Today’s notice: Thomas Massie is in trouble. Democrats who didn’t get the party nod say they’re doing just fine. An exclusive preview of what Oversight in a Democratic House could look like. How Mike Johnson spent recess. Capitol Gains does Vermont. The decline of Congress’ rules. And: Will the real MAHA party please stand up?

THE LATEST

Critical: Massie. This week, Republican state lawmakers in Indiana who crossed Donald Trump on redistricting were sent packing by primary voters. Just across the state’s border with Kentucky, it’s looking like they might send home the Republican who most vocally crossed Trump on the Epstein files, too. NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports on the vibes in Rep. Thomas Massie’s district, where an expensive primary against the iconoclastic incumbent ends in 11 days.

MAGA is gaining ground. “I think that the people who watch TV are seeing the ads, seeing the money spent, and they’re buying into it,” Republican state Rep. Steve Doan, a Massie supporter, said. He told Alex he thinks Massie will still win, but the race has “narrowed” palpably.

Doan told Alex about a recent conversation with one voter who asked whether Massie was actually having a three-way affair with Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as was falsely suggested in a recent satirical ad created using AI.

Where things stand: After conversations with Massie backers, supporters of MAGA-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein and neutral Republicans in the district, Alex reports that it appears Massie still has a small edge. But Gallrein backers are feeling momentum and Massie’s are hunkering down.

“It’s going to be the closest race that Thomas has faced,” Rich Hidy, the chair of the Campbell County Republican Party who’s unaligned in the primary, told Alex.

Open tabs: Federal Trade Court Blocks Trump’s Backup Tariff Plan (NOTUS); U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months (WaPo); Federal and State Officials Discuss Closing Florida’s ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ (NYT); How the Commanders returned to D.C.: The wild, unlikely saga of a years-long journey home (The Athletic)

From the White House

“Love tap” is what Trump called fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian soil in an interview with ABC News yesterday, after Iran fired at American ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The president insists the ceasefire is still in place, despite the sustained hostilities. “They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” he said during a visit with construction workers on the National Mall last night. “They trifled. I call that a trifle.”

What’s next: More of the same? A deal with Iran “might not happen, but it could happen any day,” Trump said.

From the campaign trail

Silver linings? “It’s almost a badge of honor that D.C. has let us know who their candidate is, who they believe will bend the knee to party leadership and to corporate interests,” Randy Villegas, one of the Democratic House primary candidates not endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week, told NOTUS’ Christa Dutton. Candidates like him hope this is the year that insisting I’m actually really glad the party didn’t back me is a winning message.

They may not be wrong. “People make that claim in other cycles, but I think it has a better chance of working this time than other times,” Democratic pollster Adam Carlson said. For its part, a source familiar with the DCCC’s reasoning said the organization picked the candidates it thought could win.

Corruption is emerging as a general election topic. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is out with a new video claiming epic levels of fiscal responsibility, but not everyone’s buying it.

Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, took aim at Donald Trump Jr.’s and Eric Trump’s ties to the defense industry and called for the Pentagon inspector general to probe the first family, per a new letter obtained exclusively by NOTUS’ Joe Gould.

The claim: Since the start of the president’s second term, his adult kids “have started conspicuously involving themselves in a variety of defense-related contracting firms,” Garcia wrote. The lawmaker cited a new contract awarded to drone company Powerus after both sons invested in the firm and a $24 million award to Foundation Future Industries, where Eric Trump — a hospitality-industry executive — serves as chief strategy adviser.

What comes next: It all dovetails with how Democrats, heading into the midterms, are painting the president as corrupt and self-interested, NOTUS’ Igor Bobic reports. But Garcia’s letter also serves as a promise of the aggressive oversight Democrats could pursue if voters give them the House majority. They’re also eyeing an investigation into potential “pay-for-play dealings” related to the president’s pardons, NOTUS’ Torrie Herrington reports.

Meanwhile: Republicans stack cash for the general. Speaker Mike Johnson wraps up a fundraising blitz in Texas today, NOTUS’ Kadia Goba reports. He’s been raising money with a number of incumbents and new candidates he hopes to add to the state’s congressional delegation.

THE BIG ONE

MAHA and the Democrats, an unexplored B-plot of 2026: For the most part, the party leaves the political movement championed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. alone. But should it? The focus on improving health care and regulating corporate power is a Venn diagram waiting for some Democratic shading, Rep. Chellie Pingree told NOTUS’ Paige Winfield Cunningham. She’s among a few in her party who say Democrats should see recent disillusionment among the Make America Healthy Again set with Trump and the GOP as an opportunity.

It’s not that simple, of course. Democrats do not like or want to stand with RFK Jr. after 2024. Vaccine skepticism — the best-known aspect of MAHA — is anathema to most of them, too.

MAHA isn’t too thrilled with Democrats, either. Moms Across America founder and MAHA leader Zen Honeycutt has met with people like Pingree, but … “I would like to see Democrats set aside their ire of Kennedy,” she told Paige.

Why this is not a crazy idea: A recent KFF poll found voters who identify as MAHA supporters were more likely to say lowering health care costs was their top concern — more than improving food safety or any other issue. The Democratic midterm ad practically writes itself.

Why it is crazy: The vaccine thing! And an accepted political reality: Whether they planned to or not, MAHA leaders run a branch of the GOP now. At least that’s how Democrats see it. “I think they’re afraid to engage with it and skeptical they can actually win over these voters,” Ayodele Okeowo, a former Biden administration official who now does strategy for several MAHA-affiliated groups, told Paige.

ON NOTUS PODCAST

From your favorite podcast app: Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the DCCC, says Democrats will respond to Republican efforts to “rig the system” through mid-decade redistricting. “We are going to fight back in the courts. We’re obviously fighting back in statehouses, and we absolutely are fighting back on the ground, and people are fighting back with their vote,” DelBene told NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz on today’s episode of On NOTUS. DelBene also talked about the party’s midterm strategy and top priorities if they win the majority in the House.

NEW ON NOTUS

The House’s new normal is really new. Think about this: From 1995 until early 2023, only eight rules votes got rejected, including 20 straight years without one failing, NOTUS’ Paul Kane writes. Over the same period, only three discharge petitions succeeded. But in the last three years, House leaders have lost the rules vote 11 times and seven discharge petitions have forced votes against leadership’s wishes.

Leaders seem to no longer have the tools to enforce discipline, Paul writes, which has made the present Congress quite strange. And, if anything, Congress is likely to get weirder over the next few years — the redistricting-palooza puts more emphasis on extremists and less on the kind of traditional legislator who relied on long-held norms to make tough compromises happen.

Vermont rich: Members of the state’s congressional delegation are significantly more wealthy than the average Vermonter, NOTUS’ Torrie Herrington and Taylor Giorno report. That does not make it all that different from most state delegations, but one thing does: Democratic Sens. Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch, as well as the lone House member, Democrat Becca Balint, do not trade individual stocks. (Welch used to when he had Balint’s job, but stopped.)

The analysis is the latest in NOTUS’ Capitol Gains project examining congressional wealth.

More: Tennessee Democrats Warn Their State’s Redistricting Is Just the Start, by Manuela Silva

NOT US

• The Congresswomen’s Pact, by Noor Ibrahim for Marie Claire
  
• How the Trump Administration Became an Activist Investor, by Maggie Severns, Gavin Bade, Josh Dawsey and Meridith McGraw for The Wall Street Journal
  
• The Billionaires Behind the Most Expensive Midterm Elections in History, by Amanda L. Gordon, Biz Carson and Bill Allison for Bloomberg

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