole civilization will die” threat.

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” the president posted Sunday morning.

The American public does not appear to be supportive of the war. Yes, you’ve read that before and it remains true. A poll from Politico released Saturday became the latest survey to show the conflict is still unpopular.

What comes next: Trump is urging new talks in Pakistan. Iran is saying no publicly. And time is running out — the two-week ceasefire agreement is set to expire Wednesday. But as of early Sunday afternoon, a White House official told NOTUS the plan was still for special envoy Steve Witkoff and volunteer/the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner to go to Islamabad this week, along with Vice President JD Vance.

Open tabs: The Inside Story of Five Days That Remade the Supreme Court (NYT); The FBI Director Is MIA (The Atlantic); Trump-branded AI data center megaproject stalls, CEO departs (Axios); House Oversight Committee to investigate missing, dead scientists (The Hill)

From the Hill

Trump vs. taxes. Senate Republicans have one big problem on their hands this tax season: their inability to streamline messaging and sell popular components of their so-called “one big, beautiful bill” while the attention-grabbing war in Iran drags on, NOTUS’ Al Weaver reports.

“It’s something that we want to be focused on. Unfortunately … world events have kind of taken over,” Sen. Mike Rounds told Al.

Making matters worse, some Republicans say, is the president — who has resisted his party’s appeals to take a more focused role in selling the bill, which has been rebranded as the “Working Families Tax Cut Act.”

“It’s very concerning,” one Senate Republican told NOTUS, noting that Trump also continues to refer to it as the “one big, beautiful bill” rather than the new title that members have grown accustomed to using.

“My God, look at the polling numbers,” the senator continued, pointing out that the slogan geared toward working-class families is polling much higher. “We have got to be pitch perfect to protect our incumbents, and we’re not even singing in the same tongue right now, let alone having people singing from the same hymn books.”

From the campaign trail

Chatbot conundrums. Political operatives know some Americans will turn to Claude or ChatGPT to answer the most important question in November: Who should I vote for? But due to the inscrutable nature of large language models and the difficulty of influencing their answers, many political operatives have simply opted to ignore the technology, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports.

“Nobody has written that playbook yet on the LLM stuff,” said Pat Dennis, the president of the liberal outside group American Bridge 21st Century. “So a lot of people just aren’t doing it.”

Bridge is one of the few groups that has said publicly it is seeking to influence answers for people who ask LLMs about politics. But its effort is, for now, an isolated one, according to interviews with more than a dozen political strategists, Alex reports.

“To me, it just feels like a giant space race, one in which the first rocket hasn’t been launched yet,” said one national Republican operative.

From DHS

DACA delays stretch on. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services reported that as of February, its median processing time to renew DACA protections for eligible applicants is 2.3 months — the longest since 2016, though the agency contends that it completes 80% of its cases in 3.5 months and recommends that recipients submit their renewal paperwork five months in advance of their expiration.

NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos goes deep on what the delays have meant for people who have counted on DACA, including lost jobs and financial struggles.

NEW ON NOTUS

Hope for health care reform springs eternal. Legislation to address drug prices and the cost of medical insurance is at a standstill in Washington — but the issue is still an animating force on Democratic campaigns, NOTUS’ Avani Kalra reports. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, one of the key negotiators who pushed unsuccessfully to extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, told Avani that Democrats plan to bring up the issue at a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. this week.

She also said that Republicans’ plan to push another reconciliation bill could present an opening to inject some energy into the health care debate and force a vote on the issue.

“That will be an opportunity,” Shaheen told NOTUS. “I haven’t talked to leadership, but I think that’s something we should do.”

NOT US

• Trump’s fixation on White House ballroom is increasing, Post analysis finds, by Clara Ence Morse and Dan Diamond for The Washington Post
  
• With Trump Novices, Can the U.S. Win the ‘Art Olympics’? By Zachary Small for The New York Times
  
• The RFK Jr. Ally Steering Millions to Boost MAHA’s Clout in the Midterms, by Liz Essley Whyte for The Wall Street Journal

WEEK AHEAD

This week

Cabinet secretaries expected regularly on the Hill as committees in both chambers take up annual budget requests.

Today

Lobbying Disclosure Act Q1 filing deadline.

Tuesday

Election Day for the Virginia redistricting referendum.

The Senate banking committee is set to hold its confirmation hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

Wednesday

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are all currently scheduled to appear at Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearings.

Thursday

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to appear at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Trump’s trade agenda.

Saturday

Trump is scheduled to speak at the White House Correspondents Dinner.

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