Democrats’ Shutdown Arguments

Today’s notice: Inside one argument about the shutdown. Islamophobia is the closing message in NYC. Trump takes his “Art of the Deal” on tour. And: What type of immigration politics can cities hang on to?

THE LATEST

Is the shutdown getting more or less potent for Democrats? A microcosm of the moment is playing out in Rep. Elise Stefanik’s district.

The race is not at the top of national Democratic lists – it’s a Solid R, per the Cook Political Report – but it has a real Democratic primary and one campaign with a ton of money. Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien was the Democratic pick for an expected special election to replace Stefanik that never happened (recall that whole drama). He’s now running for 2026, and his entire message is that he knows how to win back rural voters. Rep. Jamie Raskin campaigned for him in September.

Democrats should pass the continuing resolution now, Gendebien told reporters on a Zoom call Friday, directing his comments at Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. The battle over health care costs “has been very helpful, and we understand that it’s worth fighting for. But at the same time, the damage that’s being done by the government shutdown is worse,” he said. “You don’t get to lose and then play games,” is how Gendebien sees this playing in upstate New York.

This is exactly wrong, another credentialed Democrat running in the same primary told us. “Republicans control the entire federal government, and they’re the ones who voted to double monthly health care costs for thousands of NY-21 families, put five of our hospitals at risk of closing, and create a 114-mile stretch that doctors here call a medical desert,” said Dylan Hewitt, who worked in the office of Joe Biden’s trade representative and announced his bid in September.

This conversation is coming to Washington. Most Senate Democrats believe every day the shutdown drags on makes their case for one stronger, NOTUS’ Ursula Perano reports. Saturday is the start of the Affordable Care Act open enrollment period.

“Republicans left in place this ticking time bomb,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen said.

But… Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff have both voted for a Republican bill that would pay some workers during the shutdown. Are they signaling that the shutdown’s political efficacy is starting to wane?

Open tabs: Donor Who Gave $130M to Pay Troops Is Reclusive Heir to Mellon Fortune (NYT); Pence’s Jan. 6 note to Trump revealed in new book (ABC News); Feds deploy tear gas in affluent Chicago neighborhood (Sun Times); Trump to raise tariffs on Canada by 10% over Ontario’s Reagan ad (FT)

From New York City

Government grocery store quips seem quaint now. Early voting is underway in the mayor’s race, and there is not much subtlety to Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa’s closing message.

“There are still certain forms of hate acceptable in this city today,” mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani said in a remarkable speech he posted as the attacks mounted. ”Islamophobia is not seen as inexcusable.” He detailed life as an American Muslim in the last couple decades and told his faith community that the years of laughing off prejudice as a protective measure are over.

In response to Mamdani, JD Vance posted on social media this weekend, “According to Zohran the real victim of 9/11 was his auntie who got some (allegedly) bad looks.”

This is not going away. Unless the polls are very wrong, Mamdani will almost certainly be mayor in January. He will have to contend with Donald Trump, who has vowed to revoke federal funds and take him on because he is “a communist.” At the same time, Republicans in Congress, including Reps. Andy Ogles and Randy Fine, continue to push for Mamdani’s denaturalization and deportation.

From the White House

Peace deals. Trade deals. Economic deals. That’s what one senior White House official told Jasmine to expect from Trump’s weeklong Asia trip, meant to brandish his reputation as a dealmaker-in-chief both domestically and now, overseas.

The peace deal part was in full swing. On Sunday, Trump attended an official signing of a ceasefire agreement between Cambodia and Thailand, which his administration helped negotiate earlier this year. In Japan, the president will meet with the nation’s emperor before meeting new conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

The big meeting doesn’t come until Thursday. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, are expected to face off, as both sides try to lower the temperature and reach a deal to avert a catastrophic trade war. “They’ll have to make concessions. I guess we will too,” the president said of China over the weekend.

“It will be an open conversation,” the official told Jasmine. Trump will bring up fentanyl, they said, and of course trade (cough, soybeans) and rare earth minerals. The official wouldn’t say if the White House was prepared for the president to enter the meeting bullish or with a frank tone. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was in Asia ahead of Trump for negotiations, struck an optimistic tone on Sunday that Trump would not leave empty handed. He said weekend talks yielded a “very successful framework” for the leaders to discuss.

THE BIG ONE

Can sanctuary cities survive? “I think there’s a lot of hope here in Portland,” City Councilor Sameer Kanal told NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos. “I hope there is in other cities as well around how we can use our collective voice in a way that’s going to achieve as much as we can within the limited scope of power that cities have.”

The city is trying to flex in the face of a federal law enforcement surge led by ICE, passing new legislation reinforcing sanctuary city jurisdictions. There’s an effort to utilize land use powers to impede ICE’s use of a privately-owned building it leases in town.

This is a major test of a political promise. New York AG Letitia James asked the public to gather videos and other evidence of ICE overreach to put in a new repository run by her office. Los Angeles County declared a state of emergency over immigration enforcement that allows it to, among other things, provide legal aid to families dealing with the aftermath of an ICE raid.

How far can state and local governments go is one question. California passed a law that bars masked immigration enforcement. The DOJ says the law is meaningless to ICE.

The bigger question, though, is how long local governments can keep this up. Cities like Portland, Chicago and L.A. have significant resources, but nothing close to the resources the feds command. The courts will likely be called on to decide what’s in and out of bounds when it comes to municipal powers over ICE.

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

“What is the largest blind spot in current financial oversight?”

A NOTUS forum featuring Hilary Allen, E.J. Antoni, Rohit Chopra, Rohan Grey, Thomas Hoenig, Kathryn Judge, Nellie Liang, Brad Lipton, Angela Walch and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Explore NOTUS Perspectives.

NEW ON NOTUS

Consolidation at the U.S. Forest Service: In a letter to Hill offices obtained by NOTUS’ Helen Huiskes, the agency presented a map that showed its regional oversight had been consolidated into five hubs. The agency cited “significant changes in our workforce during the last eight months,” which spans most of the second Trump administration.

California clash? Both Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris said over the weekend that they are considering presidential runs in 2028. “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” Newsom told CBS Sunday Morning when asked if he wants to launch a campaign.

Harris responded similarly: “I am not done,” she said. “I have lived my entire career as a life of service, and it’s in my bones.”

More: Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment Arrives, But Price Data Isn’t Being Updated, by Jade Lozada

Dems Look at California’s Prop 50 as a Blueprint for Redistricting, by Manuela Silva

NOT US

• How Trump Barreled Through D.C.’s Bureaucracy to Get His White House Ballroom, by Annie Linskey, Josh Dawsey and Will Parker for The Wall Street Journal
  
• Inside Gavin Newsom’s Multimillion-Dollar Business Empire, by Kyle Khan-Mullins for Forbes
  
• The Theory Behind Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy, by Thomas P.M. Barnett for Politico
  
• In Trump-Friendly Iowa, the President’s Policies Have Hit Hard, by Pooja Salhotra for The New York Times

WEEK AHEAD

Today: The 2028 Democratic nominating calendar is on the agenda at a DNC Rules and Bylaws committee meeting.

Tuesday: Interest rates will be discussed by the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee.

Oral arguments on whether a TRO blocking federal workforce RIFs will be extended are scheduled in the Northern District of California.

Thursday: Surgeon General nominee Casey Means is scheduled to appear before the Senate HELP Committee.

Trump is scheduled to return from his Asia trip after meeting with China’s Xi Jinping.

Friday: Halloween.

Saturday: Giant bags of candy go on sale everywhere.

ACA open enrollment period begins.

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