With Friends Like These...

Today’s notice: Capitol Hill misses Trump. The most redistricted man in America. Red states face a reckoning. Plus: A tension point for the DNC.

THE LATEST

Friendly fire. “The AFGE would not want us to cut a deal and then have Trump fire a bunch of people next week. If we cut a deal and then he did that, they would come to us and say, ‘What the hell were you guys thinking?’” Sen. Tim Kaine told NOTUS’ Oriana González yesterday after the American Federation of Government Employees sent out a statement saying it’s time for Democrats to end the shutdown.

Kaine admitted he had not talked to AFGE, the largest union representing federal workers, about exactly what that meant. His read was that the union would absolutely not want Democrats to stop demanding checks on Donald Trump in exchange for their votes on a spending bill. As in, the union would not want Democrats like him to cave, but rather to see Republicans cave because Democrats like him are fighting.

Turns out that was not the right read. Oriana talked to AFGE’s legislative director, Daniel Horowitz, and he said the House-passed CR — the very thing all the fuss has been about this whole time — was “an acceptable option.” To be sure, this is a significant political shift for the union, which up to now has blamed both sides for the shutdown. The new position is, effectively, asking Senate Democrats to do exactly what John Thune, Mike Johnson and Trump want them to do. (For the record, Kaine chalked AFGE’s new push up to “internal politics” at the union.)

What happens now: Democrats try to thread the needle of being on AFGE’s side, while also being uninterested in doing what the union is now suggesting they do. “They’re there to represent their members and their members’ interests,” Sen. Ruben Gallego told Oriana. “We’re going to be able to take care of a lot of these government employees, but what we’re not going to be able to deal with is the fact that 24 million families, American families, are going to have higher insurance rates starting Jan. 1.”

He clarified that he did not mean Affordable Care Act subsidies are a priority over the AFGE’s call to relieve government workers, but rather, “It’s a concurrent thing that we believe that you can do both.”

The pressure is mounting. It’s not just a union putting pressure on Democrats as the shutdown rolls on. NOTUS reached out to a slew of governors across the country about the short-term future of SNAP funding, and it does not look great. The USDA has said November benefits won’t get paid out if the government is still shut down. States can make up some of the loss, but not for very long. Some are suing to get funds released, but that can also take time.

“You’ve got to a pivot point here that I think many have looked at and said, ‘You know, that’s going to be the precipitating event.’ I hope so,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski said.

Open tabs: Trump says he underwent MRI during visit to Walter Reed (NBC); Hurricane Melissa collides with U.S. military mission in Caribbean (WaPo); Flights to LAX halted due to air traffic controller shortage (Politico); Tillis Calls on GOP to Embrace ACA Tax Credit Two-Year Extension (Bloomberg)

From the Hill

Come home, dad! “Obviously, we’re pretty stuck here,” Sen. Roger Marshall told NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson. “President Trump, one of his greatest traits is the ability to negotiate. So I think at some point in time, when the moment is right, he’ll be able to step in and put the pieces together.”

Trump is in Asia for the rest of the week. Many people on the Hill say that means no real progress on the shutdown will be made until he gets back — hopefully with some treats he picked up at the airport.

From the campaign trail

The redistricted man speaks: “People across the country are watching what North Carolina has done, but it’s only for one part of the state, just the east. Leave us alone. We’re resilient. We’ll figure it out. We’re OK electing Donald Trump and Don Davis. We’re OK with that,” Rep. Don Davis told NOTUS’ Christa Dutton.

It’s the third redistricting for Davis — in three terms. He still won’t say which new district he’ll run in next year. But he says his strategy won’t change. “I’m going to be myself,” he told Christa.

From the states

The ACA subsidy fight would hit red states harder: “The people who are active on this issue, and Democrats in particular, will say premiums are going to skyrocket, without saying, ‘Premiums for the fraction of people who are buying insurance through the exchanges will skyrocket,’” Bill Hammond, a New York health policy expert, told NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak. Those numbers are lower in blue states.

Alabama, Georgia, Texas and Florida would be among the states with the largest increases in uninsured people if the subsidies expire, Shifra reports.

From the DNC

How much identity politics? States have until mid-January to submit proposals to be early 2028 presidential primary states, the DNC’s rules committee decided yesterday. The criteria will include whether the states have diverse groups of voters.

One tension point? Whether the DNC’s criteria should explicitly list which minority groups states should highlight. “Is my party still willing to say that I’m important?” DNC member Leah Daughtry said, decrying “podcast boys” and others for moving Democrats away from identity politics. “Or are we glossing me over to be palatable to independents and this one and that one and the other one?”

Donna Brazile countered that specifying would run the risk of leaving some groups out. The final criteria language didn’t explicitly list specific minority groups. It passed unanimously.

NEW ON NOTUS

Indiana enters the redistricting battle: Gov. Mike Braun yesterday called a special legislative session to address Trump’s demand to redraw his state’s congressional maps. There’s just one problem: Republicans in the Legislature said last week that they did not have the votes.

“Once this goes public, you’ll have people getting off the fence, and you’re going to see the votes will be there,” Braun claimed during a radio interview.

Who watches the watchers? California officials announced yesterday that they would deploy their own observers to watch over federal election monitors the Trump administration is sending to the state for next week’s vote.

“We cannot be naive,” state AG Rob Bonta said during a virtual news conference. “All indications, all arrows show that this is a tee up for something more dangerous in the 2026 midterms — and maybe beyond.”

More: Bessent Names the Trump Admin’s Five Finalists to Replace Powell as Fed Chair, by Amelia Benavides-Colón

Trump Admin Says Democrats Can’t Visit ICE Facilities During Shutdown, by Jackie Llanos

NOT US

• How the Biden White House Laid the Groundwork for Trump, According to Former Staff, by Greg Sargent for The New Republic
  
• Left-wing ideas have wrecked Democrats’ brand, new report warns, by David Weigel for Semafor
  
• See what Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo and her staff are asking ChatGPT, by John Lomax V and Amelia Winger for the Houston Chronicle
  
• Why Biden’s White House Press Secretary Is Leaving the Democratic Party, by Isaac Chotiner for The New Yorker

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