When the shutdown started, Republicans surmised Democrats would cave and vote to reopen the government in a matter of days.
Fifteen days into the shutdown, Democrats are more dug in than ever, and Republicans now say they expected this strategy all along.
“They have to show their base who hates Trump that they’re fighting back,” Rep. Don Bacon said. “There’s not a clear way out for them. They say they want ‘guardrails’ but no specifics.”
“They’d like to keep the focus on Republicans and on President Trump, at least for the time being. But they miscalculated, making such unreasonable, overreaching demands” for the short-term funding bill, Sen. John Cornyn told NOTUS. “I don’t know how they’re going to get out of this, but we’re not going to negotiate until we get the government back open.”
When a reporter asked Republican Sen. Katie Britt on Oct. 1 how the shutdown would end, she was firm.
“They’ll blink,” she said of Democrats.
Britt and others said they believed retiring Democrats, like Sens. Gary Peters or Jeanne Shaheen, might feel inclined to change their vote. Or that moderates like Sens. Chris Coons or vulnerable Jon Ossoff would second-guess their strategy after facing pressure from their constituents. Many believed that if just one or two more Democrats would break, others would quickly follow.
Those predictions were wrong.
Over eight failed votes on the same Republican stopgap bill, the needle hasn’t moved. Only Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, John Fetterman and independent Sen. Angus King have voted in favor. Republican Sen. Rand Paul also continues to vote no.
Despite paychecks beginning to lapse and government services dwindling, there are no signs of either side caving. Senate leaders aren’t talking to one another. Neither party has changed its negotiating positions. And the House continues to be out of session, with GOP leadership insisting they’ll only accept the bill that passed out of their chamber almost a month ago.
Some Republicans are moving the goalpost for how long they expect Democrats to hold the line.
“I thought they would give in,” Rep. Adrian Smith said on Tuesday. “But now, and hearkening back to where we were in 2013, once you get to a certain point, you kind of have to go longer. And so, I anticipate they’re going longer.”
Republicans have one theory on why things won’t budge: They believe Democrats are waiting to cave until after an Oct. 18 “No Kings” day, a series of anti-Trump gatherings around the country that are expected to draw massive crowds of protestors. Democratic leadership insists the rally has nothing to do with their political calculus.
Still, Republicans are clearly going all in on the talking point. Multiple Republican lawmakers NOTUS spoke to on Tuesday argued that it was the Democrats’ reason for holding out. Sen. Mike Rounds told NOTUS, somewhat hopefully, he thinks “once Saturday comes around … there’s a possibility for some negotiation.”
“We can solve this by opening the government and beginning all negotiations,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito told NOTUS. “Am I surprised? I guess a little surprised, but seems like there’s maybe a tipping point on Saturday with this big march. That’s what I keep hearing about, which tells you how political the whole thing is.”
Democrats insist Republicans merely underestimated their resolve. Democratic lawmakers are specifically pressing for an extension of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies in exchange for support for reopening the government.
“The fact is, they underestimated the impact that that ‘big, beautiful bill’ is going to have on millions of Americans,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin said. “I can tell you that paying health insurance premiums is something we all think about. … it makes a difference.
As to whether he thinks more Democrats will vote for the bill soon, Durbin replied: “I don’t believe that’s going to happen.”
Sen. Peter Welch, another Democrat, said his caucus’ digging in this deep was always the plan.
“I didn’t think anything changed. That was always my thought. Trump doesn’t care about the government being open. That’s always been the case. We care about health care. We’re doing everything we can. … I don’t see that it’s changed.”
It does appear, however, that Republicans are open to changing at least one piece of their proposed stopgap funding bill: the end date. Currently, their bill only funds the government until Nov. 21. As the shutdown drags on, that date may end up being too close for comfort for many lawmakers.
“That’s a point of discussion,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on moving the date. “I think we’re probably going to need more time to get appropriations going.”
Thune himself hasn’t appeared overwhelmingly optimistic that Democrats are ready to shift their standing any time soon. But after all, both he and Speaker Mike Johnson have sworn their own strategy won’t change.
Thune added: “Every day that we lose here, every day they keep the government shut down, is a day we don’t spend time actually doing a regular appropriations process.”
Republicans are confident that no matter how long the shutdown drags on, they will come out as the political winners.
“Democrats screwed themselves. If they keep the shutdown going, voters will blame them even more. If they cave, their base will eat them alive. Either way, they’re about to get fucked,” said a Senate Republican aide.