Today’s notice: The NOTUS newsletter is back with all the news you missed while you were in a food coma. The rubber hits the road tomorrow for Mike Johnson. And even if Republicans can elect a speaker, can they get anything else done?
Republicans Face the Gauntlet
So, where were we?
When Congress left town for the holidays, Mike Johnson had just narrowly threaded the needle to convince most House Republicans, Donald Trump, Elon Musk and every Democrat to back a stopgap funding bill and avert a government shutdown. It was messy, at times embarrassing, but it happened.
Although Republicans have spent Johnson’s 14-month term openly airing their grievances, he has kept the government running, repeatedly collaborating with Democrats to advance must-pass legislation. It was often Johnson’s painful last resort but his only move as far as functional governance was concerned.
But even if Johnson hangs onto the gavel — a massive if — that strategy isn’t going to fly anymore.
Republicans are bullish about making the most of their trifecta to secure hard-right wins on the border, energy and defense via reconciliation. They also have to fund the government in March, increase the debt ceiling and extend Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Plus, Republicans revealed 12 stand-alone legislative priorities in yesterday’s rules package that would, for example, define sex as solely based on “reproductive biology” for Title IX purposes, impose stricter criminal penalties on migrants who illegally cross the border, restrict federal funding to sanctuary cities and prohibit a moratorium on fracking.
Winning Democratic support for those initiatives is likely impossible. It also might defeat the purpose of a “mandate” for many conservatives, who see their November wins as an indication that the GOP ought to ignore Democrats rather than work with them.
But with a paper-thin margin, a cadre of perennial GOP naysayers in the conference and an unpredictable president in the White House, getting anything through Congress without Democrats might be impossible.
Republicans across Congress are feeling the strain already. Conservative Rep. Tom Tiffany was blunt: “Our work is cut out for us.”
—Riley Rogerson | Read the story.
The Republicans Who Love to Hate Johnson
Tomorrow’s speaker election is poised to be the ultimate test of Johnson’s leadership. But even armed with the coveted Trump endorsement, his prospects of being sworn in as speaker a second time look murky, at best.
Rep. Thomas Massie, who has served as Johnson’s top gadfly since the early days of his speakership, has already pledged his opposition. He’s just one member, but since the GOP only controls 219 seats and Johnson needs a majority of votes — the dreaded 218 with full attendance — every member counts.
As NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reports, others are waiting in the wings. Reps. Andy Biggs, Eli Crane, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Andy Harris, Chip Roy and Victoria Spartz are all playing the field.
“I mean, let’s face it, he’s done a lot of stuff that has driven me crazy,” Biggs told NOTUS.
Front Page
- Why Donald Trump’s Judicial Picks Will Be the Most Powerful Judges in Decades: SCOTUS shifted a lot of power to the courts.
- Katie Britt Is Becoming One of the Most Powerful Senators in the Trump Era: Republicans think Britt could be a direct line between the White House and the Senate.
- What the Boom in AI Means for Donald Trump’s Energy Agenda: Trump will have to address an already strained electrical grid.
- Inside Bob Casey’s Final Days in the Senate: Casey is known for working within the system and reaching across the aisle. Does that approach still have a place in the Senate?
A Trump White House That Learned a Thing or Two
If the public shaming, private backstabbing and around-the-clock firings were any indication, the first Trump White House hardly seemed like a fun place to work.
As NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright reports, back in 2016, the Trump administration was hamstrung by infighting between three groups: the Trump “Originals” like Steve Bannon, RNC members aligned with Reince Priebus and a third group of left-leaning New Yorkers like Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Trumpworld insiders say this time around, with Susie Wiles at the reins, the White House will look nothing like that.
“2016 and 2024 are night and day,” a former Trump administration official told Jasmine. A GOP official added that, while factions exist in Trump’s 2024 circle, “There’s just a lot more of a process to basically prevent people from just making a mess of it all.”
A New Climate Movement
The incoming Trump administration will surely push out the climate groups that are close to President Joe Biden. NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports that the conservative climate groups are ready to move in.
Almost none of them use the words “climate change.” Some oppose environmental regulations because they think they slow green energy development. Many support nuclear energy and permitting reform. As Anna reports, Trump’s presidency will see a tremendous increase in demand for energy, which his natural gas agenda may not be enough to support.
A ‘Marred’ Legacy
You don’t usually see Democrats kicking their own on the way out. President Biden’s record on foreign policy appears to be the exception.
“We worked so closely with him on domestic economic policy and feel like he had such an incredible legacy,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal said. “But I think it is marred by how the deaths in Gaza unfolded, the lack of a cease-fire, the continuing destruction of settlements in the West Bank. I mean, all the violence that we’ve seen and his inability to empathize on it.”
The Year in NOTUS
Can you believe NOTUS has been publishing stories for over a year? We can’t either. Here’s some of our 2024 hits you may have missed — or want to read again.
- ‘Broken Since the Beginning’: What Went Wrong Inside the Harris Campaign
- ‘The Patrón’: How Henry Cuellar and His Family Control Webb County, Texas
- Inside the Unglamorous Life of a Republican Attending Trump’s Trial
- The Human Rights World Has a Sexual Harassment Problem
- The Congressional Black Caucus Has Biden’s Back — Publicly
- ‘It’s Really Shameful’: House Republicans Accuse Rep. Troy Nehls of Stolen Valor Over Military Award Pin
Will 2025 Be the Year for Democrats?
With Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Mike Waltz up for administration jobs and Matt Gaetz out of Congress, there are a host of special elections in 2025. The seats are pretty red — but they could provide Democrats an opportunity to start rebuilding after 2024.
Can they get to the 2017 and 2018 levels of voter enthusiasm?
“There might not be very much Trump fatigue in their district, which there really clearly was in my district, and I benefited from that. But I do think it gives a Democratic challenger a chance to step forward and make their own unique case about themselves,” Conor Lamb, a former Pennsylvania Democratic lawmaker who flipped a seat in a 2018 special election race decided by less than 1 percentage point, told NOTUS.
Be Social
Uh-oh.
An omen https://t.co/K40civcaZ1
— Daniella Diaz (@DaniellaMicaela) January 1, 2025
Tell Us Your Thoughts
Should Congress have a New Year’s resolution?
Send your thoughts to newsletters@notus.org.
Thank you for reading! If you like this edition of the NOTUS newsletter, please forward it to a friend. If this newsletter was shared with you, please subscribe (it’s free!).