Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is projected to narrowly win her third-straight Senate election, defeating businessman and investor Eric Hovde in a key swing state for Democrats in her most competitive Senate race yet. It was her first time running on the same ballot as Donald Trump.
Throughout Tuesday night, Democrats and the campaign told NOTUS they remained confident in her ability to win. The Associated Press called the race Wednesday afternoon.
The razor-thin margin is a far cry from the margins she’s won by in the past. But it’s in line with the vast conservative shift seen nationally on Tuesday. Baldwin’s is a crucial win for Democrats, but they had already been projected to lose control of the chamber by the time her race was called.
“It is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” Tammy Baldwin said in a campaign statement declaring victory. “The people of Wisconsin have chosen someone who always puts Wisconsin first, someone who shows up, listens and works with everyone to get the job done.”
Wisconsin is a critical “blue wall” battleground state that would have been part of Kamala Harris’ easiest pathway to becoming president, and it was a key seat to Democrats’ efforts to maintain a Senate majority. Other Senate races in tougher environments like Ohio and Montana were seen as more likely to be decisive for overall control, but Democrats were counting on winning the Wisconsin race to hold their ground.
“This is definitely a very significant seat, and it’s one that Democrats absolutely want to hold on to,” Melissa Baldauff, a Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist, said in an interview ahead of Election Day. “It’s going to be very important for Democrats having control of the Senate.”
She also made a point of campaigning all across Wisconsin, which included reaching out to specific demographics like Milwaukee’s Black and Latino communities. She has consistently outperformed Democrats in the western and northern parts of the state by appealing to the interests of rural Wisconsin voters in the past.
She followed a similar playbook this election, making efforts to keep margins close in those parts of the state. While those margins appear to have grown according to preliminary results — in line with the broader national trend toward the GOP — Baldwin managed just enough to keep her office.
“Because she is unafraid to campaign anywhere, we see her do better in some of those smaller communities than other Democrats,” said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist.
One thing members of both parties will be taking a close look at in the coming weeks is the final tallies in WOW counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — which are historically GOP strongholds that have seen declining Republican support in recent years.
Baldwin also embraced the Democratic presidential nominee in the crucial state, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee during Harris’ first rally of her campaign in July.
Early summer polling heavily favored Baldwin, but recent polls showed the race tightening.
Hovde tried to ride MAGA energy from Trump being on the ballot: He released an ad that featured Baldwin calling Trump “one of the most offensive, hateful, unacceptable presidential candidates” and questioning the character of his supporters during a June 2016 Wisconsin Democratic Party event.
In October, Baldwin’s campaign walked back her past comments regarding Trump supporters. She also distanced herself from Biden after his poor debate performance and didn’t join him onstage when he visited Madison in July as the then-Democratic presidential nominee.
Baldwin prioritized agriculture in her campaign, touting her efforts to protect Wisconsin dairy farmers and focusing on the state’s timber economy. Her hyperfocus on issues directly impacting Wisconsinites likely helped her secure voters across the state.
“If Sen. Baldwin wins, I think it would just be a testament to, frankly, the effort she puts in as a senator, in terms of getting around the state and really trying to focus on hyperlocal issues when she’s in communities,” Mark Graul, a Republican operative, said in an interview in the lead-up to Election Day. “Frankly, not talking about the bigger, broader issues in Washington that don’t have as strong support in Wisconsin.”
Baldwin was able to maintain steady favorability ratings this cycle at a time when many Americans had a negative view of politics.
The Democratic Party made efforts to highlight the importance of her race, such as by giving her a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention. While onstage, she talked about her support of Medicare and Social Security. She criticized Trump for suggesting in March that he would make cuts to both programs while also giving tax breaks to billionaires and corporations.
“When I work to protect Medicare and Social Security, I do it with a personal knowledge of what those big programs meant in small but deeply meaningful ways to my grandparents,” Baldwin said during her speech. “And I know what they mean for your parents and your grandparents. Let’s be clear, that’s all at risk today.”
In 2012, Baldwin was elected to her first term with Barack Obama on the ticket, beating out Republican candidate and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson by more than 5 percentage points. She more than doubled her margin of victory in 2018, routing Republican Leah Vukmir by more than 10 points.
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Torrence Banks and Nuha Dolby are NOTUS reporters and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellows.