Democrats Brace For Their Gnarliest Presidential Primary in Decades

The 2028 Democratic presidential primary is already a mess, months before the race actually starts.

Consider that “everyone and their mother” could run, per 2024 alum Quentin Fulks, leading to a field of more than 20 candidates. And that nobody knows what to make of Kamala Harris, including Kamala Harris.

Adding to the confusion: The Democratic National Committee is at a crossroads. At least three potential candidates have already talked about skipping the official DNC debates, according to advisers, potentially opening the process to a surge of unofficial debates hosted by every lefty media organization or interest group imaginable.

There’s already a mad dash for qualified campaign staff. And on top of everything else, the voters are really, really pissed off.

Or as Rebecca Pearcey, political director for Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign, put it: “If we thought 2020 was a clusterfuck, this is going to put that to shame.”

Democrats are bracing for what they expect will be the most tumultuous presidential primary of their lifetimes. They hope the process will end with a nominee capable of winning the White House in 2028 but fear it could traumatize the party along the way.

Interviews with more than three dozen Democratic elected officials, donors and strategists found a party on edge: They expect a large field without a clear frontrunner. They worry about a weakened DNC and its ability to manage an unruly early-state calendar and an already controversial debate process. They feel the anger coursing through their base, demanding generational change and showing a growing hostility to Israel. They nervously watch social media influencers — newly anointed gatekeepers who went to war over the Texas and California primaries and tested ethical boundaries. And there’s even some relief that a party largely defined only by its opposition to President Donald Trump may finally pick a vision for moving forward.

Rob Flaherty, who led Harris’ digital program in 2024, called the primary “a shit-show at the fuck factory.”

“It is as wide open as anything I can remember,” said Jim Messina, who managed President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign in 2012. He said he’s personally spoken with more than 20 Democrats considering a presidential run, though he declined to name names.

But who is weighing a run is not a secret. Everybody’s not-so-shortlist includes five governors building national profiles: Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gavin Newsom of California, Wes Moore of Maryland, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Six senators with money in the bank are frequently name-checked: Cory Booker of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, and Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Progressives have their eye on Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ro Khanna of California.

Pete Buttigieg, the former Biden administration official who rocketed to political fame in 2020, is making moves. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel isn’t playing coy. Some are still holding out hope that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will move off her insistence that she wants nothing to do with it.

Pete Buttigieg has been engaging with voters around the country, including at a rally in Indianapolis. Michael Conroy/AP

There will probably be a hodgepodge of lesser-known candidates, just like at the start of the 2020 campaign. Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. Celebrities, maybe? Mark Cuban thinks Jon Stewart should run. And the ever-elusive “dark horse” candidate, the person no one expects and rockets into the presidential stratosphere, hangs in the Democratic ether. (Just don’t ask anyone to guess who it might be.)

And then there’s Harris. Some Democrats, including those working for potential 2028 foes, consider the former vice president the primary’s front-runner — at least at the start, at least if she decides to run. Whether she does is one of the party’s biggest parlor games.

Some close to Harris say the fact that the potential field is so divided and only a few potential candidates have actually been tested on a national stage is part of the reason she’s still weighing her options. She and her small team are keeping close tabs on what the possible ’28ers are up to.

“Kamala and her allies have been looking at the press around 2028 and don’t believe anybody can clear the field,” said one source familiar with the former vice president.

The source, who saw Harris recently, said they even detected a vibe shift from her and her husband, Doug Emhoff. Some of her mojo has returned, they said, after a bruising 2024 and then a successful book tour in 2025.

It’s a “slow change in tune,” they said of the former second couple. Harris, they added, believes “more today than yesterday” that running is a possibility.

If Kamala Harris runs, she’d start the race with the most support because of high name recognition, polls indicate. Jeff Roberson/AP

Two Democratic sources who spoke with NOTUS said Harris has suggested to allies that anybody running would have to go through her. There are a few ways of reading that: One source said they interpreted it as Harris “gets the option,” and if she sits the race out, those running would need the support of her base.

