Uneven Pain at the Pump

Today’s notice: Gas hikes are felt more by one side of the political spectrum. A Democratic candidate snags another Republican staffer. A developer has a good shot at getting a slice of Yosemite. And: Governors’ races could make or break a Democratic majority.

THE LATEST

The results are in: Donald Trump’s supporters are shouldering more of the pain at the pump, even if they’re not complaining about it as much. Gas prices are up, on average, more than a buck since the Iran war began, and Americans are ponying up more to fill the tank — but they’re not suffering equally.

NOTUS’ resident data guru, Andrew Van Dam, dug into the numbers: About 87% of workers in the Trumpiest fifth of the U.S. commute by car, almost 40% more than the fifth of the country that went most heavily for Kamala Harris in 2024. And even though there are higher prices in Democratic-leaning counties (read: Los Angeles County), it was offset by the fact that they tend to drive less, and that city jobs tend to pay more.

Households in the reddest areas allocate about twice as much of their income as their bluest buddies for gas. Here’s the but: When asked how gas prices will fare in the next 12 months, Republicans are the only ones optimistically saying they’ll drop.

“Republicans are still giving the president a little latitude on that,” said Joanne Hsu, who watches consumers at the University of Michigan, “because there’s a belief that as soon as the war is over, gas prices are going to come down.”

Open tabs: Putin sees U.S. as weakened by Iran war, intelligence reports say (WaPo); Trump Plans to Mark 9/11 at the Pentagon, Not Ground Zero (NYT); Judge again blocks Trump mail ballot executive order (AP); ICE agent arrested for shooting released from Texas jail (Star Tribune); U.S. close to striking “massive” deal for Venezuelan oil fields (Axios)

From the campaign trail

First on NOTUS: Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton hired a longtime Republican staffer to lead his campaign’s digital operations, NOTUS’ Igor Bobic scoops, joining fellow red-state Senate Democratic candidate James Talarico of Texas in bringing on bipartisan help as a way to appeal to moderate voters in November.

Austin Gilpin, who previously worked for the Republican firm America Rising, Rep. Ron Estes and the Kansas Republican Party, signed up in June as Hamilton’s campaign digital director. Gilpin said in a statement that Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has chosen “his party and his president over Kansas, and over decency,” and that the incumbent “doesn’t speak up when the federal government oversteps.”

“I didn’t leave my values behind when I joined Adam’s campaign,” Gilpin said. “Republicans always have a seat at his table, and he is earning their support the same way he earned mine.”

Coming to a town near you: Protect Our Care is launching a tour this October, driving a bus emblazoned with its message of “Sick of It! Fix Health Care Now” across 14 states with 40 stops, including in Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The left-leaning health-care advocacy group is targeting Republicans’ big legislative achievement, the One Big Beautiful Bill, which made cuts to public health insurance.

Election deniers are on the ballot this year, and if they win, they’ll be uniquely positioned to run the same elections they’ve often called into question, NOTUS’ Adora Brown reports. The candidates aren’t just positioning themselves in deep-red states, but also three key 2028 swing states: Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin. And while Trump has largely stayed out of races for the top election-official position, they could be some of his most crucial allies as he pushes to obtain voter rolls and federalize election oversight.

“They may just willingly give up election materials. They may just willingly give up cast ballots. They may just willingly give up election machines,” said Edward Caspar, chief counsel for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

THE BIG ONE

Yo, what? The National Park Service is working to give a corner of Yosemite National Park to a private developer as part of a land exchange. NOTUS Anna Kramer reports that the Park Service has been quietly working — under orders from Interior Department top brass — to give an easement for a roughly quarter-mile strip of land inside the park to a Nevada-based company that owns an 85-acre plot just outside Yosemite. The CEO of Kingsbarn Realty Capital, which, through a web of LLCs, operates the ownership of the land, wants to build a road connecting the property to the park, giving the land rare, private access to a shielded part of Yosemite.

People familiar with the conversations told Anna that the unprecedented deal, and the political pressure they are facing to push it through, is a reversal from Interior’s past position on the project.

“It kind of smells, you know,” one person familiar with the plans told Anna, pointing to the potential gain for the private developer. “It’s not quite right.”

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

Jesse Watters vs. Abdul El-Sayed was not just compelling TV, writes Matt K. Lewis. It was also great for American democracy.

NOTUS METRO

Sign up for our local newsletter, written by Martin Austermuhle and Zara Norman.

Local news: D.C. Won’t Say How It’s Using Its Flock Cameras, by Martin Austermuhle and Jenny Gathright

Sports desk: No-Stakes Baseball Doesn’t Exist — Not Even at Nats Park, by Jesse Dougherty

NEW ON NOTUS

Keep an eye on the guvs: The House majority could hinge on something completely out of candidates’ control: who wins the governors’ races. With no presidential candidate at the top of the ticket this year, NOTUS’ Paul Kane writes that if Democratic governors maintain their strong polling margins, that could carry down the ballot and help determine who controls the House. In swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, winning those governorships could mean a sea change for Democrats.

More: DCA Warned About Communications Issues With Marine One Before August Safety Incident, by Angie Orellana Hernandez

Wyoming Governor Asks State Attorney General to Investigate DOJ Election Observers, by Jenna Monnin

Former Stars and Stripes Journalists Sue Pete Hegseth After Firings, by Torrie Herrington

NOT US

• A Republican Attack Ad Used a Family’s Tragedy. Now They’re Furious. By Jessica Contrera for The New York Times
• Memes and Machine Guns: How Brandon Herrera Built a Path to Congress, by Kiera Butler for Mother Jones
• NDAs are hiding data center deals, drawing ire from locals — and attention from lawmakers, by Drew Hawkins for NPR
• What If Canada Joined the E.U.? By Ishaan Tharoor for The New Yorker

BE SOCIAL

Strike 1.

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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton. Photo by Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP.