Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from Maine, has developed a reputation for voting against the Democratic Party in major moments — he was the only Democrat last month to vote against curbing President Donald Trump’s war powers, for example, and broke ranks with his party on pandemic relief and whether to sustain a government shutdown last year.

Golden, who is retiring, said in a letter announcing his decision to step aside that these kinds of votes are key to winning and representing his Trump-loving district.

But there are at least four people who disagree with Golden’s assessment of the electorate — and they’re running in the Democratic primary to replace him.

Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap initially launched a primary challenge against Golden. But he now faces former congressional aide Jordan Wood, state Sen. Joe Baldacci and social worker Paige Loud in a crowded race to succeed the moderate Democrat who flipped the seat in 2018. All are running to the left of Golden.

Maine’s 2nd District is more conservative than the average Democratic-held seat. Golden won his last election by less than a percentage point in 2024, and the district has voted for Trump each time he has run.

But voters have notably soured on several of Trump’s policies, including a costly war with Iran that has sent fuel prices skyrocketing. The district is the second-most rural in the country, and is grappling with issues that the Trump administration has seemingly exacerbated. Medicare cuts that were passed in last year’s reconciliation bill remain a problem in this district, putting rural health care providers at risk of closure.

Amy Fried, a professor emerita of political science at the University of Maine, told NOTUS that if these results are attributed to the Republican Party, then former Maine Gov. Paul LePage — who is running for his party’s nomination unopposed — will have a much more difficult path to victory come November.This cycle is actually quite similar to the 2018 election that saw Golden flip the seat — at a time when he was much more progressive than he is now, Fried said.

That “was just a really bad election for Trump and Republicans,” Fried said. “There was a big pushback in the midterm to Trump and Bruce Poliquin, the incumbent.”

Jim Melcher, professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, said that in this Democratic primary, voters are looking for someone who will stand up to Trump — more than Golden has.

“Certainly Jared Golden could be very critical of Donald Trump on some issues, but I think most Maine Democrats don’t want that Jared Golden style of approach, and I think this is a year where people are ready for change, are ready for somebody who may seem to be less Washington establishment,” Melcher said.

He said all four candidates are running campaigns to the left of Golden, with Loud being the most progressive of the bunch. As a social worker, she’s focused her campaign message on expanding health care access, as well as housing and affordability issues. Baldacci calls himself a moderate, and has emphasized his voting record in support of abortion rights. Dunlap and Wood fall somewhere in the middle, and both described their campaigns as “authentic” to themselves.

Dunlap has garnered a few progressive endorsements, including from Our Revolution and California Rep. Ro Khanna. His campaign has also focused on universal health care and addressing affordability issues in the district.

Because of Wood’s focus on gun safety and gun violence prevention, he has earned an endorsement from Brady PAC, a political action committee aimed at reducing gun violence.

Golden, meanwhile, said he doesn’t plan to put his thumb on the primary’s scale.

“I don’t have much to say about that,” he said when asked about the candidates. “I think what I would tell you is that the people in Maine are smart enough to figure it out for themselves, and I’m not getting involved in other people’s races.”

“A quick study of the district tells you everything you need to know about the voting trend over the last decade or more,” Golden added.

There has been a dearth of reliable polling on where the race stands. A survey conducted this month by the Pan Atlantic Research Survey asked about only three of the four candidates, which the firm attributed to an editorial error.

“I think Baldacci is showing strength,” Fried said. “But I think Dunlap has a little broader portfolio and a little broader ability to appeal to people through the district.”

Baldacci won the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which drew criticism from other candidates for what they called the DCCC’s interference in the primary. The endorsement and several others, which are not necessarily atypical, have roiled the party this cycle as Democrats struggle with questions about the party’s future direction.

Baldacci and Dunlap, seen as the race’s front-runners, have been the target of the National Republican Campaign Committee, which called both candidates “out of touch.”

“Radical Democrat Matt Dunlap has sold his soul to the far left,” NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement. “Baldacci’s candidacy is dead on arrival,” she said in another.

Both candidates said they are letting the comments roll off their back.

“I’ll take that criticism with a grain of salt,” Baldacci said.

Dunlap said, “If I was Republican, they’d say I’d be an ideal fit for the district.”