As Harris weighs her options, the not-so-invisible primary for the rest of the field is well underway. It’s cloaked in book tours, late-night show interviews, convenient early-state stopovers and splashy national profiles. They’re fundraising and campaigning for downballot candidates.

“This is the ‘goodwill ambassador tour’ phase,” said a Democratic donor adviser. “Everyone’s trying to make as many friends as they can.”

There’s also the nuts and bolts of running a serious presidential campaign — starting with raising money. Some potentials, like Buttigieg and Kelly, are building out their small-dollar fundraising network through digital ads on social media. Others are sitting down with major donors. Moore, for example, went on a West Coast fundraising swing in late May, according to invitations obtained by NOTUS.

Staffing, too, is heating up. In recent weeks, Kelly’s team has reached out to various top Democrats, seeking a senior communications adviser, according to two people directly familiar with the outreach. Buttigieg’s super PAC, Win the Era, is seeking a platform director. Moore and Beshear built out their communications teams with national operatives last year, and Gallego bulked out his national communications staff this spring.

“It’s going to be an arms race for quality staff because there are going to be so many candidates running and not enough good staff,” said a Democratic operative who has spoken with several potential 2028 teams. “If a candidate waits too long, they’ll lose out on the best staffers.”

Some potential 2028 operatives might be holding out for someone better: One senior party strategist said many are angling to work on Ossoff’s potential campaign. They’re won over by his anti-corruption speeches and the perception that, if he wins reelection this year, he’ll be among the presidential race’s clear-cut front-runners.

Jon Ossoff is seen as a strong potential presidential candidate, but there are implications for control of the Senate if he were to leave his seat. Hyosub Shin/AP

But Ossoff’s path might be complicated by in-state politics: If Keisha Lance Bottoms doesn’t win her race for governor in Georgia, an Ossoff replacement in the Senate would be appointed by a Republican.

Some Democrats say they are confident that the presidential primary will turn out OK for the party, buoyed by what they regard as a deep field of strong candidates and a belief that even a chaotic process can lead to a strong nominee.

To others, that’s hopium. The party’s last open presidential primary, in 2020, saw candidates embrace a variety of lefty political positions in hopes of attracting voter support — policies that hindered the party in subsequent general elections. The race also featured a large field where candidates tripped over themselves trying anything to grab attention.

“It was a race to the left in 2020, and I think it’ll be a race to the middle this time, and I don’t know if that will be compelling to voters,” said a Democratic operative who worked on a 2020 progressive presidential campaign.

But even 2020 had a somewhat orderly process for debates and an agreed-upon primary schedule, neither of which is guaranteed in 2028. The DNC is still setting the early-state slate, and Iowa Democrats are threatening to go rogue by holding their caucus early regardless of the committee’s decision — which could prompt 2028 candidates to also circumvent the DNC’s process.

“If Iowa is driving attention, then yeah, we’ll go there,” an adviser to a potential 2028 candidate said, “because the primary is going to be more nationalized than ever before.”

The turmoil in Ken Martin’s tenure as chair of the DNC could affect the primaries. Allison Robbert/AP

There’s deep concern across the party about DNC Chair Ken Martin’s ability to manage the process. Some advisers to potential candidates doubt that many of them will wait to let the DNC organize a debate schedule for 2027 and 2028. The candidates might simply organize the debates themselves, in conjunction with media organizations.

“I don’t have faith that the leadership of the DNC will be able to execute a fair debate process that will allow every candidate to not only participate but be heard on the stage,” said an adviser to a different candidate. “I don’t have confidence in that.”

Martin’s own leadership might become an early issue in the primary: One adviser to a candidate considering running in 2028 said his team has already discussed asking the chair to step aside.

Martin appears to still have the support of DNC members despite the turmoil around his tenure. And senior officials with the committee say they have already begun preparing for 2028, chalking up concerns about their ability to manage the primary to a general anxiety all Democrats feel while Trump is in office.

