A pair of polls released early this week reaffirmed the conventional wisdom in two key races: Democratic governors in Arizona and Pennsylvania appear headed for victory.
And the margins in those polls suggested the potential for the type of coattails that could boost Democrats to down-ballot victories and a House majority.
In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs held a lead of 15 percentage points over Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, according to an independent firm with roots in Arizona conservative politics. And in Pennsylvania, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro had a 16-point lead over the Republican nominee, Stacy Garrity, according to a poll conducted by The Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Times and Sienna University.
“Gubernatorial races certainly aren’t the be-all, end-all for House contests in their state, but you’d rather be winning those statewide contests than losing them, and Democrats look like they’ll be on the winning side in far more places than Republicans,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, told NOTUS.
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In Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans are defending five toss-up seats in the House,with one more in each state that are considered vulnerable.
Those seven seats include six Republican incumbents who have won in tough political environments before, having received crossover votes from people who supported Democrats higher up on the ballot.
But those types of margins for Hobbs and Shapiro, if they hold true in November, will make it an even tougher uphill climb for these Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, like most of the swing states he won two years ago, President Donald Trump is now deeply unpopular, with the new poll finding just 38 percent of voters approved of his job performance.
Nationally, Democrats stand a chance to claim a majority of the 50 governor’s mansions for the first time since before the 2010 midterm elections.
Republicans currently hold 26, while Democrats hold 24. Of the 36 gubernatorial races this year, Democrats are clearly favored to win 13 and Republicans should easily win 10, according to The Cook Report with Amy Walter’s analysis.
Of the four pure toss-up races, three are currently held by Republicans. Winning a majority would mark a dramatic sea change for Democrats, who after the 2016 elections held just 16 governorships.
The national media spotlight usually shines much brighter on Senate races, but back in the states, gubernatorial battles can often be a bigger driving force in this era of increasing polarization, where fewer voters split their tickets.
And in states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, where there is no Senate race, the battle for top state executive will be the only major statewide race driving turnout this fall.
Republicans believe they gain some potential help from other governors’ races, particularly in Florida. Democrats are defending three competitive House seats and they haven’t won a gubernatorial race there in more than 30 years. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination earlier this month, when almost 450,000 more people voted in the GOP primary than in the Democratic primary.
The Arizona poll also might be an outlier as most analysts still believe the race is competitive, with Hobbs having a small but important edge.
While few strategists give Republican Bruce Blakeman a chance to defeat New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, his background as a county executive on Long Island has some believing he can boost House Republican challengers there against Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen.
But the broader climate, at this moment, is lifting Democratic spirits, providing openings in some races that might now seem like a reach if the nominees to run the state win big.
In Iowa, state Auditor Rob Sand is now a narrow favorite to become the first Democrat to win a governor’s race in 20 years.
“Sand’s strong, well-funded candidacy is contributing to Republicans’ headaches in the state. And it could help deliver multiple House districts to Democrats in November,” Nathan Gonzales wrote last month.
Four years ago, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is retiring, won reelection by almost 19 points, helping Republicans sweep all four of the state’s House seats for the first time since 1994.
In 2024, even with Trump winning the state by more than 13 points, Iowa Republican Rep. Zach Nunn won by less than 4 percentage points and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by about 800 votes.
In 2018, when Reynolds narrowly won the governor’s race, Democrats took three of the delegation’s House seats. Republicans privately hope that since Iowa has an unusual ballot with the governor’s race at the bottom, independent voters will consider those House races separately before viewing the governor’s contest.
Colorado’s transformation from a swing state to reliably blue for Democrats has not — yet — reshaped its House delegation, which is evenly split 4-4 on party lines.
Given Gov. Jared Polis’ 20-point victory four years ago there, Democrats are hoping for another double-digit margin for state Attorney General Phil Weiser in the governor’s race. That would put Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in grave danger in a genuine toss-up race — and it has prompted two previously safe Republicans, Reps. Jeff Crank and Jeff Hurd, to run much harder this cycle than in their previous races.
The Republican nominees for both governor and senator in Colorado have shown little signs of political life, leaving down-ballot Republicans to essentially fend for themselves.
“It’s helpful to have at least one statewide candidate who is adding onto the TV advertising, ground game, and enthusiasm. That’s especially true in a year where Republicans may struggle to turn out the Trump coalition without the president on the ballot,” Inside Elections’ Rubashkin said.
One wild card is California, where three House seats — two Republican, one Democratic — are hotly contested and the governor’s race is all but assured to go to Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former Cabinet secretary and state attorney general.
Republican Rep. David Valadao survived in 2022 despite Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 18-point win statewide, because the Republican gubernatorial nominee narrowly won his Central Valley district.
Valadao probably needs this year’s Republican nominee, political commentator Steve Hilton, to perform at least that well, or better, to win another term.
An early-August poll from the Los Angeles Times showed Becerra with 55 percent of the vote, compared with 37 percent for Hilton.
Pennsylvania might give Democrats their best bet for down-ballot help, as Shapiro first won in 2022 by 15 percentage points over a far-right legislator who had little money.
Heading into this year, Republicans found early hope when the state treasurer, Garrity, who received more votes in Pennsylvania in 2024 than anyone but Trump, entered the race against Shapiro, but Garrity’s campaign has struggled to launch.
The Cook report summarized the race by noting “a gargantuan cash-on-hand advantage and a decisive polling lead”for the incumbent Democrat.
There’s some hope for ticket-splitting voters, based on findings in the so-called crosstabs of the Inquirer poll showing Shapiro so far ahead. When voters in Northeast Pennsylvania were asked if they preferred a generic Republican or Democrat in Congress, the Republican held a 7-point edge.
That’s some solace for Republican Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie, both of whom narrowly won two years ago on Trump’s coattails in that region of the state.
Take Trump off the ballot, and Democrats believe turnout will doom those Republicans. They believe that will also happen in the Harrisburg area, where a staunch conservative, Rep. Scott Perry, has never modified his stances as his increasingly suburban district has drifted toward the political center.
The most intriguing Pennsylvania race might be just north of Philadelphia, where Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and his late brother, Mike, have won nine of the last 11 races in that perennial battleground district.
In 2022, when Shapiro won Fitzpatrick’s district by 20 points, the incumbent faced a neophyte Democratic challenger who wasn’t from Bucks County. He won easily, as he did again in 2024 against the same Democrat.
Now, Trump is in the White House and suburban voters are just as angry. The Democratic nominee, Bob Harvie, was born and raised in the county, served as a teacher there, got involved in local politics and was elected to a countywide, three-person commission.
By late June, far earlier than in most races, Fitzpatrick’s campaign unloaded with deeply negative ads about Harvie, a sign of how serious the race had already become.
In late July, appearing with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Shapiro turned a campaign event into a pep rally for the four downballot candidates he hopes will ride into office with him.
“I believe those four races hold the key to who is in the majority in the Congress,” he said.
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