Defeat, From the Jaws of Victory?

Today’s notice: What a day, yesterday. Democrats deal with the Iran deal. The curious case of one prominent Republican consulting firm. Now we’re throwing new pipes at the Reflecting Pool, cuz why not. We fully endorse the Congressional Art Competition. Plus: Researchers warn more government data is disappearing.

THE LATEST

What comes next after a day like yesterday? Hours after he muddied his party’s midterm message by blowing up his own housing bill and getting into a shouting match with a Republican senator at lunch, Donald Trump took the stage to officially kick off America’s 250th anniversary celebration, and made no mention of either. Touting his successes in his second term, housing was not one of them. Greeting the Cabinet officials and lawmakers in the crowd, Senate Majority Leader John Thune was also not one of them.

It will not be easy to put Wednesday behind him. The housing bill was a signature populist achievement for a White House that really needed one. One can imagine an alternate universe where Trump triumphantly signed a bill focused on American pocketbooks while establishment Democrats were trying to figure out how to talk around their deep divisions exposed by primary voters in New York City. But that was not Wednesday.

One MAGA ally told Jasmine that yesterday was a “very ‘House of Cards’” morning. (Wait, we asked. Do you mean ‘Veep’? “I’d say ‘House of Cards’ because it was a move clearly intended to remind congressional Republicans, regardless of how much leverage they think they have, he does not GAF,” they replied.)

But the insider insisted the president was thinking about the future. Trump was trying to bring his own base together after the divisions caused by the Iran war, the ally said. He showed them he’s willing to punish a Republican Senate conference that continues to deny him his SAVE America Act. “So he makes Congress the enemy — an easy target, because who doesn’t love to hate Congress — and redirects the ire from the base away from himself and the White House,” the ally added.

Some Republicans are letting Trump take the lead after yesterday. House Speaker Mike Johnson told NOTUS’ Reese Gorman he plans to meet with Trump today to discuss how to pass the SAVE Act through reconciliation — which maybe only Johnson and Trump believe is actually possible at this moment.

But others say the only good that can come from the day is listening to Trump less. In a particularly spicy appearance on the NOTUS Podcast, retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) told our Al Weaver that the GOP needs to focus only on things that serve the midterms, not Trump. “If you’re not in cycle, I’m not interested in your opinion,” Tillis said.

Democrats are going to try their darndest to keep yesterday from ever ending. What Trump did was right out of their wildest dreams: He buried (for now) a populist bill that could have helped vulnerable Republicans, gave Democrats an easy talking point and potentially further demoralized voters who thought he was going to make their lives cheaper.

“Housing is a big deal. It is one of the top drivers of a cost-of-living increase across the country,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Washington), who chairs the DCCC, told us. “Swing voters are struggling with the cost of living, like every other voter.”

Open tabs: Internal memo orders staff not to reveal deaths in national parks (WaPo); Judge orders Kennedy Center to explain covering where Trump name was removed (The Hill); ‘They like a good batting average’: Crypto racks up primary wins (Politico); A Mock Arch and Daily Rodeos: Trump’s Fair Takes Over the Mall (NOTUS)

From the Hill

Watch this space: Democrats and Iran. The deal to end the Iran war signed by the Trump administration last week opened up a fracture in the opposition party over what to do next as another round of diplomacy unfolds, NOTUS’ Akbar Shahid Ahmed reports. Some Democrats, like Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, have treated the talks between the White House and Iran as inherently flawed. Others say the negotiations should be celebrated — albeit with caution.

What they want to do is say it’s good there are talks to end the war, but Trump’s deal is very bad. This is harder to do than it looks. “No elected member of Congress wants to be out there saying that we lost a war,” one Democratic Hill aide plugged in to the party infighting over messaging said, but, they added, “If a Democrat took over today, you still have to try to negotiate an agreement of some kind, and Trump left us with few options.”

Also watch this space: trouble for the Republican war powers coalition? Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) switched his vote in favor of constraining Trump’s unilateral powers in Iran to “present” last night. Paul posted that he still supports war powers, but is not voting for them as “a way to give the President more space and leverage to negotiate a lasting peace.”