“The thing that’s probably causing people agony is not the DNC, it’s the environment,” said Minyon Moore, co-chair of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.

The DNC is making its own preparations. It is sounding out multiple influencers about participating in a potential creator-led debate during the 2028 primaries, according to one person with direct knowledge of the outreach.

That’s not a surprise to Democratic operatives, many of whom cited influencers as a new frontier for candidates. Newsom is courting them directly, several digitally focused Democrats said, pointing to his recent book tour, which featured conversations with creators and podcasters such as Brian Tyler Cohen, Adam Friedland, Jack Cocchiarella and the “Pod Save America” hosts.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom sits for an interview on Vivian Tu’s podcast at the South by Southwest festival. Jack Plunkett/Invision via AP

“Influencers are the new gatekeepers to the grassroots, and when they endorse someone, it will be a very big deal,” said Kyle Tharp, a researcher who writes a newsletter focused on the intersection of Democratic politics and the internet. “At the same time, there’s a mess of pay-to-post influencer marketing roiling the party now, and it’s going to be a total disaster in 2028.”

In this media environment, nearly all Democratic strategists agree that a successful candidate must be able to nail a 30-second TikTok, one-hour town hall and three-hour podcast. For an electorate ingesting their politics almost entirely through social media, authenticity — and grabbing attention — is everything.

“A lot of these people have the Kamala Harris syndrome, where the moment you ask them to say something that’s not scripted, or planned, or direct-to-camera, they can’t. They fall apart,” said a Democratic strategist. “You go on Jennifer Welch’s podcast and you say the wrong thing, you’re toast on the internet and your fundraising dries up.”

Most 2020 presidential campaigns followed a similar template: Launch your campaign in a video, host a rally in your hometown, roll through the early states with small to medium-sized events, hand-shaking and selfie lines.

That won’t fly in 2028, these operatives said. You “can’t do a steady-as-she-goes” campaign, “going from town hall to town hall in Iowa anymore,” said one veteran of a 2020 campaign.

“If you aren’t already a household name, how do you become one?” said another 2020 staffer. “For every Buttigieg who does that in a presidential campaign, there are five Hickenloopers and Inslees who don’t.”

For most, that means surviving the gauntlet of 2027 just to get to voters in 2028.

“There’s really two primaries ahead. There’s the 2027 primary, which is about Twitter, reporters, donors, polls, who’s up and who’s down. That primary doesn’t have much to do with the second primary, in 2028, which is about voters,” said Addisu Demissie, who recently led the campaign for California’s redistricting ballot initiative and managed Booker’s 2020 bid. “Can you survive the wringer that is the elite circles, so you can make it to Super Tuesday?”

Many polls indicate that Harris would start the race with the most support, in part because of her near-universal name recognition among Democratic voters. Even her critics concede that the former vice president’s strong early support among Black voters, especially Black women, puts her in an enviable position.

But her defeat in 2024 will also weigh heavily with voters, strategists say.

“We haven’t nominated a losing nominee since Adlai Stevenson,” said Matt Bennett, cofounder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. That was in 1956.

Some are holding out hope that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will change her mind and run for the Democratic presidential nomination. Isaac Ritchey/AP

If neither Harris nor Ocasio-Cortez runs — and those close to the congresswoman say they are unsure whether she’ll declare — the field could be almost uniformly male, even though women make up the majority of the party’s voters. That could give any woman who runs, including Slotkin or Whitmer, a chance to vault into the race’s top tier.

“I said to someone that I think there’s going to be 27 men running and maybe one woman,” said one veteran of the 2020 campaign. “And I believe that.”

With so many candidates running, strategists say, there will be an intense and chaotic competition to win even a sliver of attention.

Democratic operatives expect that the primary will begin in earnest immediately after the midterm elections end in November. They just hope the party will still be intact when it ends 18 months or so later.

“I don’t dislike any of these as options as we sit two and a half years before the election,” said Pearcey, the Elizabeth Warren operative. “But how are we going to get from here to the end of primary season 2028 unscathed? That’s the problem we have.”