Republicans Aren’t Budging on ACA Subsidy Stance Even in the Face of Skyrocketing Premiums

Senate Republicans are holding the line as expiring health care subsidies are causing premiums to skyrocket: reopen the government, then we’ll talk.

“We’ve talked a lot about reforms, but we haven’t gotten specific, because our position is we’re really not going to get serious about this — I mean, even though there’s a lot of ideas out there — until the government gets reopened,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito said of Republicans’ position on Monday.

It’s a standoff with Democrats, as subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year. The issue became all the more pressing when open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act started over the weekend and recipients saw their premiums projected to increase by hundreds or thousands of dollars a month in 2026. Democrats have been unwilling to reopen the government without an extension of these subsidies, while Republicans insist the government must reopen before any deal on subsidies is even remotely on the table.

That conflict contradicts the general sense of optimism on the Hill on Monday evening, with members of both Democratic and Republican leadership suggesting an end to the shutdown could be near. Both Democrats and Republicans have shared scant details on why the mood has changed or what ideas are being floated in talks between parties.

If Democrats broadly are to be believed, Republicans would need to offer some degree of concessions on health care for the government to reopen. Many in the Democratic caucus theorized that open enrollment would help their case to Americans, with households beginning to see the tangible consequence of premiums rising.

Senate GOP leadership has said it would offer Democrats a stand-alone vote on extending the subsidies; Democrats say that’s still not enough.

“It’s got to be more,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin said Monday. “I mean, it’s got to be more than that.”

Several Republicans conceded that the premium increases were harsh, and signaled that they’d be open to discussing how to bring them down, though members continue to say they won’t negotiate with the government shut down.

Republican Sen. Josh Hawley said he’s not aware of any talks between Democrats and Republicans right now, but said that some of these increases “are just truly astronomical.”

“So it’s just not sustainable,” he told NOTUS. “We just can’t allow that.”

When asked what specific reforms might be palatable to Republicans, Hawley said income caps are one apparent area of agreement, saying, “Rich people don’t need to get the subsidies. I would say that’s probably a jumping off point.”

Sen. Jim Justice told NOTUS that he’s in favor of the subsidies expiring, but he’d be open to negotiations on reforms once the government is reopened.

“I think all of us would be…” Justice said. “The president is open-minded to be able to look at all this stuff, and is willing to, on Day 1, start meetings with the Democrats in regard. He’s said that over and over, that’s what we ought to be doing.”

Multiple Republican senators cast blame on the ACA in general, which has been the ire of Republicans since its inception. To hear them tell it, that’s why they’re looking to reform, rather than extend, the subsidies. Sen. John Hoeven, for one, said that “Obamacare is driving medical inflation.” Sen. John Kennedy said the increases show the failure of the ACA with or without subsidies.

“If you just extend the status quo, all you’re doing is putting fresh paint on rotten wood,” Kennedy told reporters Monday.

Thune told reporters Monday that he was “optimistic” a deal to reopen the government could be reached this week, but didn’t give details. The current House-passed continuing resolution is nearing its expiration date of Nov. 21, with Thune saying the legislation would need a new date before final passage.

Leadership hasn’t committed to an exact timeline, but Thune expressed openness to a date in January or even further out, saying, “The longer runway the better.”

Sen. Susan Collins, the Senate Appropriations Committee’s chair, echoed that sentiment Monday night: “There have been a lot of conversations on both sides of the aisle and across the aisle, and across the chambers, and I do believe that we are finally making progress … I’m cautiously hopeful that it will be resolved by the end of this week.”

At least one member of Democratic leadership, despite no apparent compromise with Republicans on their health care impasse, appeared to think the same.

“I sense that too,” Durbin told reporters of Thune suggesting the end of the shutdown may be near. “I guess maybe I’m reading a lot into it, but I’ve talked to a couple of my colleagues on the Democratic side who are in conversation. They tried before, and it didn’t work, and now they’re trying again, and they seem more optimistic.”