From the campaign trail

That Big Dog don’t hunt? A B-plot from Tuesday’s primaries, courtesy of NOTUS’ Kadia Goba: the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial runoff featured what a number of Republicans are calling the Big Dog Strategies effect. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette received help from the firm, which features a huge picture of the president as its splash page and boasts it’s “the senior advisor to the only Super PAC directly blessed by President Donald Trump” — which very strongly implies a close connection to the guy. And what do you know: Evette had Trump’s endorsement for the June 9 primary balloting, but in the runoff he backed both her and state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who won.

Trump didn’t back all of the Republicans with ties to the “blessed” consultants, including primary losers like Rep. Buddy Carter (defeated in the Senate primary in Georgia) and Shelly deZevallos (failed in her bid to replace Rep. Wesley Hunt in Texas). Rep. Randy Feenstra did get Trump’s late backing in the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary, but he lost, and Trump later said, “Had I been given the proper information, which I don’t think I was, I probably would have endorsed the other person.”

A staffer for one of the candidates Big Dog worked for this cycle told Kadia the firm wasn’t particularly helpful on the consulting front, but promised access to the president and his endorsement. Which, as Evette learned, is fickle.

“This is categorically false and anyone who has ever worked with us will laugh at how ridiculous this made up nonsense truly is,” Big Dog’s Conor McGuinness said in response. “As we tell every client: anybody who tries to sell an endorsement is lying. There is only one person who determines who the President endorses: the President.”

From the White House

Upon further reflection: On the same day the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool turned green, the National Park Service began the planning process to upgrade the treatment pipes that feed the water feature, NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports. The agency has also updated its rules for whichever future company it hires to maintain the pool, requiring that it ensures the water is kept in a “clean, clear, and aesthetically acceptable condition.”

In other words, the developments show that long-standing problems plaguing the reflecting pool have not been fixed, and it will take a while to do so properly.

From the walls of the Capitol

An actual bipARTisan win: Reps. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma) and Joe Morelle (D-New York) will announce the student winners of this year’s Congressional Art Competition today in the Capitol Visitor Center. New decoration for the Cannon Tunnel!

NOTUS METRO

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Sports desk.: Look at the Nationals Fans, Feeling Again, by Jesse Dougherty

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

What would it look like if the next Democratic president governed like Trump? Liberal groups, Dana Milbank reports today at NOTUS Perspectives, are drafting dramatic plans for exactly that scenario.

NEW ON NOTUS

Researchers fear more government data drain: Researchers who rely on federal statistics are warning that the data used in social science to map disparities in American life may be disappearing, NOTUS’ Natalie Alms reports. As of March, federal agencies had deleted data on either gender identity or sexual orientation from over 360 government collections, according to one detailed study.

“The signals are that they’re coming for race and ethnicity data next,” Meeta Anand, the senior director for Census and data equity at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, told Natalie. The Trump administration has canceled the collection of some racial and ethnic data it says are not expressly mandated, and there have been efforts to slow or eliminate new racial and ethnic data collection mandated by the Biden administration. The Trump White House has dismissed those plans as dangerous DEI.

An administration spokesperson responds: Trump has “restored merit and efficiency.”

More: Hegseth’s Defense-Spending Pitch Leaves House GOP Without a Clear Path, by Joe Gould and Stephen Neukam

Americans Tell the Trump Administration to Back Off ‘The View,’ by Jenna Monnin

NOT US

• The new power broker: How Zohran Mamdani muscled NYC’s Democratic establishment, by Edward-Isaac Dovere for CNN
• You Can’t Influence Your Way to Congress, by Gabe Fleisher for Wake Up to Politics
• How a $45 Million Donation Brought Larry Ellison Deeper Into Trump’s Circle, by Emily Glazer, Annie Linskey and Jessica Toonkel for The Wall Street Journal

BE SOCIAL

Don’t go for the gold coins!

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The newsletter was produced by Kelly Poe, Thomas Burr, Brett Bachman and Andrew Burton. Photo by AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin.