Today’s notice: Congress is not in a great place. A surprise Trump plan to end the war in Gaza. Guess who gets to keep working in a shutdown. And: How will Democrats sell the shutdown?
THE LATEST
‘Crappy.’ That’s how Sen. Lisa Murkowski yesterday described the mood in Congress as it lurched toward a government shutdown.
Conversations on the Hill have turned from whether a government shutdown will happen to how long it might last, the NOTUS Hill team reports.
This is a political high point for the progressive groups who have wanted a moment like this since Trump 2.0 got underway (more on that below).
But it’s a real low point for the electeds living through it. “Every day is like a dog year. It’s exhausting,” Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove said.
What didn’t happen yesterday: a deal to avert a shutdown. Nothing emerged from the long-delayed, much hyped meeting between Republican and Democratic leadership and Donald Trump at the White House.
What won’t make negotiations easier: Trump last night posted an inexplicable, AI-generated video making fun of Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. Jeffries promptly hit back on X by posting a photo of Trump with his arm around Jeffrey Epstein.
What’s happening tomorrow: In a closed-door caucus meeting Monday night, the House minority leader told House Democrats to attend the chamber’s informal pro forma session, NOTUS’ Oriana González reports. It’s part of the ongoing Democratic plan to call out Mike Johnson for adjourning the House after passing the continuing resolution.
What’s almost definitely happening after that: It starts with “sh” and ends with “utdown.”
Open tabs: YouTube to Pay $24.5 Million to Settle Trump Lawsuit (WSJ); Health Department Moves to Block Harvard From Future Research Grants (NYT); Newsom signs first-in-nation AI safety law (Politico); ESPN Football Analyst ‘Considering’ a Run for Senate (NOTUS)
From the White House
An ultimatum: The White House released a 20-point “plan” to end the war in Gaza that called for land redevelopment, the release of Israeli hostages, the disarmament of Hamas and more. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they were close to a deal. As for Hamas…
Trump: “If Hamas rejects the deal … you know, Bibi, you’d have my full backing to do what you would have to do.”
Netanyahu: “If Hamas rejects your plan, Mr. President, or if they supposedly accept it and then basically do everything to counter it, then Israel will finish the job by itself.”
From the agencies
No RIF for the RIFfers. The White House has promised mass layoffs if the government shuts down, which, as NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports, means a new kind of government worker has been deemed “excepted” from the furloughs: the ones handling the layoffs.
At least one agency is claiming “exemption”: “I wanted to check in because there are some media reports that if there’s a government shutdown, some federal workers may be permanently fired. I was able to ensure an exemption, because we are in the business of public safety,” FDA Commissioner Marty Makary told staff in an emailed video, NOTUS’ Margaret Manto reports.
Contingency plans began rolling out Monday. For example, the IRS said it could function for five days in a shutdown using Inflation Reduction Act money.
From the states
“Jackbooted thugs”: That’s how Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois described the surge of ICE agents he says arrived in Chicago over the weekend to carry out the Trump administration’s planned immigration operation dubbed “Operation Midway Blitz.” He urged residents to remain peaceful and not give Trump an excuse to escalate the situation.
“All of this has been aimed at causing chaos and mayhem in the hopes of creating a pretext to deploy military troops to Chicago,” Pritzker added.
Louisiana’s governor is trying out a different tack. “Tonight we’re sending the Department of War a request to send the National Guard, asking them to deploy the National Guard here in Louisiana into our cities like New Orleans and Baton Rouge and others,” Jeff Landry, a Republican, told Fox News’ Sean Hannity last night.
THE BIG ONE
How to message a shutdown: “I don’t think this is a hard message to communicate at all,” Kristen Crowell, the executive director of Fair Share America, told NOTUS as Democrats get ready to sell the government shutdown many of them have been thinking about since March to the public.
Her plain message for communicating what the shutdown is about to frustrated independents and Republicans, as she did all summer on a 17-state bus tour of red districts: “All (Republicans) need to do is get off their knees and stand up to Donald Trump, and we could end some of this bullshit.”
Of course, that’s easy to say. Democrats and their allies are not known for rowing in the same direction, particularly during Trump 2.0. Strategists from outside pressure groups are now pivoting from attacking Democratic leaders to supporting them during the shutdown.
How can Dems win this? Message discipline. “The most impactful things are how this is a response to affordability and health care,” one Democratic-aligned strategist working in the field against Republicans said. “Everything else is secondary to those two.”
Getting out there. Elected officials talking to regular voters, a lot, is key to winning the shutdown, one strategist working with a pressure group said. “I would encourage them to consider trying some new stuff.”
Care and feeding. The base groups understand a shutdown is a scary, heavy lift for some Democrats, especially moderate senators. So they plan to give them regular “IRL validation,” as one official put it. That means a heavy emphasis on testimonials from people grateful that the party is fighting for lower health care costs.
NEW ON NOTUS
Oklahoma tribal politics: The governor of the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes is singling out Rep. Frank Lucas for blocking a transfer of federal land to tribal control through use of the appropriations process, NOTUS’ Em Luetkemeyer reports. Lucas says he’s requesting $16 million for upgrades to a research facility.
But the tribes see the request as aimed squarely at blocking land they have been trying to get from the federal government for 150 years.
NOT US
- Military leaders voice concern over Hegseth’s new Pentagon strategy, by Noah Robertson, Tara Copp, Alex Horton and Dan Lamothe for The Washington Post
- Trump and Comey: An Escalating Conflict With No Off-Ramp, by Maggie Haberman for The New York Times
- What Does MAGA Taste Like? By Adam Platt for Grub Street
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