Today’s notice: House Republicans stay home. House Democrats … maybe do, too? Touching the Third Rail of American politics. Madison Cawthorn burns his bridges. Plus: Developments in Chicago and Portland.
THE LATEST
Get comfortable. Lawmakers see little chance of a breakthrough on the shutdown this week, NOTUS’ Hill team reports.
Republicans are banking on math: They need five more Democratic Senators to vote for the House-passed continuing resolution. In the immediate term, the cajoling is focused on the retiring Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Gary Peters.
Democrats are looking for a win: They are firmly asking for a new CR with the ACA subsidy extensions, rescission limits and other stuff they’ve been asking for since the shutdown began. Their demands have not changed.
About that bipartisan gathering on the floor people noticed: “Just because we’re talking doesn’t mean that we’re there yet,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski said.
Coming attractions: The Senate will continue to vote on the House CR until one side budges.
WFH days. The House was scheduled to come back tomorrow, but Mike Johnson said last week the chamber should stay home, possibly until the Senate passes the House CR.
“Coming back now, you’re just negotiating against yourself,” chairman of the House Appropriations Committee Tom Cole said as he stood behind the strategy.
As for the Democrats, Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Friday he planned to bring his caucus back this week. However, the first opportunity House Democrats have to gather in person — a Monday evening full caucus meeting — will be virtual. It’s unclear whether Jeffries will schedule any required programming in D.C. this week, the Hill team reports.
“There’s a lot of confusion over what the guidance from leadership is,” one House Democratic member told NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz.
Open Tabs Trump officials discussed sending elite Army division to Portland: Texts (Minnesota Star Tribune); Animal welfare is now part of RFK Jr.’s MAHA agenda (Politico); Hegseth fires Navy secretary’s chief of staff (Stars and Stripes); NPR dropped by D.C.-area public radio station (Dave Levinthal via Substack)
From the shutdown
I enjoy firing people? Republicans have struggled to find a consistent message about the mass layoffs promised by the White House. Sometimes they say Russell Vought is living out his lifelong ambitions. Sometimes they say there’s no pleasure in the layoffs. And sometimes they turn layoffs into a game, like Rep. Andy Ogles did in a post last week.
Republican leaders have tried to be very cautious about rhetoric around this shutdown, and Democrats are telling us they think stuff like this shows the GOP is not succeeding in that effort.
Touching the Third Rail: If the shutdown continues for a month, the Social Security Administration’s work of notifying recipients of their benefit increases could be delayed, NOTUS’ Jade Lozada reports.
Why this is a thing: The mass furloughs at BLS are indefinitely delaying just about all federal economic data. That means the September Consumer Price Index data, too, which is currently due to be released on Oct. 15. SSA uses that CPI data to calculate its cost of living adjustment.
From the Hill
Fun bunch. Senators got some R&R this weekend after a stressful week of staring at each other and not budging on government spending bills. But what does R&R look like for these people? NOTUS’ Tyler Spence asked around.
Sen. Lindsey Graham: College football and snacks. Chick-fil-A nuggets with barbecue sauce and some pecan pie, to be exact. Sen. Ted Cruz: hanging with the fam, twice a week pickup basketball, regular poker games. Sen. Tom Cotton: declined to comment.
Exactly as you’d expect, Sen. Bernie Sanders said “not much” when asked about his weekend plans. When pressed, he said he’s looking forward to spending time with his grandkids.
From the White House
Israel continued its bombing campaign on Gaza Sunday, killing more than a dozen people despite a plea from Trump to stop the bloodshed and facilitate the handover of hostages.
Mediators are set to meet Monday in Egypt to discuss the logistics of a peace deal, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an ABC News interview that the current negotiations are “the closest we’ve come to getting all of the hostages released.” But he acknowledged that the ongoing strikes were a challenge to the peace process.
“We have to look at exactly what those operations were,” Rubio said. “But ultimately, yes, you cannot have an exchange if there’s active combat ongoing, you just can’t do it.”
From the states
“Get the heck out”: That was Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s demand on Sunday to the federal agents patrolling the streets of Chicago, just hours after the White House announced that it was activating the state’s National Guard to assist in an immigration blitz currently roiling the Windy City.
Hitting pause: A Trump-appointed federal judge over the weekend also temporarily halted Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Portland, writing that the president exceeded his constitutional authority and that anti-ICE protests in the city did not pose a “danger of a rebellion.”
As a way around the order, the White House tried to send 300 California National Guard troops to Oregon — a move U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut promptly blocked as well, saying that it was “in direct contravention” to her previous ruling.
NEW ON NOTUS
Cawthorn burn book. “Madison was a disaster in his first term in Congress and everything that Team Trump has seen from him since, only makes people think he’s going to be even a bigger disaster this time around,” a source close to the White House said of the former North Carolina congressman’s new run for office in Florida.
Trumpworld’s take is, “get lost,” NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reports. “The great thing about Trump 2.0 is how fast the grifters and the pretenders have been exposed and removed,” a White House-aligned strategist said. “Suffice it to say — Madison Cawthorn is a perfect example of the kind of pretender and fraud that has no place in the current GOP.”
More: Puerto Rico Bankruptcy Overseers Rage at Trump, by Amelia Benavides-Colón;
Judge Halts ICE Transfer of 18-Year-Olds From Children’s Shelters to Adult Detention, by Jackie Llanos
NOT US
- As feds probe D.C. crime stats, some police eager to help build a case, by Jenny Gathright and Olivia George for The Washington Post
- Dem AG Nominee Jay Jones Fantasized About Shooting Former Virginia GOP Speaker, by Audrey Fahlberg for National Review
- This Program Rescued Army Recruiting, by Greg Jaffe for The New York Times
WEEK AHEAD
Today: A new Supreme Court term begins.
Tuesday: Canadian PM Mark Carney is scheduled to visit the White House for trade talks.
Wednesday: The shutdown is resolved, and all sides love the result. Free ice cream is sent to every American in celebration. (Just checking to see if you read this far.)
Thursday: The arraignment of James Comey is scheduled to take place at a federal courthouse in Virginia.
Friday: The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner is scheduled to be announced.
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