Trump and Iran ‘Might Get Worse Before It Gets Better’

The U.S. and Iran appear to be slowly restoring their truce after a week of attacks by both sides — though the chance of future escalations remains high.

Qatar, the tiny American ally in the Persian Gulf, is leading mediations over the root of the latest exchange of fire: the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants significant influence over the flow of ships through the strategic waterway — which it sees as essential leverage — but the U.S. is staunchly opposed to parts of Iran’s vision, like charging fees for traveling vessels.

Iran froze traffic through Hormuz after President Donald Trump launched a war against it in February, and the U.S. has since attempted with limited success to restore the flow of ships, most of which contain supplies of oil and gas that are crucial for the global economy. A settlement to reopen the strait was intended to be only one element of the 60-day memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington signed last month to initiate a ceasefire. Now, the difficulty of agreeing just about Hormuz reflects the shrinking chance of a larger and longer-lasting U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. The best hope, officials and analysts say, is essentially developing a bandage to avoid another flare-up.

“Restarting a stupid war is in no one’s interest,” said Nate Swanson, an Atlantic Council analyst and former State Department official who worked on Iran under Presidents Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Still, “the status quo is too volatile.”

Swanson expects Qatar and others involved in diplomacy to refocus on step-by-step negotiations aimed at finding a new understanding on Hormuz. Iran has sought to ensure that ships obtain its permission before traversing the strait, while also developing a structure to charge fees for transit that will take effect later this year. The latter is unpalatable to the U.S. and to other world powers, including Arab states, China and European nations, Swanson said, but “permission is more doable.”

Trump this week ordered two rounds of strikes in Iran, and withdrew a license for the country to sell oil, after Iran shot at commercial vessels. He suggested there is no hope for a ceasefire. The U.S. became “more careful” as the week wore on, however, a Middle Eastern diplomat familiar with efforts to manage tensions told NOTUS. The diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive government assessments, pointed to the lack of any new strikes within Iran by Israel, saying Washington has not allowed Tel Aviv to attack. A senior Iranian official suggested Friday that Israel could face retaliation if the U.S. attacks Iran again.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to assault Iran and has acted as America’s partner in the campaign, is far more skeptical of attempts at mediation, and has himself threatened the memorandum by defying Iran’s demands to end Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, targeting the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah and driving significant suffering in the country. And the diplomat argued that in addition to the U.S. strikes, Iran too was violating the terms of the truce.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank, argued the U.S. and Iran can avoid a total collapse of their memorandum by tacitly agreeing to “defer the sovereignty dispute” over Hormuz. Ships seeking passage could be required to notify Iran as well as other countries bordering the strait, which could acknowledge Tehran’s role without representing a full concession to its preferences by the U.S. and its allies, Parsi wrote on Substack.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s often-shifting positions continue to risk a resumption of war, even if it is unintended. Parsi wrote that the U.S. appeared to want to demonstrate “escalation dominance” over Iran, and Trump has consistently suggested he sees military pressure as his most effective tool. On Friday morning, the president issued a seemingly contradictory depiction of the U.S.-Iran dynamic — referencing both conflict and diplomacy — on his Truth Social platform.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks.’ We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” Trump wrote.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit focused on conflict prevention, described the trend as “the same escalatory dynamic aimed at forcing capitulation” from Iran, which has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to hold firm in the face of U.S. demands.

“It’s not going to work,” Vaez said of counting primarily on more violence to bring a different outcome.

On Friday, observers of the conflict said they were optimistic that a new accord would emerge, while downplaying the potential for any progress in addressing the larger issues driving U.S.-Iran tensions.

“It might get worse before it gets better, but I don’t see a real risk of [escalation] going off the rails,” Vaez said. But asked about general talks based on the memorandum, which officials like Vice President JD Vance have suggested could reshape the entire region, he told NOTUS: “The chance was never high, and the odds are even lower now.”