Pivot to Prices

Today’s notice: It’s the economy, stupid. Democrats are winning court challenges on one key issue. Trump phones Republican senators to talk war powers. And: Trump’s domestic drilling push hits a snag.

THE LATEST

Bluster bust? What comes after Donald Trump’s big economic speech? Republicans know they need to pivot to prices, and do it fast as the midterms draw closer. But Trump may find it harder than it has been at any point during his second term to get his party on the same page.

The loudest challenge is in the Senate, where Republicans have lined up to defend Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump wants to cast as the Darth Vader of American pocketbooks, squeezing them from afar with his refusal to lower interest rates to the president’s liking.

But the generally more amenable House may be going sideways, too. The Republican Study Committee, the caucus that includes the vast majority of GOP lawmakers, is pitching a second party-line reconciliation bill as a way to send an affordability message to voters — though the broad outlines of the plan released yesterday calls for more big cuts to things like health care.

Moderates appear skeptical of this, NOTUS’ Jade Lozada and Violet Jira report. The last reconciliation bill was a tough vote for them, and this one would come closer to a moment when voters are actually paying attention.

Even supporters are skeptical. “I know how difficult it was to pass the last one, and with having even a smaller majority now, there’s simply no path to pass a second one,” Rep. Jason Smith, the Ways and Means Committee’s chair, told NOTUS’ Reese Gorman. “I’d love to, but the reality is it won’t ever happen.”

The math is a problem. House Republicans surprised a lot of people with their ability to make their slim majority look much larger under the cajoling of Trump and Mike Johnson. But now, even if Johnson has full attendance, he can only afford to lose two votes.

The calendar is a bigger problem. “I don’t think they’re going to do a lot in an election year,” Rep. Thomas Massie told NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz.

This may be Trump’s biggest problem. The president is pitching some big, bold stuff, and he needs Congress to buy in. Reese reports on a GOP conference barely limping along at the moment. “We’re just kind of meandering from crisis to crisis with a one-seat majority, with varying degrees of attendance,” one Republican lawmaker told him.

Open tabs: Trump administration prepares to unveil new Gaza leadership (FT); New RFK Jr. pick for vaccine panel: ‘I was not anti-vaccine. I am now.’ (WaPo); Another Top Aide to Ex-Mayor Eric Adams Indicted on Corruption Charges (The City); The Complicated Politics of Jasmine Crockett’s Campaign Donations (NOTUS)

From the Hill

How to Win Friends and Influence Senators: Observers were quick to frame the Senate’s vote to advance the Tim Kaine–Rand Paul war powers resolution last week as a rare GOP rebuke of Trump — and it led to the White House unleashing a fiery pressure campaign against the five Republicans who voted with Democrats.

Now, the resolution’s future is uncertain, as two of those senators demurred on whether phone calls from the administration actually changed their minds, NOTUS’ Hamed Ahmadi and Torrie Herrington report.

“My concern is about ground troops in Venezuela without congressional authorization. So they’ve been very, very responsive on that,” Sen. Josh Hawley told reporters yesterday. “I’m in listening-and-receive mode at this time.”

Meanwhile, Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, who Trump called “disasters” during his speech in Detroit yesterday, told reporters they were unmoved by the president’s over-the-phone arguments: “He really didn’t speak about the merits of the issue,” Murkowski said.

From the campaign trail

The AI midterm: “I often tell people, ‘Which of these sides would you rather have? We have $50 million and 85% of the public sentiment. They have $100 million and 15% of the public opinion.’ Which of those is most likely to win? I think our side will do that,” Brad Carson, a former House Democrat who founded a political spending group to support candidates who want to regulate AI, told NOTUS’ Samuel Larreal. (Carson counts himself on the $50 million/85% side.)

That $100 million he mentioned comes from Leading the Future, a spending group backed by Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman. They plan to elect candidates skeptical of AI regulations.

The first candidate those guys are trying to stop: Alex Bores, a member of the New York State Assembly and one of the many Democrats running to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. He’s a former Palantir engineer who helped pass an AI safety law in New York.

From the states

Unfrozen: As fast as the Trump administration tries to freeze federal funds appropriated to blue states, blue state attorneys general tend to stop them in court.

“It’s not going to work for Colorado, and I know my colleagues in other states aren’t going to take it either,” Phil Weiser, the attorney general of Colorado, told NOTUS’ Raymond Fernández.

They’d like help, though. “I would welcome Congress taking a more active role in pushing back against some of these overreaches,” Ian Liston, a deputy attorney general in Delaware, told Raymond.

NEW ON NOTUS

It’s not just Venezuela: The oil and gas industry is not sold on Trump’s domestic oil drilling push, either. His administration’s draft proposal to expand offshore drilling has been met with legal scrutiny, critical comments and budgetary concerns, NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak reports.

WHO steps in? A controversial hepatitis B study in West Africa that the CDC awarded $1.6 million has drawn scrutiny from the World Health Organization and UNICEF, NOTUS’ Margaret Manto reports. The researchers behind the study say they met with the international public-health institutes. When the study is slated to begin remains TBD.

Gorsuch watch: ICYMI, Neil Gorsuch made clear he’s the wild card when it comes to Supreme Court cases affecting LGBTQ+ people, NOTUS’ Oriana González reports. During oral arguments yesterday, he undercut conservative arguments that two laws restricting transgender athletes are not uniquely discriminatory.

More: ICE Deportation Flights Increased by 44% Since Trump Returned to Office, by Jackie Llanos

DOJ Argues Protesters Don’t Have Constitutional Right to Observe Immigration Agents, by Jackie Llanos

DOT Drops Its Fight to Cancel Infrastructure Funds for Sanctuary Jurisdictions, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

NOT US

• Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome, by Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand, Priscilla Alvarez, Jim Sciutto and Zachary Cohen for CNN
  
• The Hottest Spot for Sunday Church Is a MAGA Dive Bar, by Tara Palmeri for Vanity Fair
  
• January 6, Five Years Later, by Matthew Sitman and Sam Adler-Bell for “Know Your Enemy”

MEET US

Welcome to Meet Us, where we introduce you to a member of the NOTUS team. Adora Brown is a NOTUS reporter and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow covering education policy and Oklahoma politics.

Adora Brown Tracey Salazar

Hometown: Columbia, Maryland

Past work: General assignment reporter for Boston.com and an intern at WGBH News

Why journalism: This field is a method to express your curiosity, ask the big questions and hold people accountable.

NOTUS + AJI highlight so far: We had an amazing day touring D.C. with our chief of staff, Justin, who showed us all the important places in the city for political journalists.

Thing you can’t live without: Sweaters in every color and subscriptions to way too many streaming services.

Best advice you’ve ever been given: Fairness is illustrating both sides and weighing the facts.

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