The return of Donald Trump means the return of existential thinking among many institutionalists in Washington. The next Trump administration and its specific policy goals are still coming together, but the clear message from Trump’s political career is that some fundamental changes to basic government functions is the goal. Today, some fresh NOTUS reporting on how some are preparing for Trump’s takeover.
NATO: Senators and international order fans say they feel OK about this one, thanks to a 2023 bill (co-sponsored by Marco Rubio 👀) that makes it very, very hard to fully withdraw the U.S. from NATO without most of Congress giving the OK. However, the law isn’t completely a sure thing, and there are ways the future president could undermine the U.S. commitment to NATO, should he decide to make good on campaign promises.
Climate change: Environmentalists gathered in Azerbaijan for the latest U.N. climate summit tell NOTUS’ Anna Kramer they are focusing on “the subnational level.” In the last Trump term, governors and mayors formed alliances that attempted to meet international climate change goals. One activist told Anna he’s optimistic that those alliances will mean Trump’s national policy shifts are “not going to be a complete bloodbath.”
The Senate: This particular institution has confounded presidents for time immemorial, and in recent years, senators have relished their power to slow things down and stare down an administration’s best-laid plans. Trump dealt with this a lot in his first term. But new reporting from Riley on the incoming Senate finds Republicans with little desire to be a Trump-proof wall this time.
“Let me just translate,” Sen. Josh Hawley said. “‘Check’ means blocking pieces of [Trump’s] agenda or slowing it down.” Hawley said new Senate GOP Leader John Thune has made it clear “he would absolutely not do that, that he would be pedal to the metal, that he would push through nominees, that he would push through legislation.”
Even with Thune’s history of Trump criticism, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito told Riley, “I think it’ll be pretty seamless.” Sen. Lindsey Graham said he favored modeling the next term on Sen. Chuck Schumer’s majority, which “confirmed over 200 judges, confirmed 22 of 23 cabinet officials and passed dozens of laws.”
Of course, Schumer was rarely confronted with the kinds of nominees that Thune will have to contend with. “I mean, President Trump, with some of these appointments, he is testing to see whether Republican senators have a gag reflex or not,” Sen. Tim Kaine said.
Trump Did It. Can the Rest of the GOP?
Democrats are very publicly arguing about what to do after Trump’s remarkable electoral performance. It turns out that a lot of Republicans are trying to figure out what to do too. The president-elect outperformed a lot of other GOP candidates on the ballot, and NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports the GOP consultant class is trying to ascertain what of Trump’s run they can replicate in future campaigns.
Easier said than done, you might be saying. That’s also what they’re saying, Alex reports. “Your typical podcast bro does not care about his local Senate race, but he will show up and vote for Trump,” Giancarlo Sopo told Alex.
But strategists are starting to think a lot about Trump’s “emphasis on finding nontraditional Republican voters” and his “professed support for entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security as a policy platform for others to adopt.”
Read the story here.
Front Page
- Tim Scott’s New NRSC Hire Is Ruffling Feathers Even Before It’s Official: Scott is tapping Mike Pence’s former campaign manager to be executive director.
- Alabama Republicans Have a Top Priority Now That Trump Is Coming Back: Space Command HQ: “We’ll be working directly with the Trump team to make this move and make it permanent,” one member said.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is Trump’s Pick to Run the U.S. Health System: Now to find out what going “wild on health” means.
- Gaetz’s Antitrust Positions Align With Progressives. They Just Don’t Trust Him: “I hope that actually he does care about antitrust, but I believe nothing they say.”
What Conflict of Interest?
Elon Musk digging into how the federal government spends money seems to be the definition of a conflict of interest. Republicans in Congress aren’t concerned.
“As long as the laws are being followed, we should be OK,” Sen. Mike Rounds told NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt.
But experts aren’t sure the laws will be followed. Donald Sherman, the executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said he didn’t believe compliance with ethics rules would be top of mind for Musk as he tries to improve government efficiency.
“There’s a lot at stake for the American people in this arrangement, whatever it is,” Sherman said.
Rounds’ House colleagues shared his optimism. They said Musk’s contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin was to be expected. After all, he’s Elon Musk.
“He’s the richest guy in the world,” Rep. Mike Lawler said. “It doesn’t surprise me that other world leaders are in communication.”
When Your Trump Reference Point Is Jan. 6…
Black House Democrats, who have yet to experience a Trump presidency in Congress, are spooked and considering boosting their security. “Racists are emboldened,” Rep. Jennifer McClellan, who was first elected in 2023, told NOTUS. “There are no guardrails now.”
McClellan is among those looking into dedicating more of her office’s budget toward security and told NOTUS she’s spoken to many other Black and white Democrats who are thinking the same. Many of the newer Congressional Black Caucus members have seen House Republican leadership do little to address rampant racist rhetoric in the party or the rise of hate speech nationwide. Trump’s impact is even more of a wild card.
“I don’t know what to expect,” Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, who was elected in the 2022 midterms, said. “My reference point with Trump and D.C. is Jan. 6.”
—Tinashe Chingarande
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- Trump Boosters at Hush-Money Trial Rewarded With Top Administration Jobs, by Zoe Tillman and Patricia Hurtado of Bloomberg
- New York Doesn’t Have Enough Housing. Why Is It So Expensive to Build?, by Mihir Zaveri of The New York Times
- Who Wants to Cover the Second Coming of Trump?, by Charlotte Klein of New York magazine
- Why Democrats’ abortion messaging failed to resonate in Texas, despite unpopular bans, by Eleanor Klibanoff of The Texas Tribune
Be Social
Don’t get ’em confused.
Chesty the Bulldog, official mascot of the Marine Corps #spotted in the senate
— K Tully-McManus (@ktullymcmanus) November 14, 2024
Poor Chesty endured at least a dozen people asking him if he was Babydog (not the same bulldog) pic.twitter.com/JpqDIX0hla
Tell Us Your Thoughts
Will Trump be more successful in making big changes in this term than he was in the last one?
Send your thoughts to newsletters@notus.org.