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Deal or No Deal?

President Donald Trump walks from Marine One to board Air Force One.

Alex Brandon/AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Today’s notice: Mixed messages on Iran. A Texas primary preview. Will another Democrat be able to follow in Jared Golden’s footsteps? Abdul El-Sayed gets a big endorsement. Tom Kean is still trading stocks. Meta vs. MAHA. Plus: Republicans have an age problem, too.

THE LATEST

Mixed messages about the status of peace talks. Negotiators from Iran arrived in Qatar over the weekend in the hopes of finally ironing out a final peace agreement, but it’s not exactly clear where things stand. President Donald Trump, in characteristic fashion, said yesterday that any deal would be “great and meaningful” or “there will be no deal.”

There’s a whole lot of daylight between those two options. And the president has openly signaled for months that a deal is close, only to walk back that sentiment repeatedly.

Trending

What’s new: The president added another demand, calling for any deal to require “at a minimum” that additional countries sign onto the Abraham Accords, a set of agreements Trump brokered at the end of his first term to normalize relationships between Israel and several other countries in the Middle East. Trump called on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to join the accords in a lengthy post to Truth Social on Monday.

While Iranian officials agreed some progress has been made on a “large portion of the issues under discussion,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai pushed back on claims that a deal is imminent. The U.S. struck a number of military sites inside Iran and boats laying mines yesterday — though U.S. officials continued to insist that they were “using restraint during the ongoing cease-fire.”

Some tensions are easing inside Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered internet access to be restored to its pre-January levels after a monthslong blackout forced Iranians to rely on state-controlled access. The semi-official outlet ISNA reported that the order was expected to go into effect today.

Open tabs: As A.I. Fever Rises in Silicon Valley, Pope Leo Has a Few Words (NYT); Trump to visit Walter Reed for the third checkup of his second term (NBC); DOJ says it scrubbed news releases about Jan. 6 criminal cases from its website (CBS); Trump Tower in Georgia to be built on land part-owned by son of US sanctions-hit leader (The Guardian)

From Texas

Primary preview: Anticlimactic. The biggest race in Texas might be the easiest to predict: State Attorney General Ken Paxton has held a consistent lead in public polls of the Republican Senate primary runoff, even before Trump endorsed him. Sen. John Cornyn is now officially an underdog to keep the seat he’s held since 2002.

Other races to watch: Texas AG. A poll from late April showed Rep. Chip Roy struggling against state Rep. Mayes Middleton in the Republican primary runoff to replace Paxton as attorney general.

TX-35. The DCCC is spending money to stop Maureen Galindo, a Democratic runoff candidate in the 35th Congressional District whom party leadership has accused of making antisemitic statements. Democratic insiders also say she has benefited from astroturf Republican backing. The recently redrawn district is rated Likely Republican by several independent analysts, but Democrats see it as possibly in play if November is a true Blue Wave.

From the campaign trail

Can a Democrat win — again — in Rep. Jared Golden’s Trump-loving district? NOTUS’ Torrie Herrington spoke with experts in Maine politics and several of the candidates vying to replace the retiring moderate, who has long contended that his high-profile breaks with the rest of his Democratic colleagues were necessary to hold the seat and properly represent the more conservative 2nd District.

But 2026 looks a lot like the 2018 race that allowed Golden to flip the district, Torrie writes. That’s giving Democrats hope that a more progressive candidate can win.

Another notch in the belt for a Bernie Sanders-backed candidate. In a race sometimes viewed as a referendum on the future of the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party endorsed progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed for Senate, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports. El-Sayed will face state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the primary on Aug. 4.

Thomas Massie is keeping his options open. After losing his Republican primary to a Trump-backed challenger last week, the Kentucky congressman filed to run for his current House district in 2028. Massie said the move allows him to continue raising money and that he has not “made a final decision about which office to seek” in the next election cycle.

Massie danced delicately around questions about a potential presidential bid during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, saying, “I will not rule out anything, and right now, I’m not going to rule in anything.”

From the Hill

MIA congressman is still trading stocks. Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s exact whereabouts remain unknown since he went missing from Congress since early March because of an undisclosed “personal medical issue.” But as NOTUS’ Dave Levinthal flags, the New Jersey Republican emerged long enough Friday to electronically sign and certify a congressional disclosure document indicating he made several personal stock trades during mid- to late April.

This is the second time in two months that Kean has signed such a stock disclosure, despite missing more than 90 House roll call votes.

THE BIG ONE

Breaking: More old politicians discovered. Democrats have been tied up in knots trying to figure out what to do with their many aging legislators who cling to power despite the obvious risks. Republicans have so far gleefully watched from the sidelines, but NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer, Paul Kane and Oriana González report that the GOP has its own old-legislator problem to deal with.

“Yeah, it’s a problem,” Rep. Andy Harris, 69, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told NOTUS. “We deal with it better than the Democrats, but not perfectly.” He’s pushing for more stringent internal GOP conference term limits to prevent younger members from being boxed out of prime committee leadership assignments. (Democrats have no such term limits and their younger members have been boxed out for decades, in some cases.)

In the Senate, Republicans are the older party. Three of the four oldest senators are Republicans and so are 21 of the 37 senators who are 70 or older.

“They have appreciated the steady hand that I’ve had over the time that I’ve been in there,” Sen. Jim Risch said of his overwhelming victory in Idaho’s Republican Senate primary last week. If reelected in November, he’ll be 89 when his next term ends.

What to know: Republicans feel much better about how they are dealing with age in their conferences vs. Democrats, the team reports. But the issue is getting bigger, and plenty of voices inside the GOP are warning that leaders are not ready for the day when they’re the ones with the aged membership and Democrats aren’t.

NEW ON NOTUS

Meta vs MAHA: The screentime wars. A lawyer defending Meta in a child protection practices case, Kevin Huff, took a swing at Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last week. He argued that a recent surgeon general report on the dangers of screen time lacked “trustworthiness” due to Kennedy’s involvement, NOTUS’ Margaret Manto reports. Huff urged the court to make the report inadmissible because of Kennedy’s past history of “advancing claims that are contrary to science.”

Meta and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, have aggressively courted Trump’s favor during the president’s second administration, but this swipe is a callback to the tension between the social media giant and Trump during his first term.

More: Sherrill Blocked From ICE Facility as Detainees Enter Day 4 of Hunger Strike, by Jenna Monnin

NOT US

WEEK AHEAD

Today

Texas primary runoff Election Day.

South Carolina Republican gubernatorial debate.

Colorado Republican gubernatorial debate.

Trump heads to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for a medical and dental checkup.

Wednesday

Mike Pence delivers the keynote address at the 2026 Mackinac Policy Conference in Michigan.

Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling is set to headline the two-day US AI Congress forum.

Thursday

Michigan Democratic Senate debate.

Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary debate.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is among the top Trump admin officials speaking at the Reagan Economic Forum in California.

Friday

Former AG Pam Bondi is set to give her deposition in the House Oversight Committee’s Epstein probe.


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