Today’s notice: Thom Tillis’ reelection bid will test his ability to be both a staunch conservative and bipartisan. Mike Johnson and John Thune are getting ready for a rousing game of reconciliation ping pong. And what rough continuing resolution, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Congress to be born?
Navigating Treacherous Waters With Captain Tillis
It may be hard to imagine, but there will be something else to talk about in politics other than Donald Trump relatively soon. The midterm elections will be a test of MAGA’s expanded coalition in an electoral environment that heavily favors the party out of power. NOTUS’ Ursula Perano and Calen Razor take us to that future world with a profile of North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis.
Here’s the basic dynamic, as summed up by his longtime adviser Paul Shumaker: “The only way that Donald Trump’s presidency has a long-lasting legacy is by having good midterms in 2026. And that means having candidates who are able to win in these battleground states.”
If you look up a textbook definition of “easier said than done,” you might see that quote.
Ursula and Calen describe the delicate balance Tillis has to perform to stay competitive for reelection. He’s got to push away primary opponents like former Lt. Gov. candidate Andy Nilsson, who told Ursula and Calen that Tillis is an unreliable squish who has forsaken his conservative promises. Tillis was formally censured by the North Carolina GOP in 2023 for not being conservative enough. So he needs to solve that problem. And after that, he has to run in a general election against a Democratic Party ready to say he’s a sellout who will do whatever Trump wants, even if it hurts his state.
Before all that campaigning starts, Tillis must be a senator with a disposition that can disprove both these lines of attack against him at the same time, while also not angering Trump enough for the president to Truth Social the GOP primary into high gear.
It’s gonna be close. Just ask Tillis. “When you’ve got the unaffiliated base now at over 40%, it’s an independent state, and I love that,” he told NOTUS. “The way you win in North Carolina is you’re gonna win somewhere around 49%, maybe 50%.”
Speaking Of…
Tillis took issue with DOGE running wild in the Pentagon after NOTUS’ John T. Seward asked him about the deep concerns that staff have about cuts there. Five sources told John that DOD leadership “is still not informed on DOGE’s plan for civilian personnel.” Firings “could strain department tactical training, logistics, procurement and other activities that civilian DOD employees largely execute,” sources said.
A big deal for the military. Which makes it a big deal for Tillis, who represents a state with a deep military presence.
“There’s just got to be a rational basis for ‘the anticipated firings.’ Anytime you do things on a broad basis … you’ve always got to be ready to do remediation,” Tillis told John. He wants DOGE to defer to Pentagon department heads before handing out pink slips.
Front Page
- The ‘Battle of Governors’ Between Louisiana and New York Might Go to Court: Some Republican lawmakers said they’d back the Louisiana attorney general in whatever she chooses to do over an abortion case.
- A California Lawmaker Wants to Make It Illegal for Trump to Hawk Crypto: Rep. Sam Liccardo’s legislation would bar presidents and lawmakers from pushing stocks or crypto for personal gain.
- Bill Cassidy Is Already Pressing RFK Jr. on Vaccine Policy: The doctor and senator said he plans to ask the health secretary about the cancellation of an important flu vaccine meeting.
- Virginia Democrats Are Looking for a New Face to Lead the State Party: An election to replace outgoing Chair Susan Swecker, who announced she will step down after a replacement is picked, is set to be held next month.
Johnson and Thune’s Reconciliation Hot Potato
Now that both chambers have adopted a budget resolution, Mike Johnson and John Thune are staring down a bigger challenge: compromise.
Although Trump has endorsed Johnson’s “one big, beautiful bill,” NOTUS’ Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz report that there are plenty of snags that would require some interchamber, intraparty negotiations to appease the president.
For one, Trump wants to renew the individual tax cuts in the GOP’s 2017 tax overhaul while also adding policies like “no taxes on tips” and another corporate tax reduction. The $4.5 trillion that the House approved for tax cuts, however, hardly leaves enough room to simply extend current tax rates.
Another problem: Trump wants to make the tax cuts in the bill permanent. Senate Republicans — like Trump and many vulnerable House Republicans — are also resistant to large-scale Medicaid cuts, which would give them the wiggle room to enact permanence.
Oh, and they also want to finish everything by early April.
Easy!
Lawmakers Scramble to Avert a Shutdown
With just two weeks — and seven legislative days — until shutdown-o-clock, lawmakers are scattered.
The consensus on Capitol Hill is that a continuing resolution until Sept. 30 is the most plausible path toward averting a shutdown, but lawmakers also have a lot of politicking before they can get one signed into law. A few of the hang-ups include:
- Appropriations Chair Tom Cole is calling for a “clean” CR vote next week, while Johnson announced this week that he wants to codify Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts. That’s going to be a bright red line for Democrats, who have raged against DOGE for weeks.
- Republicans know they need Democrats to pass a spending bill. But Democrats are demanding assurances that Trump uses appropriated funds for their intended purpose. That’s a nonstarter for Republicans.
- Musk is flirting with shutdown talk, and nearly stoked one in December. He’s an unpredictable X-factor that leadership is monitoring.
- Time is running out, and appropriators are fuming that their FY25 work might be torched in the process.
“We ran out of time in September. We ran out of time in December. We’re running out of time in March,” Rep. Steve Womack, a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, told NOTUS. “I’m beginning to feel like the appropriations process is irrelevant.”
Number You Should Know
$6,075,000,000
That’s the revenue the Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. would lose over the next five years if Trump signs into law a Congressional Review Act measure to repeal a Biden-era methane emissions fine, which could make Congress’ already-tough budget negotiations that much tougher this year. No Democrats voted to overturn it in the Senate, but in the House, six Dems joined almost every Republican to repeal the rule, which was finalized last November.
—Emily Kennard
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- The trans Americans turning to guns for protection by Hallie Lieberman at The Washington Post
- Inside the FBI’s Lab Leak Investigation by Katherine Eban at Vanity Fair
- American business leaders are turning on Trump — fast by Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami at Semafor
Be Social
We told you they couldn’t resist.
Thursday afternoon jet fumes, senators running to catch their flights
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) February 27, 2025
Nature is healing
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