Madman Theory

Today’s notice: Have the Iranians figured Trump out? Growing animus between the White House and Senate Republicans. The DSA gets another big win. Democrats search for identity in New York. Public health funding hits a roadblock. Plus: Obama’s tan suit makes a comeback.

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THE LATEST

Testing out the “madman theory”: Donald Trump has oscillated between wild extremes during the course of his war with Iran, threatening “total decimation” one moment and suggesting our adversary should have an arsenal of missiles the next. Now, the president’s signature (and at times intentional) brand of unpredictability will be put to the test during 60 days of technical talks, NOTUS’ Akbar Shahid Ahmed and Jasmine report.

The negotiations will test the “madman theory” of foreign policy the president leans on: assuming adversaries will cave because they don’t know how far he’ll actually go.

White House officials have long said Trump’s unpredictability is an essential part of his dealmaking — the main reason he’s been able to get rivals to concede in ways other presidents haven’t. But now Trump has to embrace a framework for talks that overwhelmingly benefit Iran, and his personal volatility is unlikely to tilt the discussions in the U.S.’s favor.

Iran, experts say, has learned to focus on what Trump does and not just what he says. And after two U.S.-Israeli assaults in less than two years since the president’s return to office, Iran has seen that depleting stocks of U.S. weaponry “didn’t move the needle for Trump,” but hiking gas prices by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz did, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told NOTUS.

JD Vance postponed his trip to Switzerland late Thursday to meet with his Iranian counterparts, with a White House spokesperson saying, “the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now the Vice President is not departing tonight.”

Open tabs: The paint is already peeling in Trump’s renovated Reflecting Pool (Reuters); Scores Fall Ill at Air Force Base After Hegseth Makes Flu Vaccine Optional (NYT); Kash Patel accused of directing $1m to ‘slush fund’ to pay bonuses to loyalist agents (Guardian); Government can’t restrict gun ownership over marijuana use, Supreme Court rules (WaPo)

From the Hill

*Tension overload* is the current status of the relationship between Trump and Senate Republicans after the president’s latest move to pull his director of national intelligence pick from the scheduled confirmation hearing. It’s moments like this that leave Senate Majority Leader John Thune in the lurch, NOTUS’ Al Weaver, Jasmine and Reese Gorman report.

“We take two steps forward, but then keep having to check to see if there are any landmines around,” said one source familiar with Trump and Thune’s dynamic.

Trump has grown frustrated with the lack of movement on his priorities: getting rid of the filibuster and the “blue slip” process and passing the SAVE America Act. Thune has said repeatedly there aren’t enough votes for any of it.

Meanwhile, rank-and-file Republicans feel disrespected and are facing a White House they believe doesn’t care about the party’s midterm prospects. Long story short: There are a lot of grievances with no immediate remedy.

From the campaign trail

A Mamdani-style candidate is on track to become D.C.’s next mayor. Janeese Lewis George just put the Democratic Socialists of America one step closer to another major victory after New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s successful campaign led to a significant increase in the group’s membership, NOTUS’ Violet Jira reports. The DSA spent hundreds of hours door-knocking and canvassing for both Lewis George and Aparna Raj, who’s running for Ward 1’s Council seat.

“We’ve had, I think, close to 300 unique volunteers coming out, knocking doors in the rain and the cold and the heat,” said Kurtis Hagans, chair of the Metro D.C. DSA’s steering committee.

Democratic identity is on the ballot — or at least it is in New York City, where next week voters will choose between Darializa Avila Chevalier and Rep. Adriano Espaillat. The Democratic primary for the 13th Congressional District has become one of the defining races in the battle between progressives and the establishment, the fight between younger Democrats trying to ascend to higher office and older ones trying to stay put. NOTUS’ Manuela Silva spent some time with the insurgent Avila Chevalier as she campaigned.

“Folks here are very hungry for a different type of politics, and we proved last year that we can do it,” Avila Chevalier said, referring to Mamdani’s win. “Now we’re ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.”

Meanwhile, Espaillat has leaned on experience as his reelection pitch. “As an appropriator, I know budget and legislation,” he told Manuela. “You’ve got to know legislation, also somebody that knows public policy, that ensures that we implement good public policy.”

From the agencies

NOTUS scoop: Suicide hotlines. Opioid recovery centers. Response to global disease outbreaks. Those are just some of the public health initiatives waiting for an onslaught of federal funding, which is currently held up due to a new political review process at Health and Human Services, NOTUS’ Eric Katz and Paige Winfield Cunningham report.

To get congressionally allocated money out the door, the funds have to first clear an AI screening that catches keywords the Trump administration has gone to war with like “culture,” “harm reduction,” “gender” and “transgender.” If those are found, they’re sent to an HHS assistant secretary for approval before going to Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s desk. And then it would need to go to the White House Office of Management and Budget for final clearance. Those impacted say the backlog puts key health programs at risk and strains the system.

“If we start to see these delays extended because of these approvals, things will have to stop,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “There’s no off-ramp. It just stops.”

NOTUS PERSPECTIVES

Today at NOTUS Perspectives, Damon Young on how the Knicks’ championship win created unstoppable joy that maybe, just maybe, could save the country. And Dana Milbank on Vance, Trump and their week of so much losing.

NEW ON NOTUS

Does anyone remember Obama’s tan suit? The star-studded crowd gathered on Chicago’s South Side for the opening of the new Barack Obama library did, NOTUS’ Torrie Herrington reports. The ensemble was the “it” accessory for many in attendance, including Stephen Colbert, Rep. Bill Foster (D-Illinois), NBA legend Isiah Thomas, David Letterman and even a few local politicians like Illinois state Rep. La Shawn K. Ford.

Unfortunately, the infamous suit itself isn’t in the library’s collection, Obama White House adviser Valerie Jarrett told NPR this week. “President Obama gave it away when he was cleaning out his closet.”

More: Lawmakers Say Education Department Changes Will Leave Students ‘Lost,’ by Adora Brown

NOT US

• The Democratic Base Is Angry, by Elaine Godfrey for The Atlantic
• A Wild Jaunt Across Europe With Trump’s Tourism Czar, the Aussie Expat Formerly Known as “Nick Adams, Alpha Male,” by Aidan McLaughlin for Vanity Fair
• Alexander Hamilton, the Wrong Founder, by William Hogeland for The Nation
• Everyone in Trump’s Cabinet Is Eating Sauerkraut, by Natalie Andrews and Liz Essley Whyte for The Wall Street Journal

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Sound on.

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The newsletter was produced by Kelly Poe, Brett Bachman, Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton. Photo by Jacquelyn Martin/AP.