Rules-Based Order

Today’s notice: The tension over “rules of engagement” rhetoric. The truth about how fragile the D.C. water supply is. California Democrats in the aftermath of Prop. 50. And: Trump branding meets America’s 250th.

THE LATEST

What are the rules of this war? “We’re going to blow the hell out of these people,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham told Fox News yesterday. He’s one of the most ardent supporters of the current war, and a man who has publicly dreamed about American combat operations against the Iranian regime for a long time. How different in tactical terms are these operations from the ones he might have seen from past administrations?

Very different, this administration strongly hints. Commander in chief Donald Trump suggested in a post over the weekend he was considering clearing American forces to attack “areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time.” That followed a week of Pete Hegseth repeatedly signaling the rules of engagement for U.S. forces had been loosened (he’s been a longtime critic of the U.S. rules governing warfare).

The White House referred questions about what, exactly, American forces are allowed to do now that they weren’t allowed to do before to the Pentagon. The Defense Department did not respond to our requests.

“Hegseth has always had a problem with the rules of engagement and he’s not alone, by the way,” a source familiar with Pentagon operations told us. There was frustration up and down the ranks at the rules of combat during the war on terror, which “really put people in a bad position,” the source said. “The other side is not adhering to norms. So how do you handle an enemy that is not adhering to norms?”

But the way these terms are being thrown around frustrates some who served in those wars. One combat veteran from Afghanistan and Iraq now involved in political communications said the gloves are off is a confusing message. Rules of engagement are theater-specific, sometimes battle-specific, and highly classified. They are about how to achieve mission goals as effectively as possible, not about changing the laws of warfare that govern American forces in any combat operation.

Politicizing ROEs the way this administration has could send a message the military does not want to send, the vet said — to civilians and servicemembers alike. “An accidental strike that strikes civilians, that’s demoralizing. That is not something that the members of the military want,” the vet said. “Equally as demoralizing as someone who feels like their hands are tied behind [their] back. So there isn’t, like, a clear win here.”

This tension is playing out in a public way. Even as they boast about looser ROEs, the administration has distanced itself from any strikes outside the bounds of what Americans expect from their military. Trump said an early strike on an Iranian school was caused by an Iranian weapon, despite investigations from multiple outlets that point to a coalition weapon being responsible.

Standing behind Trump on Air Force One, Hegseth hedged, saying: “We’re certainly investigating” — though he added: “The only side that targets civilians is Iran.”

What comes next. Iran announced Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the Ayatollah killed by coalition strikes in the opening days of the war, has taken over as the nation’s top leader. So, for the time being at least, Trump’s demands for unconditional surrender and regime change remain a long way off. The seriousness of that for Americans was again made clear after the Pentagon announced yesterday that a seventh U.S. service member had died in combat.

Open tabs: Trump Says He Won’t Sign Any Legislation Until the SAVE America Act Is Passed (NOTUS); Judge voids Kari Lake’s mass layoffs at Voice of America (MS NOW); Trump moves to undo tax rule that Biden said would bring in $100 billion (NYT); FBI launches terrorism investigation after IED ignited outside of Mamdani’s residence (CBS)

From the District

Be more afraid of the poop. It takes just 24 hours for the D.C. region to exhaust its backup water supply, NOTUS’ Anna Kramer writes of the worst-case scenario for a sewage crisis in the area. The nation’s capital once again avoided that scenario when the Potomac Interceptor burst, and right now, contamination levels are improving. But the fragility of the D.C.-area water system is a problem that there’s very little political will to solve.

“You’re looking at contingency measures for all of the hundreds of agencies throughout D.C. and NOVA, as well as the Pentagon and the White House” should the next crisis be harder to solve, a spox for the Baltimore District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers told Anna.

From the Hill

It’s SPR fight time. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the national average for gasoline could hit $4 a gallon this week, according to many analysts. As Anna notes, that kind of price spike is a political nightmare for the party in power — and an opportunity for the one out of power.

Blaming “Donald Trump’s reckless war of choice,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer demanded that the president “release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve IMMEDIATELY to bring relief to Americans at the pump.”

The truth about all this. In texts with Anna last night, Kpler oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi likened a combination of global SPR releases and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to a “lollipop” that the markets need in order to keep prices in check. Unlocking the SPR alone won’t do it.

“We figured oil prices will go up,” Trump said on AF1, “which they will. They’ll also come down, they’ll come down very fast.” When asked about the SPR, Trump replied that he was thinking about filling it up, not draining it.

From the campaign trail

One man’s California redistricting mess. Prop. 50 was a huge win for national Democrats, creating a new congressional district map in the state that they hope will offset Republican redistricting elsewhere. But it’s not easy for California Democrats who have seen their political ecosystem scrambled.

NOTUS’ Oriana González explores the awkwardness through the story of Ammar Campa-Najjar, a perennial (losing) candidate with a history as an ideological chameleon. He sees the new lines around Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s district as his last chance to get into Congress.

But other Democrats see a bad side effect of Prop. 50 in Campa-Najjar’s excitement. Rep. Dave Min endorsed his bid cycle under the old lines, but pulled it after redistricting passed. “I was like, ‘I’ll need to take a beat to figure out, you know, which candidates are going to run, who’s serious, and all that. I’m still evaluating,’” Min said he told Campa-Najjar.

From your favorite podcast app

In this week’s On NOTUS, Sen. Chris Murphy speaks with Reese Gorman about why he thinks Democrats need to block all legislation in the Senate until there’s a vote on war authorization with Iran. He also discusses how his party can talk about affordability in the context of the war and what he thinks a 2028 nominee for president needs to bring to the table. “Democrats should not just pretend like this is normal,” Murphy told Reese. “We shouldn’t let Republicans debate other legislation until they bring a war authorization to the United States Senate.”

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

What will Iran look like in one year?Eight guesses from foreign policy experts.

Featuring Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; Jamie Fly of Freedom House; Kevan Harris of UCLA; Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution; Linda Robinson of the Council on Foreign Relations; Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute; Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Uzra Zeya of Human Rights First.

NEW ON NOTUS

Trump branding meets America’s 250th: The president’s family business filed several previously unreported trademark applications last week in connection with America’s 250th anniversary celebration, all featuring Trump’s name as a centerpiece of the festivities.

The planned uses for the images include bumper stickers, tote bags, drinkware, clothing items and golf balls, among other merchandise, NOTUS’ Amelia Benavides-Colón and Dave Levinthal report.

More: Republican Senator Says Stephen Miller Should Be Next to Go

NOT US

• Americans Are Now a Target in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown, by Brenna T. Smith, Hannah Critchfield, Brian Whitton, Belle Cushing, Emma Scott, and design by Annie Ng for The Wall Street Journal
  
• 5 lessons from Vinay Prasad’s turbulent tenure at the FDA, by Matthew Herper for STAT
  
• Sources: Trump’s inner circle scrambled to execute Iran war plans despite initial misgivings, by Adam Cancryn for CNN

WEEK AHEAD

Today: The president is set to address the House Republican retreat at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Florida. The retreat will continue for three days.

JD Vance is set to address the IAFF Legislative Conference in D.C. He’s just one of several potential 2028 contenders making a speech to the firefighters, including Democrats like Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Other Republicans on the agenda include Sens. Susan Collins and Deb Fischer and Rep. Rob Bresnahan.

A weeklong House recess begins.

Tuesday: Primary Election Day in Mississippi.

Hearing examining birthright citizenship is set for the Constitution subcommittee of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

This week: White House reportedly will announce its list of “onerous” state-level AI regulations.

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