The 2026 Countdown Begins

Today’s notice: Election takeaways. Trump finds a culprit to blame. Officially the longest government shutdown on record. And: An important day to listen in on the Supreme Court.

THE LATEST

Spin time: It was 6:34 p.m. — about 30 minutes shy of polls closing in Virginia — when the first Democratic operative called us to gloat. The party’s prediction that federal workers would revolt against DOGE was coming true in Northern Virginia precincts.

It was a very good Nov. 4, 2025, for Democrats. “If 2017 and 2018 were about the resistance, 2025 and 2026 could be the reckoning,” Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist, told NOTUS’ Alex Roarty. “Last time, it was about fighting back. This time it’s about people being betrayed.”

Some toplines: Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill won their governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey in a big way, defying polls. Zohran Mamdani won the nationally followed mayoral election in New York City with huge turnout. Virginia Democrats elected the first Muslim woman ever to statewide office in the U.S., Ghazala Hashmi, as lieutenant governor, and the party won its biggest majority in the state House of Delegates since 1989. Maine rejected a strict voter ID ballot measure and California passed Prop 50. Pennsylvania kept its liberal justices.

Does this mean Democrats will have a good Nov. 3, 2026? What we do know is that they calmed some nerves. “The political winds are firmly at Democrats’ backs,” House Majority PAC blasted out to its network this morning.

Republicans are counting on Tuesday’s races being uniquely 2025 races. “I’m actually not surprised,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis said last night on CNN about Spanberger’s double-digit victory. “How long could you hold on to a state like Virginia, particularly when you have so many government workers in that area.”

The GOP previewed its message for the next cycle (or maybe forever), sending out a memo on how the party will be comparing every Democratic candidate to Mamdani. We also expect to be hearing more about Jay Jones, Virginia’s attorney general-elect, who was embroiled in a texting scandal where he allegedly fantasized about shooting a state Republican lawmaker.

Donald Trump’s election night analysis, on the other hand, suggested Republicans were losing the government shutdown fight. “‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,’ according to Pollsters,” the president posted. It was unclear which pollsters he was referring to.

Open tabs: Trump admin hints furloughed workers may not be paid after shutdown (WaPo); Republicans honor Dick Cheney while Trump remains silent (NYT); At least 7 dead after UPS plane crashes (NBC); Kansas Republicans drop redistricting push (AP)

From the election night crosstabs

For the election nerds, some stats we think will matter:

It was the highest voter turnout in more than 50 years in New York City, with more than 2 million ballots cast, our Washington Bureau Initiative partners at The City report. “By comparison, 1.1 million ballots were cast in the entire 2021 election won by Eric Adams,” per The City.

In New Jersey’s Hudson County, election watchers wanted to see whether Jack Ciattarelli could hold onto Trump’s gains among non-white voters. Instead, Sherrill appears to have outperformed Kamala Harris by 21 points, Steve Kornacki pointed out.

Some “consolation” for Republicans came from elections expert Dave Wasserman: “The bottom didn’t entirely drop out,” he wrote on X, noting that Republicans were looking on track to hold on to the five Virginia House of Delegates seats where Trump won by five to 10 points.

From the Hill

About that shutdown, Congress has hit the record for longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Senators have started talking, but there’s nothing close to an immediate plan out there, NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer reports.

“This is the strangest shutdown I’ve ever been involved in,” Sen. John Curtis said. “We’re going home. The Senate is conducting business as if there’s no shutdown and just doing our nominations. The House is not here.”

Despite Trump’s best efforts (read: many Truth Social posts well into Tuesday night, as Democrats were declared winners across the map), the Senate is nowhere close to nuking the filibuster to end the shutdown, NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson and Em report.

From the courts

“It’s fundamentally a question of whether the Constitution even matters” is how Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union’s Free Trade Initiative, explained the stakes of the Supreme Court’s oral arguments today on two cases regarding Trump’s use of tariffs.

“This case, if it goes the wrong way, will give this president and future presidents almost unchecked power over international transactions,” he told NOTUS’ Violet Jira.

From the White House

Also, what Trump did know about Changpeng Zhao, the Binance founder and crypto billionaire he pardoned, is maybe more interesting than Trump saying he didn’t know him. Why? Because it provides yet another window into how the pardon economy works around Trump.

Two words that can go a long way: Biden and weaponization, preferably together. “The administration definitely is sympathetic to cases of weaponization from the Biden years,” one person close to the White House and the growing pardon economy told Jasmine.

NEW ON NOTUS

Not running: “It is with a full heart, and more commitment than ever, that I am choosing to not run for governor of California next year,” Sen. Alex Padilla said standing next to his wife outside of the Senate chamber. He told NOTUS, “The last few days have been really focused on campaigning for Proposition 50.”

Looking to Nancy: The last time Democrats had a government shutdown and Trump to contend with, Nancy Pelosi was the boss. This shutdown has proven other leaders can hold together the disparate caucus, but NOTUS’ Emily Kennard reports that some are still missing the woman whose jersey hangs in the party rafters.

Keep me out of it: “For those who want to invoke my name, please have the courtesy to note my actions and how I treat police officers, TSA agents, and fellow travelers with the respect they deserve,” Sen. Tim Scott wrote on Facebook, referring to Rep. Nancy Mace’s profanity-laced tirade against Charleston International Airport security officials.

“It’s extremely rich that someone with a half dozen personal security detail is commenting on the safety of a woman,” said Clare Considine, Mace’s former senior adviser whom the congresswoman referred NOTUS to when asked for comment.

More: Judge Demands to See More Evidence on Lindsey Halligan’s Handling of Comey Case, by Jose Pagliery

Jeanine Pirro Set to Attend Award Ceremony Honoring Jan. 6 Investigator, by Jose Pagliery

Duffy Warns of Airspace Closures and ‘Mass Chaos’ if Shutdown Persists, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

NOT US

• Democratic Voters Bury Bidenism and Embrace Disruption, by Alexander Burns for Politico
• A Little-Noted Element Propelled Mamdani’s Rise: Gen Z Loneliness, by Emma Goldberg and Benjamin Oreskes for The New York Times
• Americans on Food Stamps Have No Good Options, by Nicholas Florko for The Atlantic

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The newsletter was produced by Tara Golshan, Brett Bachman and Andrew Burton. Photo by Yuki Iwamura/AP.