Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have received their last paychecks for the foreseeable future. “Substantial” federal layoffs started last week — and President Donald Trump has withdrawn funding from a slew of projects in Democratic states. The mood among congressional lawmakers is going from testy to sour.
Welcome to week three of the government shutdown.
“Now that we’re getting to where people are going to start missing paychecks, this gets real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned on Friday.
The House has been on recess for nearly a month. But last week, tempers boiled over in both chambers.
The usually collegial Senate has furthered its tit-for-tat shutdown blame game. Typically uneventful pro forma sessions became shouting matches. A public spat between House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries last week was on open display — as was another between Johnson and Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego.
Gallego said that cantankerous squabble was “cordial” by his standards. But in describing Johnson, he said “he’s a coward and he’s a liar” and that “this guy just lies, lies, lies, and everyone just kind of lets it go … I’m not gonna take that shit.”
With paychecks officially coming up short, things could quickly get worse. Military pay was set to lapse on Tuesday, but Trump unilaterally authorized the Pentagon to pay troops, eliminating one of the most often-invoked motivators for ending the shutdown.
As Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito put it: “When folks miss a paycheck, the intensity will go up. There’s no doubt.”
Republican lawmakers have dubbed the lapse in government funding as the “Schumer shutdown,” and are openly and specifically bashing the Democratic minority leader.
“Just do the right thing, Chuck Schumer,” Sen. Kevin Cramer told NOTUS, “And stop performing for [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez]. It’s ridiculous.”
Schumer himself has maintained Democrats are denying the votes to reopen the government because they want assurances that the soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies will be extended. And he’s not minced words about his grievances against Republicans, either, who he accused of being agnostic in the face of health care premiums rising.
“What makes me think they’ll change their mind?” Schumer told reporters. “The American people want it. They’re seeing how devastating this is, and they’re putting a lot of pressure on their Republican congressmen and senators to do this.”
Republican leadership has consistently said the opposite, insisting they will not negotiate while the government is shutdown, and cannot guarantee Schumer the votes on extending ACA subsidies.
There is reason to believe, however, that paycheck pressures this week might just push some lawmakers to reconsider their positions. That could start with Democrats who have nothing left to lose, like retiring Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, Dick Durbin, and Gary Peters. Or those with everything on the line, like Sen. Jon Ossoff, the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection next year.
There are also moderates, like Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, who come from purple states. All but three members of the Senate Democratic Caucus have been steadfast “no” votes thus far, but Shaheen was reportedly at the center of quiet backchannel negotiations already last week.
That means only five more Democrats would need to vote for the GOP-led continuing resolution for it to become law. The bill has failed on the floor seven times already, and Thune has already teed up another vote on the bill for next week.
Besides paychecks, the third week of a government shutdown will start to create more salient effects that voters are more likely to notice. During the last shutdown, an uptick in air traffic controllers calling out sick sparked concerns about an air disaster and put pressure on lawmakers to negotiate in earnest. That’s already started at airports around the country.
What’s more, money for supplemental nutrition for women, infants, and children (WIC) is running out fast. Sen. Mike Rounds told reporters last week he hopes that, if nothing else, will drive Democrats to the table. The Department of Agriculture, which runs WIC, told congressional staff last week that WIC was fully funded through the month with tariff revenue.
Still, lawmakers aren’t placing bets that things will shake out all that soon, even as the political calculus changes. Many Republicans themselves anticipated that a number of Democrats would have caved in the first week of the shutdown, which quite obviously did not happen.
“I hope,” Sen. Josh Hawley said on prospects for the shutdown ending soon. “I’m surprised. Frankly, I didn’t think they’d shut down the government, so I’ve been wrong, like, every step of the way.”
And yet, he added before leaving town on Thursday: “Here we are … Day, whatever, eight, nine.”