Two days before the speaker election, Mike Johnson appears to be in trouble.
While only one House Republican has pledged his opposition to Johnson — Rep. Thomas Massie — plenty of others seem doubtful about supporting the speaker for another term, including Andy Biggs, Eli Crane, Paul Gosar, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Andy Harris, Chip Roy and Victoria Spartz.
Roy has even reportedly begun calling around to other House Republicans to build support for Rep. Jim Jordan.
“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues,” Roy said Tuesday on Fox Business, “because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda.”
Despite Donald Trump’s “Complete & Total Endorsement” on Monday, more than enough Republicans don’t sound convinced. And, as usual, the Freedom Caucus has emerged as a key obstacle for the speaker.
Harris, the House Freedom Caucus chair, said in a statement on X after the government funding vote that he is “now undecided on what House Leadership will look like in the 119th Congress.” (During the vote on the continuing resolution, Harris had a spirited discussion with Johnson at the back of the House chamber.)
When NOTUS asked Biggs about Johnson, the former HFC chair and still influential member of the group, said he would use the holiday break to “ruminate” over what’s happened since Johnson took over as speaker.
“I’ll actually have a few days off, so I can actually assess kind of what all went bad and why I think it went bad,” Biggs said. “I mean, let’s face it, he’s done a lot of stuff that has driven me crazy,” adding that the government funding fight “has been a disaster.”
Yet another Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Ralph Norman, refused to endorse Johnson, saying, “It depends on who else wants it.”
But Norman also emphasized that Johnson needed to call people and assure them he wouldn’t let what happened during the funding fight happen again.
Sure enough, Johnson and his allies have been conducting outreach to members who are skeptical about supporting him and hearing them out, according to two sources familiar with the outreach.
Still, Norman wasn’t so sure Johnson had it in him to be a strong speaker.
“What Pelosi did right was she would break arms and legs. That’s not in him,” Norman said.
Yet another Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Michael Cloud, told NOTUS that Republicans had to “restructure how we are working as a Congress.”
“Or we will continue to have the same results that we’ve always had from the swamp,” he continued.
He added that he considers Johnson a friend and said he believes his heart is in the right place, but he stopped short of endorsing him for speaker.
Cloud also issued a starker warning on X.
“Come January, we will need to revisit how Congress operates to ensure it is structured to deliver President Trump’s MAGA agenda,” he wrote. “Whether that requires personnel changes, process reforms, or both will be a critical discussion we must have.”
Of course, not every Freedom Caucus member sounds oppositional to Johnson, who was never officially part of the group but used to regularly attend HFC meetings.
Rep. Eric Burlison — who expressed strong discontent with the speaker during the recent funding fight — said Johnson “demonstrated leadership by bringing us into the room” and “hearing us out.”
“So he went up a notch in my mind,” Burlison said.
But Johnson’s opposition isn’t just coming from the Freedom Caucus.
When NOTUS asked Rep. Cory Mills whether Johnson should be worried about his job, Mills had a simple answer: “Yes.”
“I’m losing confidence with each day,” Mills told reporters recently. “And I think that we have a lot of our colleagues that are losing confidence. We’re not sticking to the principles and the values in which we say that we fight for.”
Other Republicans have also recently sounded frustrated with Johnson.
On the final day the House was in session in December, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis told reporters there had been “zero communication from leadership” about the spending standoff.
“Something should change before Jan. 3,” Malliotakis said.
Asked how frustrated she was with Johnson specifically, she had an ominous response. “How does it sound?” she said as she walked away.
Of course, Johnson’s bid has already been aided by Trump, who officially endorsed Johnson for the speakership on Monday.
“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
That may help with some Republicans. Rep. David Valadao, who supports Johnson, told NOTUS before Trump’s endorsement that the president-elect’s sign-off meant Johnson “should be fine.”
But Valadao acknowledged that “getting 218 in this conference today is not an easy task for anybody.”
When the House returns on Friday, the margin is expected to be 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats — with former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s seat vacant, though Gaetz has also toyed with returning and renouncing his resignation.
But if, as expected, the margin is 219-215, Johnson could only lose one Republican vote and be speaker, if no Democrats support him.
Massie has already signaled he intends to vote for a candidate, so Johnson would need any other naysayers to not vote. (A speaker needs a majority of members voting, meaning he could lose three Republicans if those Republicans simply sat out the election.)
But with so many Republicans refusing to support Johnson publicly, the opposition could be far larger than anyone is acknowledging. Johnson may, in fact, be much further from a majority than he believes. And Republicans may be setting themselves up for another speaker fiasco that could last days or weeks.
Right now, Johnson is benefitting from the fact that no other Republican appears to be running against him. Plus, it isn’t clear that he can’t win the gavel.
But should Johnson come up short, there are plenty of other Republicans who may be interested in the position, including Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Rep. Byron Donalds or Jordan.
For now, there are a lot of Republicans waiting and seeing, refusing to oppose Johnson if there isn’t another candidate in the race.
“I don’t have a better alternative,” Rep. Rich McCormick told NOTUS. “And I’m not a guy who just fires people without having an alternative.”
But asked whether Johnson should be concerned, McCormick was clear: He should be.
“Because I think anybody who’s in that position, when you’re about to go for election and you had the fight that you had, should be concerned,” he said.
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Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.