What Does Victory Look Like?

One and Done? “That’s just the truth: We don’t know how they will respond,” a senior administration official told NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright in the hours after Donald Trump announced U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities – and told the world that the American military is done with offensive action if Iranian leaders do what they’re told.

The president cannot promise that this is over, which means the impact of this moment on American politics cannot actually be measured yet. But Team Trump strongly feels they threaded this needle.

What that sounds like: “If this was two weeks ago, they would have, of course, responded with immense force. Right now they are significantly weakened,” the official said of Iran.

The image being projected: There is no fear of the base. The official: “He was pursuing diplomacy while preparing this very complex operation at the same time. But it was always his instinct he was going to need to move forward” with strikes.

About that MAGA civil war: The White House declined to offer a readout of calls or conversations Trump has had with upset members of his movement after he entered a Middle East war – something many of those allies say he promised he would not do.

But Sunday, a public response emerged. “I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America’s national security objectives,” JD Vance said on Meet The Press after insisting the U.S. was not at war.

The admin says allies should see this as ending something old, not starting something new. NOTUS’ Reese Gorman obtained the talking points the White House sent Hill Republicans. “Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terror and has targeted Americans since the regime took power in 1979.”

Some Never Trump Iran hawks are going with this line, too. “President Trump did the right thing for America,” 1.0’s fired National Security Adviser John Bolton posted. “Now, on to regime change.”

Trump had already arrived there by Sunday night, contradicting Vance and his allies on Truth Social: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

The very big ‘if’: “Overall I’m skeptical it will have short term political consequences for Trump,” a Democratic strategist texted NOTUS’ Alex Roarty. “Could become a problem for congressional Rs in a midterm, depending on if engagement gets deeper and worse. But likely not just for the bombs.”

The Coalition of the Unwilling is so far mostly Democrats who said Trump’s decision was unconstitutional or dangerous, or both, and longtime anti-interventionist Republicans like Rep. Thomas Massie (who Trump called out by name Sunday).

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene posted “this is not our fight,” in keeping with her opposition to the strikes, but also condemned Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for suggesting the strikes were grounds for impeachment. Republican leaders in Congress lined up in support of the strikes and the president’s power to order them, NOTUS’ Hill team reports.

Democrats are naturally in some disarray on this. Rep. Steny Hoyer is the most senior Democrat on a short list who put out statements supporting the strikes but not Trump himself.

On Capitol Hill, the Jim Justice Litmus Test: Want to know what’s going to happen this week with reconciliation? Look to Sen. Jim Justice. The West Virginia Republican hasn’t said how he plans to vote. If he’s a “no,” it’s widely seen as a sign that Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are both no votes too, NOTUS’ Ursula Perano and Helen Huiskes report.

Justice’s concern: Rural hospitals. “I’ve got major concerns,” Justice said last week. “Our rural hospitals are going to have a tough time. That’s all there’s to it, a really tough time, and they depend on this.”

Meanwhile, Josh Hawley is sounding different. After loudly disagreeing with how Republicans approached Medicaid, he’s had some nicer things to say about the bill these days.

“I’m glad that there are no Medicaid benefit cuts, that’s good. That’s what the president said … but the most important thing in this big, beautiful bill that we need to get to the president’s desk are the big, beautiful tax cuts for working people,” Hawley said on Fox News last week.

The One Comment That Sums Up Republicans’ Legislative Problems: Lawmakers love to say they can walk and chew gum, but that’s proving tough in the Senate with two tough bills in the works.

When NOTUS Riley Rogerson asked Sen. Jerry Moran whether he would support the rescissions bill, he summed up the GOP’s challenges in his response: “How have you moved on from reconciliation?”

The Left’s New Legal Strategy … is actually an old conservative legal precedent Democrats loved to hate. Democratic legal groups and attorneys general are challenging Trump by questioning the power of the executive branch through the “major questions” doctrine.

Will it work? “We just don’t know where the Supreme Court will end up going, but I think we should put them on the spot and ask them if they only support this when it’s applied against Democratic presidents,” Berkeley legal scholar Dan Garber told NOTUS’ Claire Heddles.

New on NOTUS

• Pentagon Says Trump’s Strikes ‘Devastated’ Iranian Nuclear Program: Pete Hegseth held his first press briefing Sunday.
• JD Vance Touts Court Ruling Allowing Trump to Keep Troops in LA: The vice president toured a federal operations center in California Friday.
• Trump Warns of ‘Far Greater’ Attacks if Iran Doesn’t ‘Make Peace’: “There’s no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight, not even close,” Trump said from the White House.

Not Us

• Are You a $300,000 Writer? Inside The Atlantic’s extremely expensive hiring spree., by Charlotte Klein for New York Magazine
• A judge sided with Trump. Behind the scenes, he was lobbying for a nomination., by Hailey Fuchs for Politico
• Missteps, Confusion and ‘Viral Waste’: The 14 Days That Doomed U.S.A.I.D., by Christopher Flavelle, Nicholas Nehamas and Julie Tate for The New York Times.
• ‘It Felt Like Kidnapping,’ Khalil Says in First Interview Since Release, by Jonah E. Bromwich for The New York Times

Week Ahead

• Attorney General Pam Bondi is on the Hill to testify about the Department of Justice’s budget starting Monday.
• It’s the NATO Summit Tuesday and Wednesday in The Hague, Netherlands, where there’s already a lot of attention around how the Trump administration is messaging on Ukraine.
• Tuesday is election day for the New York City primary race for mayor.
• It’s a big week for landmark court case anniversaries. Tuesday is the third anniversary of the Dobbs decision. Anti-abortion activists are gathering in Washington, D.C., June 27–29 for the National Celebrate Life Conference.
• Thursday is the 10-year anniversary of the Obergefell case.
• Speaking of SCOTUS, there’s an opinion day Thursday.
• Susan Monarez, Trump’s pick to run the CDC, will get her confirmation hearing Wednesday in front of the Senate’s Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

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