Today’s notice: Whatever happened to “maximum pain”? Who’s on the RIF list at Interior. If you thought it was tough being a Democratic fundraiser, try being a state-level Democratic fundraiser. The National Guard could be sticking around D.C. for a while.
THE BIG ONE
Pain tolerance: Air traffic controllers are the latest group of federal employees the Trump administration could exempt from a shutdown strategy that the White House once characterized as “maximum pain,” a senior official told Jasmine (and Politico first reported).
What happened to “maximum pain”? Yes, the administration has carried on with its pre-shutdown planned RIFs. But on the whole, the strategy appears to have run into two obstacles. The first, as the NOTUS Hill team reported last week, is Democrats have proven to be far less squeamish than many expected.
The second: “Maximum pain” actually undermines a key Trump 2.0 mantra. Namely, that the president says he can do pretty much whatever he wants with the executive branch. In order for “maximum pain” to work, Donald Trump had to appear powerless in the face of a Democratic-run shutdown — I’d sure love to pay the troops, but what can I do? Go complain to the Democrats, who are in charge now.
This has not happened. Republicans and White House officials say those words, only for Trump to say some version of I alone can fix it. So: the military gets paid, ICE gets paid, FBI agents get paid. Who’s next?
For now, a White House official tells Jasmine they’ve nearly “bent” their legal boundaries to the limit on paying certain people and programs without Congress.
Which leads us to Sen. Josh Hawley telling reporters Monday he’ll introduce legislation to ensure food stamps get funded. (It’s a muddled issue, with the White House promising WIC recipients that their benefits are safe, but the Department of Agriculture warning that other food benefits are at risk.)
The problem with a minimum pain strategy? If the shutdown carries on much longer, it might run into what Democrats have identified as the major pain point Republicans don’t want to negotiate on: Obamacare open enrollment on Nov. 1.
Open tabs: GOP Senators Ready to Dump Trump Nominee With Self-Proclaimed ‘Nazi Streak’ (NOTUS); Trump Administration Can Deploy National Guard in Portland: Court (WSJ); Trump Wants to Buy Red Meat From Argentina (NYT); Laura Ingraham Joins Don Jr.’s Latest Business Venture (Daily Beast)
From the Hill
DEFCON 4? 3? “I know that’s being discussed,” Sen. Susan Collins said of nuking the filibuster to end the shutdown. “I am a strong supporter of the filibuster, but obviously I’ll look at any plan that anyone puts out in order to reopen the government.”
It’s a subtle, but major, break with GOP leadership, which has steadfastly opposed the ultimate Senate nuclear option. (“Bad idea,” John Thune told reporters as he strode out of his office yesterday.) NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer and Riley Rogerson report on how rising frustration with the shutdown and rising pressure from the MAGA right keeps this story going, despite leadership’s efforts to avoid it.
From the shutdown
Among the at least 2,000 jobs the Department of the Interior says it could end “imminently”: 80% of a Missouri environmental research center; hundreds of employees across some of the most iconic sites in the National Park System; and more than 10% of a Utah office overseeing oil and gas leasing and mineral permits.
These details were part of a court filing Monday laying out some of the employees targeted for layoffs that the White House has tied to the government shutdown (but also insists it can fire at any time, for any reason — that’s currently being litigated in court).
From the campaign trail
Democratic state parties need money badly: “It’s very difficult, and especially when we got hit hard with the post-Kamala backlash of donors canceling all of their ActBlue monthly recurring donations,” Lauren Craig, the executive director of Oklahoma’s Democratic party, told NOTUS’ Jade Lozada. “We’ve had major donor after major donor retaliate against the DNC by cutting their donations to our party.”
The DNC is increasing monthly payments to state parties by $5,000 for blue states and $10,000 for red states. That brings monthly transfers to $17,500 for blue states and $22,500 for red states, totaling a million bucks a month. That’s the largest monthly investment ever.
It’s not enough: The Kansas Democratic Party’s chair, Jeanna Repass, estimated she’d need an additional $250,000 or so every year to employ an organizer in each of the state’s four congressional districts.
NEW ON NOTUS
DHS’s shutdown ad buy: DHS has spent nearly $300,000 on YouTube ads in the U.S. so far in October and an estimated $660,000 on TV ads this month encouraging immigrants to “self-deport,” NOTUS’ Emily Kennard reports. The TV ads have run during international soccer games and on Univision programs, as well as on “Good Morning America.” Another ad on Facebook and Instagram targeted users interested in Latin music, soccer and Mexican cuisine.
“The fact that DHS is still spending money running these ads during the Trump shutdown is adding insult to injury — there is nothing mission critical about them,” Rep. Bennie Thompson said in a statement.
Who will succeed Gavin Newsom? “People in California are looking for a very dynamic leader because we are in very troubling times, and people are unsure of who that is,” Rep. Julia Brownley told NOTUS’ Samuel Larrea and Manuela Silva, summing up the uncertainty in the state over who is best suited to pick up from where Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has emerged as a key antagonist in Trump 2.0, leaves off next year.
“This may be the most wide open governor’s race we’ve seen here in close to a half century,” Daniel Schnur, a political analyst who has worked on various gubernatorial campaigns, said.
Get used to seeing troops in D.C. The general in charge of National Guard troops deployed to D.C. issued instructions to “winterize” the force and prepare for a “long term persistent presence,” according to a previously unreported email released as part of a court filing last week.
The current mission is set to expire on Nov. 30, but an extension could stretch to next summer’s “America 250” celebration. “That will be a factor in determining the future of the mission,” Brig. Gen. Leland Blanchard II wrote.
More: Comey’s Lawyers Argue Prosecutor Handling His Case Was Improperly Installed, by Jose Pagliery
Crews Knock Down White House Exterior as Trump’s Ballroom Project Begins, by Samuel Larreal
NOT US
- He accused DOGE of risking Social Security data. It cost him his career. By Meryl Kornfield and Hannah Natanson for The Washington Post
- The Trap at 26 Federal Plaza, by Stephanie Keith, Andrew Rice and Paula Aceves for New York magazine
- The Power Struggle Over Who Will Run NASA Is Turning Ugly, by Emily Glazer, Natalie Andrews and Micah Maidenberg for The Wall Street Journal
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