Today’s notice: Blaming Canada. An exclusive look at a new report on voters known as “Trump Regretters.” The Pentagon’s money problems. A first look at ads attacking Medicare for All. Kalshi vs. regulators. Reality vs USPS ballot rules. And: A look at opportunity zones, eight years later.
THE LATEST
Drinking the anti-Canadian Club? The White House’s fight with America’s northern neighbor continues, trapping border-state Republicans in a conundrum: Do they join up with Donald Trump’s rhetorical crusade and set sail across Lake America looking for a fight? Or do they try to keep up a relationship with a longtime economic partner that is often crucial to a significant number of their constituents?
“I want to get the train back on the tracks. And I think we can do that,” Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Michigan) told NOTUS’ Manuela Silva this week — not exactly chastising Trump but not exactly praising him, either.
Trending
Another tough one for Republicans! Cross Trump and there could be political trouble from MAGA; join in the attacks on Canada and there could be political problems at home. “I’m not a big fan of the current situation because Indiana’s a big trading partner with Canada, so I prefer the issue go away,” Republican Rep. Mark Messmer said.
There were some Republicans eager to sign on to Trump’s approach to Canada: “I would hope NOTUS is going to say, ‘Thank you, President Trump, for finally leveling the playing field, taking care of our farmers,’” said Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the House Republican Conference chair.
“I stay out of all the back-and-forth,” Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New York) said. She had plenty of complaints about Canadian trade practices — “so much dumping of powdered milks” — but she stressed that her strong relationships with Canadian lawmakers continue, and urged people not to get too anxious.
“Somehow, I think this shall pass,” she said. Barrett, McClain and Tenney, by the way, were at the Rose Garden dinner with Trump last night.
Could that anxiety create more “Trump Regretters” in the swing seats? Navigator Research, the Democratic-leaning messaging firm, is out with a big new report on this set of potential 2026 voters, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports. Using survey and focus-group findings, the firm digs in on Trump 2024 supporters who have hung up their red hats. “One-in-five 2024 Trump voters now regret their vote, especially younger Americans, Black and Latino Americans, independents or non-MAGA Republicans, and moms,” the report finds. “Rising costs and expensive wars among top reasons why Trump voters now regret their vote.”
More on NOTUS: ‘Darn Unusual’ DOJ Filing Has the Trump Administration on Different Path | Strategists Say Battleground Democrats Won’t Be Able to Easily Shake ‘Woke 1.0’ | Federal Judge Blocks Trump’s Latest Effort to Restrict Birthright Citizenship
From the Pentagon
Cash crunch: The stopgap funding bill the House passed to keep the government open through the midterms does not provide the tens of billions of dollars the Pentagon says it needs to cover Iran operations, replenish munitions and sustain forces whose deployments have been extended. NOTUS’ Joe Gould and Avani Kalra report on how some observers see the budget moving forward: There’s a narrow window (like three weeks) for another reconciliation bill to be passed by the Republicans in both chambers. Barring that, the DOD is going to have to figure out how to stretch pennies until after the election.
From the campaign trail
First on NOTUS: Republicans run against “Medicare for All.” A new six-figure ad buy is launching today in D.C. from Seniors Matter for America, a group connected to Trump 1.0 press secretary Sean Spicer. The ads take aim at Democratic candidates over the signature health care proposal backed by progressives, which the group calls “pushing everyone into one government system run by federal bureaucrats.” What you’ll be hearing: “Seniors will show up in November, and the choice couldn’t be more clear: The Republicans fighting for their benefits or the Democrats destroying them?”
More: FEC to Klobuchar: Explain Your $42,000 ‘Asset Transfer’ Between Campaigns | Elon Musk’s Super PAC Dumped $800K Into Battleground Races in August
From K Street
More like K-alshi Street: The prediction market company now has over two-dozen federal lobbyists working on its behalf, including some heavy hitters from across the political spectrum — former Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is one, veteran Republican cloakroom staffer Tony Hanagan is another. As NOTUS’ Mark Alfred reports, this army of influence is up against a growing tide of pro-regulation electeds — and so far, the potential regulations are languishing.
More: New Jersey Takes Its Fight Against Kalshi to the Supreme Court
From the Hill
First on NOTUS: Taking on detention centers. Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) is introducing legislation that would put new requirements on DHS before it can establish new detention facilities, just weeks after the department scrapped a plan to convert a warehouse in her district to hold immigrants. Some of the requirements the legislation would impose: consulting with local officials, holding public meetings and analyzing potential resource strain.
More: Russia Sanctions Bill Remains Stalled Despite Pressure From Zelenskyy’s Top Envoy
From the White House
Special guest: The White House announced Vice President JD Vance will brief reporters today, filling the void as temporary press secretary for the day. It will be the first briefing since July 23.
Ring ring: Trump debuted a new phone on the Resolute Desk, trimmed in gold, of course. The White House didn’t respond to questions about where it came from or who designed the new device. And neither did Cisco, whose name adorns the top. Don’t confuse the new desk phone with the other gold Trump Phone, which didn’t work out so well.
More: Trump Says White House Helipad Is Complete | Trump Is Planning a Midterm Travel Blitz to Alaska and Other Battlegrounds
THE BIG ONE
One part of the new USPS mail-ballot rule is so time consuming that it’s all but impossible, election officials and experts say. NOTUS’ Eric Katz and Adora Brown report on the various timelines local officials have said it would take to send outgoing mail ballots as required under the new rules — 66,000 hours, or more than seven years, of staff time in Colorado; between 25,000 and 50,000 hours in Oregon.
“It would take about 4.9 years of continuous scanning to verify the whole mailing,” said Tammy Patrick, a former federal compliance officer for elections in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Inside the USPS, some are not feeling much more confident. While the USPS requirements mark a completely new procedure for the agency, postmasters who run the facilities that will receive ballots have yet to be given any guidance for carrying them out, a senior Postal Service source told NOTUS.
A federal court has temporarily blocked the new rules and a number of states continue to push back against them.
NOTUS PERSPECTIVES
The hundreds of millions of books the late, great Dolly Parton gave to kids wasn’t just an impressive act of charity, writes NOTUS’ Kainaz Amaria. It created a common reading list in a society that desperately needs one.
NOTUS METRO
Sign up for our local newsletter, written by Martin Austermuhle and Zara Norman.
Local news: Plane Carrying DHS Secretary Makes Emergency Landing at DCA, by Kendall Staton
Talk to Tom: Where to Go for a Celebratory Dinner, by Tom Sietsema
NEW ON NOTUS
Missed opportunity? “This is the first I’ve heard about this program,” a rural county treasurer in Illinois told NOTUS’ Jade Lozada about opportunity zones. It’s been eight years since the federal government began a tax-incentive program, dubbed “opportunity zones,” aimed at attracting economic development in low-income areas across the country. As the Treasury Department fields nominations for a second round of the program, Jade looks at where it’s worked (hint: bigger cities) and it hasn’t (rural areas).
More: DOJ Says States That Fail to Report Undocumented Immigrants Could Lose Federal Funding
NOT US
- One Great Chart: The U.S. Economy 🤝 AI, by Nicholas G. Miller and Justin Lahart for The Wall Street Journal
- Mamma mia! How a panic over pasta prices prompted a Trump tariff retreat. By Ari Hawkins and Oliver Ward for Politico
- The War for the Rio Grande, by Jack Herrera for Texas Monthly
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton. Photo by Gene J. Puskar/AP.
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