Today’s notice: Institutional independence is in question. The extent of DOGE savings, also in question. One thing nobody questions: the bliss of retirement.
Independence Tests
Trumpian unpredictability has reached the Federal Reserve.
“That’s a case that people are talking about a lot,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday of a pending decision from the Supreme Court on how much sway President Donald Trump can hold over the independent National Labor Relations Board. “I don’t think that that decision will apply to the Fed — but I don’t know.”
The case, which is about NLRB members who the Court has at least temporarily allowed Trump to fire, is central to just how much independence nominally independent agencies can have from the White House. As NOTUS’ Claire Heddles writes, the answer might be… less than people like Powell had thought!
If last week was a test for Trump — between Congress’ shaky budget framework and a tanking market — this one is proving to be one for bedrock institutions like the Fed, FTC and NLRB, and even outside staples like Big Law.
Powell has been one of the few bold-faced D.C. characters to persistently refuse to bend to Trump, who has been openly insisting the Fed reduce interest rates. Any hits to the Fed’s independence has the potential to rock the economy… globally.
Independent institution heads like Powell don’t need to look too far to see what’s at stake. As Big Law is finding out now, willingly ceding independence to the White House can turn into a pure headache, with unforeseen twists (which, realistically, everyone can foresee — we’re in year 10 of this, there are always twists).
—Matt Berman | Read Claire’s story.
DOGE’s Latest Target: DOGE
Elon Musk is the richest man on Earth, something you can only become by being at least halfway decent at counting. But as it turns out, Musk is a little hazy on the numbers at the Department of Government Efficiency — at least, that’s what the constant changes to the savings amounts listed on DOGE’s website suggest.
On Tuesday alone, DOGE removed around $962 million in previously claimed cuts from its website and upped the savings numbers on hundreds of other listings, NOTUS’ Mark Alfred reports.
Musk has significantly reduced his far-reaching dreams for DOGE, saying at a cabinet meeting last week that his savings would total $150 billion, not the $1 trillion figure he talked about in January.
And even that much-lower savings goal seems to come from DOGE’s signature mystery math. Shortly before that cabinet meeting, the DOGE website’s total claimed savings coincidentally jumped from an estimated $140 billion to $150 billion — even without any new contract, grant or lease cancellations, Mark writes.
The overall jump in savings is interesting considering it’s happened just as DOGE unlisted a big batch of savings from its website. That includes now-scrubbed $367 million in claimed savings from a contract with a nonprofit to provide legal services to unaccompanied migrant children.
Front Page
- A Federal Judge Found Probable Cause That Trump Officials Acted in Contempt of Court: “The Constitution does not tolerate willful disobedience of judicial orders,” Judge James Boasberg wrote.
- Karoline Leavitt’s Campaign Owes Hundreds of Thousands to Donors — But Has Refunded Her Family: The White House press secretary refunded about $12,000 of the more than $320,000 she still owes from her congressional race.
- Democrats Want Access to El Salvador’s Mega Prison Holding Abrego Garcia: Several Republicans and Trump officials have visited for what Rep. Jamie Raskin called “right-wing photo ops.”
- Fed Chair Says Trump’s Tariffs Will Likely Lead to Higher Unemployment and Inflation: “The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects,” Powell said.
Stefanik’s Well-Executed Trial Balloon
Rep. Elise Stefanik is considering a run for governor of New York, which is big news. NY pols have been operating on the assumption that Rep. Mike Lawler would be the GOP nominee, and coverage has been focused on how he balances running statewide without clashing with Trump. Stefanik would not have that problem, as NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz and Reese Gorman report. Trump allies are “pushing” her to run, and of course she was almost a member of the president’s cabinet (which could be a huge issue in the general election, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves).
If she’s actually gonna do this, people interested in supporting her already seem to have one aspect of the campaign under control: the media. “Sources familiar” managed to get this story published in multiple outlets (NOTUS included) Wednesday, most publishing within 30 minutes of each other. I have no idea who the sources are, that’s above my paygrade here. But it’s a real feat of media strategy to flood the zone with these two “sources familiar,” who conveniently note that Stefanik already has $10 million in her campaign account.
This is not to say the reporting isn’t good — it is! I’m simply pointing out that it takes real political skill to strategically leak this to a bunch of reporters in a way that gets them to write about it. If Stefanik is entering this race, she’s coming with a shrewd team.
—Evan McMorris-Santoro | Read Daniella and Reese’s story.
The Joy of Missing Out
What does a former member of Congress’ day look like? A good chunk of it, it seems, is dedicated to thinking about how excited they are to not be in the Capitol anymore.
NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson spoke to four recently retired House members who all said they don’t miss much about their time in D.C. — not the abysmal cafeteria food, not the weekly round-trip flights and especially not the polarization and gridlock.
Partisan fights aside, several former members also like the small luxuries of being freed from the Hill. Former Rep. Ken Buck told Riley that people warned him a departure from Congress would mean his phone calls wouldn’t be as easily picked up. Buck’s response? He doesn’t care, because he doesn’t call anyone these days (a fate we all secretly wish for).
Kennedy Shows His Hand on Autism
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s first official press conference as health secretary was a blunt display of the gap between widely accepted and peer-reviewed science and his own version.
NOTUS’ Margaret Manto reported from yesterday’s presser, where RFK Jr. claimed an “environmental toxin” is at the root of the rise in autism. The HHS secretary’s comments “run counter to the current scientific consensus on the causes of autism,” Margaret writes — but RFK Jr. doesn’t seem to think that’ll be an issue come the September deadline he’s set for determining its cause.
“We’re going to follow the science no matter what it says,” he told reporters at the presser.
It remains to be seen how that’ll play out, given that the science already suggests that an increase in autism diagnoses comes from improved awareness and diagnostic criteria, plus a mix of environmental and genetic factors.
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- When the Fight for Democracy is Personal by David A. Graham for The Atlantic
- Meet the Miami Lobbyist Who Helped Bukele Seduce MAGA by Dan Friedman and Stephanie Mencimer for Mother Jones
- The Trump administration’s conflicting messages to the public and the courts by Jessica Piper, Myah Ward and Kyle Cheney for Politico
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